Predictive insights with statistical integrity
My fantasy rankings and accuracy reports get too much of the attention.
What people really stay for is a shared love of extracting predictive insights. We don’t just want rankings. We want to understand the real drivers. We want confidence in the reasoning behind our fantasy decisions.
At Subvertadown, my hand-tailored AI reveals what data's most meaningful. And it's broken down so you can easily understand and choose the best odds.
Freely browse the live examples on this page: guidance for multi-week planning, visuals that explain what causes a high or low ranking, advice on betting lines and timing, and lots of nuggets for your strategy.
EAST RUTHERFORD, NJ - SEPTEMBER 14: Taylor Rapp #9 of the Buffalo Bills tackles Garrett Wilson #5 of the New York Jetsduring the game on September 14, 2025 at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey. (Photo by Rich Graessle/Icon Sportswire)
Strategize who you stream—and plan your “holds” by using 17-week forecasting charts.
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| Packers | Browns 9.2 | Cowboys 6.2 | BYE - | Bengals 9.7 | Cardinals 7.6 | Steelers 8.5 | Panthers 10.3 | Eagles 8.0 | Giants 9.1 | Vikings 9.9 | Lions 4.5 | Bears 9.4 | Broncos 6.5 | Bears 9.3 | Ravens 7.0 | 8.2 | 7.6 |
| Buccaneers | Jets 8.9 | Eagles 7.1 | Seahawks 6.1 | 49ers 3.3 | Lions 4.2 | Saints 7.1 | BYE - | Patriots 8.8 | Bills 2.7 | Rams 4.1 | Cardinals 7.7 | Saints 7.5 | Falcons 7.6 | Panthers 9.1 | Dolphins 7.6 | 6.6 | 8.1 |
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| Josh Allen | BUF | Dolphins 23.6 | Saints 23.2 | Patriots 22.4 | Falcons 20.5 | BYE - | Panthers 21.1 | Chiefs 22.9 | Dolphins 23.3 | Buccaneers 22.9 | Texans 22.1 | Steelers 23.0 | Bengals 22.5 | Patriots 21.6 | Browns 21.0 | Eagles 21.8 | 22.3 | 21.5 |
| Lamar Jackson | BAL | Lions 23.3 | Chiefs 21.8 | Texans 21.5 | Rams 21.8 | BYE - | Bears 22.6 | Dolphins 23.0 | Vikings 21.6 | Browns 20.5 | Jets 21.0 | Bengals 22.0 | Steelers 23.3 | Bengals 21.3 | Patriots 21.9 | Packers 19.4 | 21.8 | 20.8 |
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| John Parker Romo | ATL | Panthers 9.5 | Commanders 9.2 | BYE - | Bills 9.1 | 49ers 8.1 | Dolphins 9.4 | Patriots 8.5 | Colts 9.0 | Panthers 9.1 | Saints 9.2 | Jets 9.0 | Seahawks 9.3 | Buccaneers 8.8 | Cardinals 9.1 | Rams 9.1 | 9.0 | 9.0 |
| Spencer Shrader | IND | Titans 9.2 | Rams 8.3 | Raiders 9.2 | Cardinals 9.5 | Chargers 8.0 | Titans 9.1 | Steelers 8.9 | Falcons 9.2 | BYE - | Chiefs 8.4 | Texans 9.1 | Jaguars 8.8 | Seahawks 8.9 | 49ers 8.6 | Jaguars 9.1 | 8.9 | 8.9 |
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Members here mostly care what’s behind the numbers: rigorous models. But the website goes further by also interpreting the reasons behind each recommendation. So try hovering over the tool-tips for deeper explanations, to help you reason your weekly pick.
Quarterbacks
| Wk 3 Proj. Stats | ||||||||||
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Wk 3
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PaY
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RuY
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PTD
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| Josh Allen |
Why so high?
Why so low?
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BUF vs. MIA | MIA 23.6 | Saints 23.2 | Patriots 22.4 | 6.8 | 270 | 42 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| Lamar Jackson |
Why so high?
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BAL vs. DET | DET 23.3 | Chiefs 21.8 | Texans 21.5 | 6.6 | 263 | 36 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
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D/STs
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| Packers @ Browns |
Packers Week 3Similar historical matchups
Why so high?
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CLE 9.2 |
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- | 5.3 | 16.7 | 260 | 0.8 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.17 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Buccaneers vs. Jets |
Buccaneers Week 3Similar historical matchups
Why so high?
Why so low?
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NYJ 9.0 |
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- | - | 4.7 | 18.5 | 293 | 0.8 | 3.0 | 0.6 | 0.15 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Kickers
| Wk 3 Proj. Risk | Wk 3 Proj. Stats | |||||||||||||||
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| John Parker Romo | ATL @ CAR |
John Parker Romo
Why so high?
Why so low?
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CAR 9.5 | Commanders 9.2 | BYE - | Y | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 2.4 | 24.7 |
| Brandon Aubrey | DAL @ CHI |
Brandon Aubrey
Why so high?
Why so low?
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CHI 9.3 | Packers - | Jets - | Y | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.3 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 2.4 | 24.6 |
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‘Strength of Schedule (SoS) forecasts the difficulty for a team’s, for future weeks. These charts are based on multi-dimensional predictive models, which makes them much more reliable than plain “fantasy points allowed” that you might find elsewhere, if you’re making your roster decisions based on opponents.
Matchup Bonuses can help you predict if a fantasy player will score more or less than usual. We first model the team "Baseline", which represents the fantasy points expected from all team players at the given position. The rest of the table indicates the weekly deviations from this baseline-- i.e. the "matchup bonus". The AVG column therefore represents the rest-of-season strength of schedule.
Running Backs
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| Titans | 14.2 | 0.4 | Colts 1.3 | Texans -0.2 | Cardinals 0.9 | Raiders -0.5 | Patriots 0.6 | Colts 1.0 | Chargers -0.5 | BYE - | Texans 0.3 | Seahawks 1.0 | Jaguars 1.4 | Browns -0.7 | 49ers 0.3 | Chiefs -0.3 | Saints 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.7 |
| Browns | 20.0 | -0.3 | Packers -2.7 | Lions -0.4 | Vikings 0.5 | Steelers 1.3 | Dolphins 1.0 | Patriots -0.7 | BYE - | Jets 0.3 | Ravens 0.4 | Raiders -1.2 | 49ers -0.1 | Titans 2.8 | Bears 2.1 | Bills -0.4 | Steelers 2.6 | 0.4 | 1.4 |
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Wide Receivers
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| Chiefs | 29.4 | 0.9 | Giants 2.6 | Ravens 0.5 | Jaguars -2.4 | Lions 2.9 | Raiders 3.2 | Commanders 0.3 | Bills -4.7 | BYE - | Broncos -3.1 | Colts 2.5 | Cowboys 5.9 | Texans 0.4 | Chargers -0.4 | Titans 2.7 | Broncos -1.1 | 0.7 | 0.4 |
| Cardinals | 22.1 | 1.4 | 49ers 0.4 | Seahawks 0.2 | Titans 4.6 | Colts 0.5 | Packers -1.7 | BYE - | Cowboys 4.0 | Seahawks -2.0 | 49ers 2.9 | Jaguars 4.4 | Buccaneers -1.1 | Rams -0.5 | Texans 1.3 | Falcons 0.6 | Bengals 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 |
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Tight Ends
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| Giants | 6.1 | -0.4 | Chiefs -0.6 | Chargers -0.8 | Saints 1.0 | Eagles -1.1 | Broncos -0.7 | Eagles -1.4 | 49ers 0.4 | Bears -0.1 | Packers 0.5 | Lions 0.0 | Patriots -0.8 | BYE - | Commanders 1.2 | Vikings 0.0 | Raiders -0.7 | -0.2 | 0.1 |
| Texans | 9.2 | 0.2 | Jaguars -1.0 | Titans 1.4 | Ravens 0.4 | BYE - | Seahawks -0.5 | 49ers -0.1 | Broncos -0.2 | Jaguars 0.3 | Titans 0.5 | Bills 0.1 | Colts -0.1 | Chiefs -1.2 | Cardinals 0.5 | Raiders -0.1 | Chargers -1.5 | -0.1 | -0.4 |
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Betting lines: A portfolio of suggested likely betting options, among spreads and O/Us. In addition to scaling the level of each wager, it also suggests whether to bet near opening or closing.
Spreads
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Curr. line
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| Panthers | 5.5 | Falcons | $800 | Close |
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Over / Under
| Home | Away |
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| Bills | Dolphins | 50.0 | U | $800 | Open |
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Preview how I turn stats into useful reasoning! The pros-and-cons lists have extracted statistical drivers from key data. This can supplement your kicker choices, no matter what rankings you use!
Even if you're not subscribed for our full ordered rankings, we provide the following pros-and-cons list for all kickers. The reasonings are based on statistical drivers extracted from key data, so the explanations can give you insight into why a kicker is ranked where it is. Regardless of whose kicker rankings you use each week, this should help you make a better informed decision.
| Pros | Cons | ||
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| Brandon Aubrey | DAL @ CHI |
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| John Parker Romo | ATL @ CAR |
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D/ST scores are crowd-sourced from your votes, in the D/ST Pick6x6 contest.
D/ST
Week 3
Colts *
Colts Week 3
Similar historical matchups
| Matchup | Year | Wk | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Similar | Bills @ Commanders | 2023 | 3 | 31 |
| Similar | Bears vs Titans | 2024 | 1 | 24 |
| Boom | Bills @ Commanders | 2023 | 3 | 31 |
| Bust | Bengals vs Commanders | 2024 | 3 | -2 |
Crowd-sourced average from 44 votes
Why so high?
- 3rd least points allowed acc. betting lines
- 2nd largest downgrade to opposing QB
Why so low?
- 2nd lowest interceptions rating
- largest upgrade to opposing offense
Seahawks *
Seahawks Week 3
Similar historical matchups
| Matchup | Year | Wk | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Similar | Ravens vs Texans | 2023 | 1 | 12 |
| Similar | Seahawks vs Bengals | 2019 | 1 | 8 |
| Boom | Packers vs Broncos | 2019 | 3 | 13 |
| Bust | Buccaneers vs Broncos | 2024 | 3 | 1 |
Crowd-sourced average from 44 votes
Why so high?
- 5th least points allowed acc. betting lines
- 4th lowest yards allowed rating
Why so low?
- 11th lowest interceptions rating
Seahawks *
Seahawks Week 3
Similar historical matchups
| Matchup | Year | Wk | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Similar | Ravens vs Texans | 2023 | 1 | 12 |
| Similar | Seahawks vs Bengals | 2019 | 1 | 8 |
| Boom | Packers vs Broncos | 2019 | 3 | 13 |
| Bust | Buccaneers vs Broncos | 2024 | 3 | 1 |
Crowd-sourced average from 44 votes
Why so high?
- 5th least points allowed acc. betting lines
- 4th lowest yards allowed rating
Why so low?
- 11th lowest interceptions rating
Buccaneers *
Buccaneers Week 3
Similar historical matchups
| Matchup | Year | Wk | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Similar | Bengals vs Steelers | 2022 | 1 | 4 |
| Similar | Titans vs Giants | 2022 | 1 | 8 |
| Boom | Bears vs Giants | 2020 | 2 | 13 |
| Bust | Titans vs Jaguars | 2020 | 2 | 0 |
Crowd-sourced average from 44 votes
Why so high?
- 2nd least points allowed acc. betting lines
- 2nd lowest yards allowed rating
Chiefs *
Chiefs Week 3
Similar historical matchups
| Matchup | Year | Wk | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Similar | Chargers @ Bengals | 2020 | 1 | 12 |
| Similar | Ravens vs Bengals | 2021 | 7 | -6 |
| Boom | Jaguars @ Falcons | 2023 | 4 | 21 |
| Bust | Ravens vs Bengals | 2021 | 7 | -6 |
Crowd-sourced average from 44 votes
Why so high?
- 8th least points allowed acc. betting lines
- 10th lowest yards allowed rating
Why so low?
- largest upgrade to opposing QB
- 3rd largest upgrade to opposing offense
Browns *
Browns Week 3
Similar historical matchups
| Matchup | Year | Wk | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Similar | Packers vs Cowboys | 2022 | 10 | 2 |
| Similar | Jets vs Chiefs | 2023 | 4 | 2 |
| Boom | Patriots @ Bengals | 2024 | 1 | 12 |
| Bust | Panthers @ Seahawks | 2023 | 3 | -2 |
Crowd-sourced average from 44 votes
Why so high?
- 7th least points allowed acc. betting lines
- 8th lowest yards allowed rating
Why so low?
- 6th lowest interceptions rating
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Score expectations for all 32 teams, trained to account for all team aspects on both sides of the ball. QBs, D/STs, and Kickers.
Quarterback
Week 3
Josh Allen | BUF
Why so high?
- most points expected acc. betting lines
- 3rd highest QB rushing stats
Why so low?
- 2nd highest chance of RBs taking points
- divisional game
Lamar Jackson | BAL
Why so high?
- 2nd most points expected acc. betting lines
- highest QB rushing stats
Patrick Mahomes | KC
Why so high?
- 2nd highest QB rushing stats
- 5th most points expected acc. betting lines
Why so low?
- 11th lowest pass efficiency
Caleb Williams | CHI
Why so high?
- 5th highest QB rushing stats
- 3rd most points expected acc. betting lines
Why so low?
- weather
- 3rd lowest pass efficiency
Jalen Hurts | PHI
Why so high?
- 4th highest QB rushing stats
- 2nd highest pass efficiency
Why so low?
- 11th highest chance of RBs taking points
Justin Herbert | LAC
Why so high?
- 4th lowest chance of RBs taking points
- 8th highest QB rushing stats
Why so low?
- divisional game
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D/ST bar charts tell you HOW defense is expected to generate its fantasy points for the week. Challenge your own notion of the game script, and choose the right “fingerprint” for your league scoring settings– and your preferred streaming strategy.
Colts Week 3
This is the most useful way to think about your kicker’s opportunities! Get unique insight to each kicker’s volumes and likely field positions.
John Parker Romo
- Less likely to stall upfield. and more likely to kick near the endzone
- Fewer drives stalling before reaching kicking range
- Bolstered by a floor of RZ opportunities.
It’s not only the projection that matters! It’s key to consider the range of possible outcomes. My algorithms search for the most similar historical matches and show you what actually happened.
Similar historical matchups
| Matchup | Year | Wk | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Similar | Bills @ Commanders | 2023 | 3 | 31 |
| Similar | Bears vs Titans | 2024 | 1 | 24 |
| Boom | Bills @ Commanders | 2023 | 3 | 31 |
| Bust | Bengals vs Commanders | 2024 | 3 | -2 |
Specialized advice for Survivor, based on my own game score models—and my own optimization algorithm. Covers 3 surviving pathways all season!
Path 3A
| Week | Team |
|---|---|
| 1 | PHI |
| 2 | SF |
| 3 | SEA |
| 4 | DET |
| 5 | ARI |
| 6 | GB |
| 7 | DEN |
| 8 | IND |
| 9 | LAR |
| 10 | LAC |
| 11 | BUF |
| 12 | BAL |
| 13 | JAC |
| 14 | KC |
| 15 | WAS |
| 16 | LV |
| 17 | NE |
| Longevity | 4.4 |
Path 3B
| Week | Team |
|---|---|
| 1 | PHI |
| 2 | SF |
| 3 | BUF |
| 4 | HOU |
| 5 | ARI |
| 6 | GB |
| 7 | DEN |
| 8 | IND |
| 9 | LAR |
| 10 | LAC |
| 11 | ATL |
| 12 | DET |
| 13 | BAL |
| 14 | MIA |
| 15 | TB |
| 16 | LV |
| 17 | NE |
| Longevity | 3.8 |