Predictive insights with statistical integrity
My fantasy rankings and accuracy reports get too much of the attention.
What people really stay for is a shared love of extracting predictive insights. We don’t just want rankings. We want to understand the real drivers. We want confidence in the reasoning behind our fantasy decisions.
At Subvertadown, my hand-tailored AI reveals what data's most meaningful. And it's broken down so you can easily understand and choose the best odds.
Freely browse the live examples on this page: guidance for multi-week planning, visuals that explain what causes a high or low ranking, advice on betting lines and timing, and lots of nuggets for your strategy.
INGLEWOOD, CA - OCTOBER 02: San Francisco 49ers defensive back Deommodore Lenoir (2) dives to try and tackle Los Angeles Rams running back Kyren Williams (23) during the NFL game between the San Francisco 49ers and the Los Angeles Rams on October 2, 2025, at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, CA. (Photo by Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire)
Strategize who you stream—and plan your “holds” by using 17-week forecasting charts.
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| Steelers | Browns 10.2 | Bengals 6.3 | Packers 4.1 | Colts 5.3 | Chargers 4.9 | Bengals 7.5 | Bears 4.9 | Bills 3.7 | Ravens 5.6 | Dolphins 10.7 | Lions 2.0 | Browns 8.8 | 6.2 | 7.2 |
| Packers | Bengals 8.6 | Cardinals 6.7 | Steelers 6.3 | Panthers 6.9 | Eagles 6.3 | Giants 9.3 | Vikings 6.4 | Lions 2.9 | Bears 6.7 | Broncos 6.3 | Bears 5.8 | Ravens 6.9 | 6.6 | 6.4 |
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| Josh Allen | BUF | Falcons 22.0 | BYE - | Panthers 21.9 | Chiefs 22.3 | Dolphins 21.5 | Buccaneers 23.4 | Texans 22.0 | Steelers 21.9 | Bengals 23.4 | Patriots 21.4 | Browns 21.1 | Eagles 20.8 | 22.0 | 21.1 |
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | Lions 21.1 | Raiders 20.8 | Commanders 19.2 | Bills 18.2 | BYE - | Broncos 15.8 | Colts 19.6 | Cowboys 22.2 | Texans 18.5 | Chargers 19.8 | Titans 20.5 | Broncos 18.2 | 19.4 | 19.5 |
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| Chase McLaughlin | TB | 49ers 9.7 | Lions 9.8 | Saints 11.0 | BYE - | Patriots 10.0 | Bills 9.4 | Rams 10.0 | Cardinals 10.6 | Saints 10.6 | Falcons 9.6 | Panthers 10.5 | Dolphins 11.1 | 10.2 | 10.4 |
| Michael Badgley | IND | Cardinals 9.7 | Chargers 9.1 | Titans 9.7 | Steelers 8.7 | Falcons 9.1 | BYE - | Chiefs 8.1 | Texans 9.3 | Jaguars 8.8 | Seahawks 8.5 | 49ers 9.2 | Jaguars 9.8 | 9.1 | 9.2 |
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Members here mostly care what’s behind the numbers: rigorous models. But the website goes further by also interpreting the reasons behind each recommendation. So try hovering over the tool-tips for deeper explanations, to help you reason your weekly pick.
Quarterbacks
| Wk 6 Proj. Stats | ||||||||||
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PaY
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| Josh Allen |
Why so high?
Why so low?
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BUF @ ATL | ATL 22.0 | BYE - | Panthers 21.9 | 7.2 | 231 | 46 | 1.8 | 0.8 |
| Patrick Mahomes |
Why so high?
Why so low?
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KC vs. DET | DET 21.0 | Raiders 20.8 | Commanders 19.2 | 6.7 | 251 | 37 | 1.8 | 0.9 |
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D/STs
| Wk 6 Proj. Stats | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Steelers vs. Browns |
Steelers Week 6Similar historical matchups
Why so high?
Why so low?
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CLE 10.2 |
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- | - | 4.8 | 16.1 | 303 | 1.1 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.18 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Packers vs. Bengals |
Packers Week 6Similar historical matchups
Why so high?
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CIN 8.6 |
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- | - | 5.1 | 14.6 | 266 | 1.1 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.17 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Kickers
| Wk 6 Proj. Risk | Wk 6 Proj. Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Player | Matchup |
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4thD
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0-29 | 30-39 | 40-49 | 50+ |
XP
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Impl. score |
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| Chase McLaughlin | TB vs. SF |
Chase McLaughlin
Similar historical matchups
Why so high?
Why so low?
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SF 9.7 | Lions 9.8 | Saints 11.0 | Y | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 2.3 | 25.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Matthew Wright | TEN @ LV |
Joey Slye
Similar historical matchups
Why so high?
Why so low?
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LV 9.7 | Patriots - | Colts - | - | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1.7 | 18.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
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‘Strength of Schedule (SoS) forecasts the difficulty for a team’s, for future weeks. These charts are based on multi-dimensional predictive models, which makes them much more reliable than plain “fantasy points allowed” that you might find elsewhere, if you’re making your roster decisions based on opponents.
Matchup Bonuses can help you predict if a fantasy player will score more or less than usual. We first model the team "Baseline", which represents the fantasy points expected from all team players at the given position. The rest of the table indicates the weekly deviations from this baseline-- i.e. the "matchup bonus". The AVG column therefore represents the rest-of-season strength of schedule.
Running Backs
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| Patriots | 19.6 | 0.2 | Saints 1.3 | Titans 2.5 | Browns -1.7 | Falcons -1.4 | Buccaneers -0.8 | Jets 0.8 | Bengals 2.2 | Giants 1.7 | BYE - | Bills -0.4 | Ravens 3.2 | Jets 0.2 | 0.7 | 1.0 |
| Titans | 15.7 | -0.3 | Raiders 0.5 | Patriots -0.5 | Colts -0.7 | Chargers -0.5 | BYE - | Texans -0.5 | Seahawks -0.5 | Jaguars 1.0 | Browns -1.7 | 49ers -0.2 | Chiefs -0.5 | Saints 2.0 | -0.1 | 0.4 |
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Wide Receivers
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| Browns | 21.7 | -0.8 | Steelers -1.9 | Dolphins 0.2 | Patriots -0.8 | BYE - | Jets 0.6 | Ravens 5.6 | Raiders 3.6 | 49ers 1.2 | Titans 3.5 | Bears 0.5 | Bills 1.2 | Steelers 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.9 |
| Vikings | 27.3 | 1.8 | BYE - | Eagles 1.6 | Chargers 2.1 | Lions 1.7 | Ravens 6.5 | Bears 4.0 | Packers -0.4 | Seahawks -2.1 | Commanders 3.8 | Cowboys 4.4 | Giants 1.3 | Lions 3.7 | 2.4 | 3.1 |
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Tight Ends
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| Chargers | 7.5 | 0.9 | Dolphins 2.5 | Colts 0.9 | Vikings 0.5 | Titans -0.3 | Steelers 3.1 | Jaguars -0.7 | BYE - | Raiders -0.4 | Eagles -1.1 | Chiefs -0.5 | Cowboys 1.1 | Texans 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| Seahawks | 10.2 | -0.8 | Jaguars -0.4 | Texans -0.6 | BYE - | Commanders -1.4 | Cardinals -0.4 | Rams 0.8 | Titans -0.5 | Vikings -0.1 | Falcons -1.3 | Colts 0.3 | Rams 0.7 | Panthers -0.5 | -0.3 | 0.2 |
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Betting lines: A portfolio of suggested likely betting options, among spreads and O/Us. In addition to scaling the level of each wager, it also suggests whether to bet near opening or closing.
Bets for Open
Spreads
| Original Spreads (Tuesday) and Updates | Current Spreads (if placed after Tuesday) | ||||||||
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| Orig. Pick | Orig. Line | Opponent | Orig. Bet | Update | Revised Pick? | Curr. Line | Bet Until | Current | |
| EaglesTNF | -7.5 | Giants | $7 | - | - | -7.3 | -8.9 | $7 | |
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O/U
| Original O/U (Tuesday) and Updates | Current O/U (if placed after Tuesday) | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | Away | Orig. Pick | Orig. Line | Orig. Bet | Update | Revised Pick? | Curr. Line | Bet Until | Current | |
| GiantsTNF | Eagles | O | 41.5 | $6 | - | - | 40.7 | 42.4 | $6 | |
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Bets for Close
Spreads
| Bet On | Current Line | Opponent | Bet | Bet Until |
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| Jaguars | 1.1 | Seahawks | $7 | -0.3 |
O/U
| Home | Away | Orig. Pick | Current Line | Bet On | Bet | Bet Until |
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Preview how I turn stats into useful reasoning! The pros-and-cons lists have extracted statistical drivers from key data. This can supplement your kicker choices, no matter what rankings you use!
Even if you're not subscribed for our full ordered rankings, we provide the following pros-and-cons list for all kickers. The reasonings are based on statistical drivers extracted from key data, so the explanations can give you insight into why a kicker is ranked where it is. Regardless of whose kicker rankings you use each week, this should help you make a better informed decision.
| Pros | Cons | ||
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| Chase McLaughlin | TB vs. SF |
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| Matthew Wright | TEN @ LV |
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D/ST scores are crowd-sourced from your votes, in the D/ST Pick6x6 contest.
D/ST
Week 6
Packers *
Packers Week 6
Similar historical matchups
| Matchup | Year | Wk | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Similar | 49ers vs Cardinals | 2023 | 4 | 1 |
| Similar | Jets vs Commanders | 2015 | 6 | 7 |
| Boom | Eagles vs Giants | 2021 | 16 | 18 |
| Bust | 49ers vs Cardinals | 2023 | 4 | 1 |
Crowd-sourced average from 61 votes
Why so high?
- 3rd least points allowed acc. betting lines
- 2nd largest downgrade to opposing offense
Why so low?
- 7th largest upgrade to opposing QB
Rams *
Rams Week 6
Similar historical matchups
| Matchup | Year | Wk | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Similar | Packers vs Vikings | 2024 | 9 | 1 |
| Similar | Eagles vs Packers | 2024 | 12 | 10 |
| Boom | 49ers vs Rams | 2021 | 10 | 17 |
| Bust | Giants vs Colts | 2014 | 9 | -5 |
Crowd-sourced average from 61 votes
Why so high?
- 8th least points allowed acc. betting lines
- 12th lowest yards allowed rating
Colts *
Colts Week 6
Similar historical matchups
| Matchup | Year | Wk | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Similar | Lions vs Seahawks | 2023 | 7 | |
| Similar | Cowboys vs Rams | 2023 | 13 | |
| Boom | Buccaneers vs Bears | 2021 | 7 | 18 |
| Bust | Falcons @ Broncos | 2024 | 11 | -5 |
Crowd-sourced average from 61 votes
Why so high?
- 2nd least points allowed acc. betting lines
- most interceptions thrown by opponent
Why so low?
- largest upgrade to opposing QB
- 3rd largest upgrade to opposing offense
Broncos *
Broncos Week 6
Similar historical matchups
| Matchup | Year | Wk | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Similar | Broncos vs Vikings | 2015 | 5 | 12 |
| Similar | Chiefs vs Chargers | 2017 | 4 | 6 |
| Boom | Steelers @ Bills | 2021 | 1 | 11 |
| Bust | Texans @ Ravens | 2019 | 11 | -7 |
Crowd-sourced average from 61 votes
Why so high?
- least points allowed acc. betting lines
- 3rd lowest yards allowed rating
Steelers *
Steelers Week 6
Similar historical matchups
| Matchup | Year | Wk | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Similar | Steelers @ Raiders | 2024 | 6 | 12 |
| Similar | Jets vs Patriots | 2024 | 3 | 16 |
| Boom | Jets vs Patriots | 2024 | 3 | 16 |
| Bust | Bears @ Dolphins | 2018 | 6 | -1 |
Crowd-sourced average from 61 votes
Why so high?
- 6th least points allowed acc. betting lines
- largest downgrade to opposing QB
Raiders *
Raiders Week 6
Similar historical matchups
| Matchup | Year | Wk | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Similar | Cowboys vs Commanders | 2022 | 16 | |
| Similar | Colts vs Saints | 2023 | 10 | |
| Boom | Rams @ Jaguars | 2017 | 6 | 19 |
| Bust | 49ers vs Dolphins | 2020 | 5 | -4 |
Crowd-sourced average from 61 votes
Why so high?
- 4th least points allowed acc. betting lines
- 6th lowest yards allowed rating
Why so low?
- 10th lowest interceptions rating
- 5th least interceptions thrown by opponent
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Score expectations for all 32 teams, trained to account for all team aspects on both sides of the ball. QBs, D/STs, and Kickers.
Quarterback
Week 6
Josh Allen | BUF
Why so high?
- 3rd highest QB rushing stats
- 3rd most points expected acc. betting lines
Why so low?
- 8th highest chance of RBs taking points
Patrick Mahomes | KC
Why so high?
- 2nd most points expected acc. betting lines
- 6th highest QB rushing stats
Why so low?
- weather
Jalen Hurts | PHI
Why so high?
- 5th highest QB rushing stats
- downgrade to opposing defense
Why so low?
- divisional game
Daniel Jones | IND
Why so high?
- 5th most points expected acc. betting lines
- 7th worst opponent pass defense
Why so low?
- 3rd highest chance of RBs taking points
- 4th lowest passing volume
Jordan Love | GB
Why so high?
- most points expected acc. betting lines
- upgrade to receivers
Why so low?
- weather
- 5th highest chance of RBs taking points
Jayden Daniels | WAS
Why so high?
- 2nd highest QB rushing stats
- 4th most points expected acc. betting lines
Why so low?
- weather
- 7th highest chance of RBs taking points
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This is the most useful way to think about your kicker’s opportunities! Get unique insight to each kicker’s volumes and likely field positions.
Chase McLaughlin
- Not significantly different from the average kicker situation.
It’s not only the projection that matters! It’s key to consider the range of possible outcomes. My algorithms search for the most similar historical matches and show you what actually happened.
Similar historical matchups
| Matchup | Year | Wk | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Similar | 49ers vs Cardinals | 2023 | 4 | 1 |
| Similar | Jets vs Commanders | 2015 | 6 | 7 |
| Boom | Eagles vs Giants | 2021 | 16 | 18 |
| Bust | 49ers vs Cardinals | 2023 | 4 | 1 |
Specialized advice for Survivor, based on my own game score models—and my own optimization algorithm. Covers 3 surviving pathways all season!
Path 3A
| Week | Team |
|---|---|
| 1 | PHI |
| 2 | SF |
| 3 | SEA |
| 4 | HOU |
| 5 | DET |
| 6 | IND |
| 7 | DEN |
| 8 | ATL |
| 9 | GB |
| 10 | BUF |
| 11 | WAS |
| 12 | NE |
| 13 | TB |
| 14 | KC |
| 15 | DAL |
| 16 | BAL |
| 17 | LV |
| Longevity | 4.4 |
Path 3B
| Week | Team |
|---|---|
| 1 | PHI |
| 2 | SF |
| 3 | SEA |
| 4 | HOU |
| 5 | DET |
| 6 | GB |
| 7 | PIT |
| 8 | IND |
| 9 | LAR |
| 10 | BUF |
| 11 | WAS |
| 12 | ATL |
| 13 | NE |
| 14 | MIN |
| 15 | KC |
| 16 | DEN |
| 17 | LV |
| Longevity | 4.8 |