Week 1

Matchup Bonuses can help you predict if a fantasy player will score more or less than usual. We first model the team "Baseline", which represents the fantasy points expected from all team players at the given position. The rest of the table indicates the weekly deviations from this baseline-- i.e. the "matchup bonus". The AVG column therefore represents the rest-of-season strength of schedule.

Player/Team
Baseline
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AVG
Playoffs
Lions 31.4 0.5 4.1 -1.7 2.1 -2.6 -0.1 - 3.2 3.4 -2.0 0.0 1.1 3.4 1.8 1.2 1.2 -2.4 -1.0 0.7 -0.8
Chargers 29.1 2.9 3.9 3.4 1.2 3.1 6.3 1.6 - 4.6 3.8 -2.6 4.0 6.3 0.8 1.3 4.9 0.5 6.0 3.1 3.8
Ravens 24.7 2.5 3.5 2.6 3.8 0.1 3.8 -0.9 1.2 0.0 2.9 -1.8 -0.2 1.8 - 0.8 0.2 1.6 0.4 1.2 0.7
Saints 26.1 1.2 3.1 -0.1 1.9 -0.3 5.2 0.0 -0.4 - 3.3 4.1 0.6 -0.5 4.7 -0.6 -0.8 3.8 3.0 1.7 2.0
Bengals 30.4 1.7 2.9 2.3 -0.6 2.3 -0.6 - 0.4 -0.2 3.3 0.3 -5.6 1.6 -0.4 1.6 -0.5 2.2 2.0 0.7 1.2
Raiders 22.7 2.2 2.2 2.5 1.2 2.8 0.7 1.9 3.3 -1.2 -1.1 3.3 0.8 -2.3 - 2.3 3.8 1.2 0.5 1.4 1.8
Buccaneers 28.7 2.2 2.1 1.6 2.7 2.4 2.6 2.2 -0.1 2.4 1.4 - 4.8 -3.2 3.1 1.0 2.8 3.7 2.4 2.0 3.0
Vikings 25.9 0.8 1.7 0.0 -1.2 2.6 2.4 - 2.6 3.3 -1.6 -0.3 -0.1 2.7 2.4 0.9 4.5 2.6 -1.1 1.3 2.0
Eagles 27.0 -1.7 1.7 -2.9 -5.6 -0.1 0.3 -1.5 -5.2 -2.1 -0.6 - -0.3 0.8 0.8 -1.0 1.9 -0.5 -1.6 -1.0 0.0
Colts 28.2 1.1 1.5 0.2 3.0 -0.3 -2.3 1.8 1.7 -1.1 2.4 3.1 1.3 3.7 - -1.2 -3.2 3.2 -1.8 0.7 -0.6
Steelers 24.4 -0.2 1.2 0.4 -0.6 -1.9 -1.1 -1.1 -1.1 -1.3 - -1.6 -1.6 0.6 -0.5 -4.5 0.2 -0.4 -2.6 -1.0 -0.9
Packers 28.6 -1.2 0.9 -3.2 -0.2 -2.3 0.1 -1.3 2.3 -1.2 -0.6 -0.1 - 0.4 0.9 -1.0 -0.2 -1.2 -6.3 -0.8 -2.6
Panthers 27.0 0.5 0.6 2.2 -2.4 1.7 - -1.3 -0.5 -0.3 1.2 2.7 0.8 -4.8 1.6 0.6 0.6 -1.0 2.0 0.2 0.5
Cardinals 23.2 -0.5 0.6 1.8 -1.8 -2.6 1.3 1.1 1.6 0.0 -1.1 1.1 -0.9 -0.2 1.3 - -0.3 0.7 -1.4 0.1 -0.3
Texans 28.0 3.3 0.4 5.5 3.4 3.9 -1.1 2.4 4.3 - 3.2 -0.5 4.4 5.1 -0.1 -1.2 5.4 0.7 -4.4 2.0 0.6
Seahawks 31.4 0.3 0.4 1.3 -1.8 1.3 0.8 1.1 2.2 -2.9 0.3 0.2 - -1.3 -4.8 1.1 0.2 2.1 -1.1 -0.1 0.4
Giants 26.0 -0.4 0.3 -1.8 -1.0 0.9 -1.7 1.3 1.3 - -1.3 -0.9 2.0 1.8 -0.1 0.8 0.0 -1.1 0.4 0.1 -0.2
Bears 27.2 -1.4 0.2 0.0 -4.6 -1.2 -1.5 0.7 0.5 -4.5 -1.9 - -0.3 2.4 0.2 -2.5 -2.5 -0.3 1.0 -0.9 -0.6
Titans 24.1 0.0 0.1 0.8 -0.5 -0.4 -0.5 2.0 -0.6 -0.1 - 0.5 1.7 -0.6 -1.1 3.3 -0.4 0.4 -0.4 0.3 -0.1
Commanders 25.9 1.6 0.0 1.0 2.4 3.0 0.7 -4.6 - 1.8 2.2 -0.6 -4.0 2.1 -2.9 -0.4 1.6 3.1 -0.3 0.3 1.4
Cowboys 32.8 0.1 -0.1 1.1 0.4 -1.1 1.0 -1.9 -7.4 1.1 0.1 1.5 0.7 2.6 -5.4 - 0.5 2.6 2.0 -0.2 1.7
49ers 27.6 1.1 -0.1 0.7 0.6 2.9 1.7 -4.1 2.8 - -0.6 1.7 3.4 2.1 -0.8 1.1 3.0 -0.2 0.6 0.9 1.1
Bills 26.3 1.7 -0.2 2.6 1.6 2.8 -2.1 -0.1 - 1.1 -2.1 -2.4 0.2 1.8 0.9 -0.5 1.2 0.1 -1.5 0.2 -0.1
Rams 32.5 -0.7 -0.7 -1.7 0.8 -1.1 -1.5 1.6 -0.2 3.0 -1.6 0.2 - 2.1 3.9 -1.0 1.5 1.3 -2.2 0.3 0.2
Jaguars 28.4 -0.1 -0.8 0.0 1.9 -1.3 -0.7 1.2 - -0.7 -0.7 -3.8 -2.3 -2.1 -0.9 -5.2 0.8 -0.2 -1.6 -1.0 -0.3
Browns 21.3 -0.6 -1.1 -0.8 -0.7 0.3 -0.8 0.6 -1.5 -1.3 2.0 -0.1 - -1.7 1.1 0.9 -0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.0
Dolphins 24.3 -0.6 -1.4 -1.7 -0.1 0.9 -1.0 - -2.7 0.1 0.5 1.1 -1.7 -2.1 0.2 -0.8 -1.0 -0.5 -0.5 -0.7 -0.6
Patriots 29.4 0.0 -1.4 1.2 1.1 -0.7 -0.7 0.4 0.7 -0.6 1.0 3.9 - 2.8 1.3 1.8 -3.9 -1.4 2.6 0.5 -0.9
Falcons 25.1 -1.2 -2.0 1.8 -1.1 -3.4 2.9 3.4 2.6 -1.6 -1.3 2.9 - 0.7 4.4 -2.2 -2.8 1.3 3.1 0.5 0.5
Chiefs 28.9 0.1 -2.2 1.8 -0.1 0.7 - 1.7 1.7 1.1 0.6 2.7 0.7 0.3 2.9 -0.9 -2.0 0.6 3.4 0.8 0.7
Jets 23.6 0.7 -2.4 1.1 4.0 0.1 0.2 1.7 0.5 0.2 1.4 0.8 3.4 -1.2 - 1.9 2.0 2.4 2.3 1.2 2.3
Broncos 30.8 0.2 -4.5 2.7 2.8 -0.1 3.1 3.3 1.5 2.3 -1.1 - 0.0 -0.2 1.4 -1.2 0.4 1.4 1.5 0.8 1.1

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