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At Subvertadown, my hand-tailored AI reveals what data's most meaningful. And it's broken down so you can easily understand and choose the best odds.
Freely browse the live examples on this page: guidance for multi-week planning, visuals that explain what causes a high or low ranking, advice on betting lines and timing, and lots of nuggets for your strategy.
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AVG
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Playoffs
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| Patriots | Titans 11.6 | Browns 10.5 | Falcons 7.9 | Buccaneers 8.0 | Jets 10.9 | Bengals 10.3 | Giants 10.1 | BYE - | Bills 6.2 | Ravens 0.4 | Jets 9.6 | 8.5 | 5.4 |
| Chiefs | Raiders 10.7 | Commanders 6.8 | Bills 5.4 | BYE - | Broncos 6.7 | Colts 7.9 | Cowboys 1.1 | Texans 14.1 | Chargers 14.4 | Titans 13.1 | Broncos 4.3 | 8.5 | 10.6 |
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| Player/Team Projections represent team QB, so future weeks sometimes refer to a different starting QB. |
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Playoffs
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| Chris Oladokun | KC | Raiders 23.9 | Commanders 22.9 | Bills 23.1 | BYE - | Broncos 20.9 | Colts 23.0 | Cowboys 27.9 | Texans 20.5 | Chargers 24.0 | Titans 17.9 | Broncos 11.0 | 21.5 | 17.6 |
| Josh Johnson | WAS | Cowboys 22.5 | Chiefs 15.6 | Seahawks 16.2 | Lions 15.2 | Dolphins 12.6 | BYE - | Broncos 6.7 | Vikings 8.8 | Giants 10.3 | Eagles 8.6 | Cowboys 4.1 | 12.1 | 7.6 |
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| Player/Team |
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AVG
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Playoffs
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| Brandon Aubrey | DAL | Commanders 9.6 | Broncos 8.0 | Cardinals 10.5 | BYE - | Raiders 10.0 | Eagles 10.9 | Chiefs 9.0 | Lions 10.3 | Vikings 11.3 | Chargers 11.3 | Commanders 10.2 | 10.1 | 10.9 |
| Chris Boswell | PIT | Bengals 9.4 | Packers 8.8 | Colts 9.3 | Chargers 10.7 | Bengals 9.8 | Bears 8.8 | Bills 8.3 | Ravens 6.8 | Dolphins 8.3 | Lions 8.3 | Browns 9.6 | 8.9 | 8.7 |
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| Wk 7 Proj. Stats | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player Projections represent team QB, so future weeks sometimes refer to a different starting QB. | Matchup |
Wk 7
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Wk 8
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Wk 9
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Err.
This is an estimate of confidence in the projection. A lower error means less deviation is expected — this should mean a higher floor but also a lower ceiling.
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PaY
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RuY
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PTD
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Int.
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| Chris Oladokun |
Why so high?
Why so low?
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KC vs. LV | LV 23.9 | Commanders 22.9 | Bills 23.1 | 6.2 | 262 | 41 | 2.2 | 0.5 |
| Josh Johnson |
Why so high?
Why so low?
|
WAS @ DAL | DAL 22.5 | Chiefs 15.6 | Seahawks 16.2 | 6.4 | 229 | 52 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
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| Wk 7 Proj. Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team |
Wk 7
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Wk 7 Trend |
Wk 8
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Wk 9
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Hold? Is this player/team a likely top-8 hold rest of season? |
Err.
This is an estimate of confidence in the projection. A lower error means less deviation is expected — this should mean a higher floor but also a lower ceiling.
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PA
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YA
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Int.
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Sacks
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FR
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TD
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| Patriots @ Titans |
Patriots Week 7Similar historical matchups
Why so high?
|
TEN 11.6 |
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Browns 10.5 | Falcons 7.9 | 4.7 | 16.7 | 278 | 0.8 | 2.9 | 0.6 | 0.18 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Chiefs vs. Raiders |
Chiefs Week 7Similar historical matchups
Why so high?
|
LV 10.7 |
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Commanders 6.8 | Bills 5.4 | 4.7 | 15.5 | 279 | 0.8 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.16 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Wk 7 Proj. Risk
The headings in the Risk section are useful for explaining the range of outcomes that is likely for each kicker.
Err: The likelihood of results being far from the projected number. 4thD: A modeled estimate of the # of 4th downs that the team will attempt. Missed: A modeled estimate of the # kicks likely to be missed, based on many game factors including weather. Ceil: The likeliest outcome above the main projection. Fl: The likeliest outcome below the main projection. DD%: The modeled probability of the kicker scoring Double Digits (10+). LD%: The modeled probability of the kicker scoring Low Digits (0-5). |
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| Player | Matchup |
Wk 7
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Wk 8
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Wk 9
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Is this player/team a likely top-8 hold rest of season?
Hold? |
Err. This is an estimate of confidence in the projection. A lower error means less deviation is expected — this should mean a higher floor but also a lower ceiling. |
4thD
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Missed
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Ceil
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Fl
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DD%
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LD%
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FG
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XP
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Implied score of the offense, according to betting lines.
Impl. score |
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| Brandon Aubrey | DAL vs. WAS |
Brandon Aubrey
Similar historical matchups
Why so high?
Why so low?
|
WAS 9.6 | Broncos 8.0 | Cardinals 10.5 | Y | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 12.9 | 6.4 | 41% | 17% | 1.7 | 3 | 28.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Chris Boswell | PIT @ CIN |
Chris Boswell
Similar historical matchups
Why so high?
Why so low?
|
CIN 9.4 | Packers 8.8 | Colts 9.3 | Y | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 12.8 | 6.3 | 45% | 18% | 1.8 | 2.5 | 25.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Matchup Bonuses can help you predict if a fantasy player will score more or less than usual. We first model the team "Baseline", which represents the fantasy points expected from all team players at the given position. The rest of the table indicates the weekly deviations from this baseline-- i.e. the "matchup bonus". The AVG column therefore represents the rest-of-season strength of schedule.
| Player/Team |
Baseline
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Next 4
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AVG
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Playoffs
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patriots | 19.8 | 0.5 | Titans 2.3 | Browns -0.3 | Falcons -0.2 | Buccaneers 0.3 | Jets 2.2 | Bengals 2.6 | Giants 5.7 | BYE - | Bills 4.1 | Ravens 3.1 | Jets 4.3 | 2.4 | 3.8 |
| Bengals | 15.3 | 1.4 | Steelers 0.0 | Jets 1.8 | Bears 2.4 | BYE - | Steelers 1.1 | Patriots 1.3 | Ravens 3.1 | Bills 4.2 | Ravens 3.9 | Dolphins 4.7 | Cardinals 6.8 | 2.9 | 5.1 |
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| Player/Team |
Baseline
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Next 4
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Playoffs
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| Saints | 25.4 | -2.7 | Bears -3.1 | Buccaneers 2.0 | Rams -3.7 | Panthers -6.0 | BYE - | Falcons -5.8 | Dolphins -7.5 | Buccaneers -8.5 | Panthers -3.1 | Jets -6.5 | Titans -9.1 | -5.1 | -6.3 |
| Browns | 16.3 | -2.4 | Dolphins -5.2 | Patriots -2.5 | BYE - | Jets 0.5 | Ravens 4.7 | Raiders 1.1 | 49ers 2.2 | Titans 4.8 | Bears -0.2 | Bills 3.6 | Steelers 3.8 | 1.3 | 2.4 |
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| Player/Team |
Baseline
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Next 4
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Playoffs
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| Chargers | 7.2 | 0.1 | Colts 1.9 | Vikings -0.2 | Titans -1.3 | Steelers -0.1 | Jaguars -1.6 | BYE - | Raiders -1.8 | Eagles -1.1 | Chiefs -2.0 | Cowboys -0.1 | Texans -2.4 | -0.9 | -1.5 |
| Panthers | 10.7 | 0.4 | Jets 0.6 | Bills -0.9 | Packers 0.3 | Saints 1.5 | Falcons -0.8 | 49ers 0.0 | Rams 0.3 | BYE - | Saints 1.3 | Buccaneers 1.0 | Seahawks -0.7 | 0.3 | 0.5 |
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| Original Spreads (Tuesday) and Updates | Current Spreads (if placed after Tuesday) | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orig. Pick | Orig. Line | Opponent | Orig. Bet | Update | Revised Pick? | Curr. Line | Bet Until | Current | |
| Cowboys | -1.5 | Commanders | $7 | - | - | -1.5 | -5.0 | $7 | |
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| Original O/U (Tuesday) and Updates | Current O/U (if placed after Tuesday) | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | Away | Orig. Pick | Orig. Line | Orig. Bet | Update | Revised Pick? | Curr. Line | Bet Until | Current | |
| Bears | Saints | U | 44.1 | $7 | - | - | 44.1 | 41.0 | $7 | |
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Even if you're not subscribed for our full ordered rankings, we provide the following pros-and-cons list for all kickers. The reasonings are based on statistical drivers extracted from key data, so the explanations can give you insight into why a kicker is ranked where it is. Regardless of whose kicker rankings you use each week, this should help you make a better informed decision.
| Pros | Cons | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Aubrey | DAL vs. WAS |
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| Chris Boswell | PIT @ CIN |
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Week 7
Patriots @ TEN
Similar historical matchups
| Matchup | Year | Wk | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Similar | Vikings @ Jaguars | 2024 | 10 | 15 |
| Similar | Bears vs Giants | 2019 | 12 | 6 |
| Boom | Vikings @ Jaguars | 2024 | 10 | 15 |
| Bust | Patriots vs Saints | 2023 | 5 | 1 |
Why so high?
Chiefs vs. LV
Similar historical matchups
| Matchup | Year | Wk | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Similar | Dolphins vs Raiders | 2023 | 11 | 13 |
| Similar | Bills vs Titans | 2024 | 7 | 12 |
| Boom | Dolphins vs Raiders | 2023 | 11 | 13 |
| Bust | Browns vs Jets | 2022 | 2 | 0 |
Why so high?
Browns vs. MIA
Similar historical matchups
| Matchup | Year | Wk | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Similar | Patriots @ Jets | 2023 | 3 | 9 |
| Similar | 49ers vs Seahawks | 2022 | 2 | 13 |
| Boom | Eagles vs Cowboys | 2020 | 8 | 19 |
| Bust | Bills @ Patriots | 2023 | 7 | 1 |
Why so high?
Why so low?
Broncos vs. NYG
Similar historical matchups
| Matchup | Year | Wk | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Similar | Browns vs Jets | 2022 | 2 | 0 |
| Similar | Texans @ Patriots | 2024 | 6 | 14 |
| Boom | Cowboys @ Panthers | 2023 | 11 | 23 |
| Bust | Browns vs Jets | 2022 | 2 | 0 |
Why so high?
Why so low?
Dolphins @ CLE
Similar historical matchups
| Matchup | Year | Wk | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Similar | Jets vs Patriots | 2023 | 3 | 2 |
| Similar | Jaguars @ Patriots | 2024 | 7 | 11 |
| Boom | Chargers vs Raiders | 2024 | 1 | 15 |
| Bust | Falcons @ Panthers | 2022 | 10 | 1 |
Why so high?
Why so low?
Steelers @ CIN
Similar historical matchups
| Matchup | Year | Wk | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Similar | Rams vs Bears | 2020 | 7 | 14 |
| Similar | Panthers vs Jets | 2021 | 1 | 11 |
| Boom | Texans vs Bears | 2024 | 2 | 16 |
| Bust | Broncos vs Raiders | 2021 | 6 | -2 |
Why so high?
Why so low?
Seahawks vs. HOU
Similar historical matchups
| Matchup | Year | Wk | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Similar | 49ers @ Vikings | 2023 | 7 | -3 |
| Similar | Broncos @ Seahawks | 2022 | 1 | 7 |
| Boom | Bills vs Titans | 2022 | 2 | 22 |
| Bust | 49ers @ Vikings | 2023 | 7 | -3 |
Why so high?
Bears vs. NO
Similar historical matchups
| Matchup | Year | Wk | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Similar | Bengals vs Steelers | 2021 | 12 | 18 |
| Similar | Chiefs vs Panthers | 2020 | 9 | -2 |
| Boom | Bengals vs Steelers | 2021 | 12 | 18 |
| Bust | Chiefs vs Panthers | 2020 | 9 | -2 |
Why so high?
Why so low?
Packers @ ARI
Similar historical matchups
| Matchup | Year | Wk | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Similar | Saints vs Jaguars | 2023 | 7 | 4 |
| Similar | Raiders vs Texans | 2022 | 7 | 6 |
| Boom | Ravens vs Dolphins | 2016 | 13 | 14 |
| Bust | Cowboys vs Giants | 2019 | 1 | 1 |
Why so high?
Eagles @ MIN
Similar historical matchups
| Matchup | Year | Wk | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Similar | Titans @ Colts | 2023 | 5 | -2 |
| Similar | Jaguars @ Bengals | 2019 | 7 | 19 |
| Boom | Jaguars @ Bengals | 2019 | 7 | 19 |
| Bust | Titans @ Colts | 2023 | 5 | -2 |
Why so high?
Why so low?
Refreshed 1 week ago
Week 7
Chris Oladokun | KC
Why so high?
Why so low?
Josh Johnson | WAS
Why so high?
Why so low?
Dak Prescott | DAL
Why so high?
Why so low?
Jalen Hurts | PHI
Why so high?
Jared Goff | DET
Why so high?
Why so low?
Malik Willis | GB
Why so high?
Why so low?
Refreshed 1 week ago
Patriots Similar historical matchups
| Matchup | Year | Wk | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Similar | Vikings @ Jaguars | 2024 | 10 | 15 |
| Similar | Bears vs Giants | 2019 | 12 | 6 |
| Boom | Vikings @ Jaguars | 2024 | 10 | 15 |
| Bust | Patriots vs Saints | 2023 | 5 | 1 |
| Week | Team |
|---|---|
| 1 | PHI |
| 2 | SF |
| 3 | SEA |
| 4 | HOU |
| 5 | DET |
| 6 | IND |
| 7 | GB |
| 8 | KC |
| 9 | LAC |
| 10 | DEN |
| 11 | NE |
| 12 | BAL |
| 13 | MIA |
| 14 | LAR |
| 15 | JAC |
| 16 | BUF |
| 17 | CIN |
| Longevity Expectancy value of number of weeks survival, i.e. before a loss. | 0.6 |
| Week | Team |
|---|---|
| 1 | PHI |
| 2 | SF |
| 3 | SEA |
| 4 | HOU |
| 5 | DET |
| 6 | IND |
| 7 | GB |
| 8 | KC |
| 9 | LAC |
| 10 | DEN |
| 11 | NE |
| 12 | BAL |
| 13 | MIA |
| 14 | LAR |
| 15 | JAC |
| 16 | BUF |
| 17 | DAL |
| Longevity Expectancy value of number of weeks survival, i.e. before a loss. | 0.8 |
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