My fantasy rankings and accuracy reports get too much of the attention.
What people really stay for is a shared love of extracting predictive insights. We don’t just want rankings. We want to understand the real drivers. We want confidence in the reasoning behind our fantasy decisions.
At Subvertadown, my hand-tailored AI reveals what data's most meaningful. And it's broken down so you can easily understand and choose the best odds.
Freely browse the live examples on this page: guidance for multi-week planning, visuals that explain what causes a high or low ranking, advice on betting lines and timing, and lots of nuggets for your strategy.
| Player/Team |
16
|
17
|
AVG
|
Playoffs
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texans | Raiders 11.4 | Chargers 7.8 | 9.6 | 9.4 |
| Bills | Browns 10.8 | Eagles 6.4 | 8.6 | 7.4 |
Refreshed 13 minutes ago
| Player/Team Projections represent team QB, so future weeks sometimes refer to a different starting QB. |
16
|
17
|
AVG
|
Playoffs
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | PHI | Commanders 21.7 | Bills 17.7 | 19.7 | 19.2 |
| Josh Allen | BUF | Browns 20.9 | Eagles 21.8 | 21.3 | 21.6 |
Refreshed 13 minutes ago
| Wk 16 Proj. Stats | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player Projections represent team QB, so future weeks sometimes refer to a different starting QB. | Matchup |
Wk 16
|
Wk 17
|
Wk 18
|
Err.
This is an estimate of confidence in the projection. A lower error means less deviation is expected — this should mean a higher floor but also a lower ceiling.
|
PaY
|
RuY
|
PTD
|
Int.
|
|
| Jalen Hurts |
Why so high?
Why so low?
|
PHI @ WAS | WAS 21.7 | Bills 17.7 | - | 5.9 | 217 | 45 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| Josh Allen |
Why so high?
Why so low?
|
BUF @ CLE | CLE 20.9 | Eagles 21.8 | - | 5.4 | 202 | 41 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
Refreshed 13 minutes ago
| Wk 16 Proj. Stats | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team |
Wk 16
|
Wk 16 Trend |
Wk 17
|
Wk 18
|
Hold? Is this player/team a likely top-8 hold rest of season? |
Err.
This is an estimate of confidence in the projection. A lower error means less deviation is expected — this should mean a higher floor but also a lower ceiling.
|
PA
|
YA
|
Int.
|
Sacks
|
FR
|
TD
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Texans vs. Raiders |
Texans Week 16Similar historical matchups
Why so high?
Why so low?
|
LV 11.4 |
|
5.3 | 11.6 | 253 | 0.9 | 3.8 | 0.7 | 0.14 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Bills @ Browns |
Bills Week 16Similar historical matchups
Why so high?
Why so low?
|
CLE 10.8 |
|
- | 4.7 | 15.1 | 266 | 1.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.18 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Refreshed 13 minutes ago
|
Wk 16 Proj. Risk
The headings in the Risk section are useful for explaining the range of outcomes that is likely for each kicker.
Err: The likelihood of results being far from the projected number. 4thD: A modeled estimate of the # of 4th downs that the team will attempt. Missed: A modeled estimate of the # kicks likely to be missed, based on many game factors including weather. Ceil: The likeliest outcome above the main projection. Fl: The likeliest outcome below the main projection. DD%: The modeled probability of the kicker scoring Double Digits (10+). LD%: The modeled probability of the kicker scoring Low Digits (0-5). |
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Matchup |
Wk 16
|
Wk 17
|
Wk 18
|
Is this player/team a likely top-8 hold rest of season?
Hold? |
Err. This is an estimate of confidence in the projection. A lower error means less deviation is expected — this should mean a higher floor but also a lower ceiling. |
4thD
|
Missed
|
Ceil
|
Fl
|
DD%
|
LD%
|
FG
|
XP
|
Implied score of the offense, according to betting lines.
Impl. score |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Ka'imi Fairbairn | HOU vs. LV |
Ka'imi Fairbairn
Similar historical matchups
Why so high?
Why so low?
|
LV 11.2 | Chargers 9.5 | - | Y | 4.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 15.5 | 8.1 | 45% | 5% | 2.4 | 2.6 | 26.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Jake Bates | DET vs. PIT |
Jake Bates
Similar historical matchups
Why so high?
Why so low?
|
PIT 10.4 | Vikings - | - | Y | 3.6 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 13.5 | 7.2 | 42% | 12% | 2.1 | 3.4 | 29.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
Refreshed 13 minutes ago
Matchup Bonuses can help you predict if a fantasy player will score more or less than usual. We first model the team "Baseline", which represents the fantasy points expected from all team players at the given position. The rest of the table indicates the weekly deviations from this baseline-- i.e. the "matchup bonus". The AVG column therefore represents the rest-of-season strength of schedule.
| Player/Team |
Baseline
|
Next 4
|
16
|
17
|
AVG
|
Playoffs
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saints | 16.4 | 2.7 | Jets 4.2 | Titans 1.2 | 2.7 | 1.9 |
| Panthers | 19.9 | 0.0 | Buccaneers 1.1 | Seahawks -1.1 | 0.0 | -0.1 |
Refreshed 53 minutes ago
| Player/Team |
Baseline
|
Next 4
|
16
|
17
|
AVG
|
Playoffs
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Panthers | 26.6 | 3.1 | Buccaneers 3.0 | Seahawks 3.2 | 3.1 | 1.9 |
| Raiders | 17.4 | -0.4 | Texans -3.0 | Giants 2.2 | -0.4 | -1.7 |
Refreshed 53 minutes ago
| Original Spreads (Tuesday) and Updates | Current Spreads (if placed after Tuesday) | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orig. Pick | Orig. Line | Opponent | Orig. Bet | Update | Revised Pick? | Curr. Line | Bet Until | Current | |
| SeahawksTNF | 1.1 | Rams | $4 | - | - | -1.5 | 0.7 | $0 | |
Refreshed 28 minutes ago
| Original O/U (Tuesday) and Updates | Current O/U (if placed after Tuesday) | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | Away | Orig. Pick | Orig. Line | Orig. Bet | Update | Revised Pick? | Curr. Line | Bet Until | Current | |
| SeahawksTNF | Rams | O | 44.3 | $5 | $0 | U | 42.7 | 43.4 | $0 | |
Refreshed 28 minutes ago
Even if you're not subscribed for our full ordered rankings, we provide the following pros-and-cons list for all kickers. The reasonings are based on statistical drivers extracted from key data, so the explanations can give you insight into why a kicker is ranked where it is. Regardless of whose kicker rankings you use each week, this should help you make a better informed decision.
| Pros | Cons | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Bates | DET vs. PIT |
|
|
| Ka'imi Fairbairn | HOU vs. LV |
|
|
Refreshed 13 minutes ago
Week 16
Texans * vs. LV
Similar historical matchups
| Matchup | Year | Wk | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Similar | Cowboys vs Giants | 2023 | 10 | 11 |
| Similar | Steelers @ Bengals | 2020 | 15 | 4 |
| Boom | Vikings vs Commanders | 2019 | 8 | 13 |
| Bust | Steelers @ Bengals | 2020 | 15 | 4 |
Crowd-sourced average from 29 votes
Why so high?
Why so low?
Bills * @ CLE
Similar historical matchups
| Matchup | Year | Wk | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Similar | Packers vs Bears | 2021 | 14 | 13 |
| Similar | Bills vs Jets | 2023 | 11 | 21 |
| Boom | Dolphins @ Jets | 2023 | 12 | 23 |
| Bust | Chiefs vs Browns | 2015 | 16 | 4 |
Crowd-sourced average from 29 votes
Why so high?
Why so low?
Saints * @ TEN
Similar historical matchups
| Matchup | Year | Wk | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Similar | Bengals @ Steelers | 2023 | 16 | 3 |
| Similar | Vikings @ Lions | 2019 | 7 | 5 |
| Boom | Buccaneers @ Chargers | 2024 | 8 | 18 |
| Bust | Bengals @ Steelers | 2023 | 8 | 3 |
Crowd-sourced average from 29 votes
Why so high?
Why so low?
Chiefs * vs. NYJ
Similar historical matchups
| Matchup | Year | Wk | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Similar | Steelers @ Jets | 2019 | 16 | 5 |
| Similar | Titans vs Texans | 2023 | 15 | 5 |
| Boom | Jaguars @ Jets | 2021 | 10 | 11 |
| Bust | Bengals @ Steelers | 2023 | 8 | 3 |
Crowd-sourced average from 29 votes
Why so high?
Why so low?
Vikings * vs. KC
Similar historical matchups
| Matchup | Year | Wk | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Similar | Jets @ Jaguars | 2024 | 15 | 6 |
| Similar | Bengals vs Steelers | 2021 | 12 | 12 |
| Boom | Titans vs Colts | 2022 | 11 | 14 |
| Bust | Bengals @ Patriots | 2022 | 13 | 3 |
Crowd-sourced average from 29 votes
Why so high?
Why so low?
Broncos * vs. LAR
Similar historical matchups
| Matchup | Year | Wk | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Similar | Bengals vs Seahawks | 2023 | 6 | 7 |
| Similar | Ravens @ Chargers | 2023 | 12 | 9 |
| Boom | Ravens vs Seahawks | 2023 | 7 | 14 |
| Bust | Bengals vs Eagles | 2024 | 5 | 4 |
Crowd-sourced average from 29 votes
Why so high?
Refreshed 12 minutes ago
Week 16
Jalen Hurts | PHI
Why so high?
Why so low?
Josh Allen | BUF
Why so high?
Why so low?
Jared Goff | DET
Why so high?
Why so low?
Bo Nix | DEN
Why so high?
Why so low?
Justin Herbert | LAC
Why so high?
Why so low?
Joe Burrow | CIN
Why so high?
Why so low?
Refreshed 13 minutes ago
Texans Similar historical matchups
| Matchup | Year | Wk | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Similar | Cowboys vs Giants | 2023 | 10 | 11 |
| Similar | Steelers @ Bengals | 2020 | 15 | 4 |
| Boom | Vikings vs Commanders | 2019 | 8 | 13 |
| Bust | Steelers @ Bengals | 2020 | 15 | 4 |
| Week | Team |
|---|---|
| 1 | PHI |
| 2 | SF |
| 3 | SEA |
| 4 | HOU |
| 5 | DET |
| 6 | IND |
| 7 | GB |
| 8 | KC |
| 9 | LAC |
| 10 | DEN |
| 11 | NE |
| 12 | BAL |
| 13 | MIA |
| 14 | LAR |
| 15 | JAC |
| 16 | BUF |
| 17 | NO |
| Longevity Expectancy value of number of weeks survival, i.e. before a loss. | 1.3 |
| Week | Team |
|---|---|
| 1 | PHI |
| 2 | SF |
| 3 | SEA |
| 4 | HOU |
| 5 | DET |
| 6 | IND |
| 7 | GB |
| 8 | KC |
| 9 | LAC |
| 10 | DEN |
| 11 | NE |
| 12 | BAL |
| 13 | MIA |
| 14 | LAR |
| 15 | JAC |
| 16 | NO |
| 17 | TB |
| Longevity Expectancy value of number of weeks survival, i.e. before a loss. | 1.3 |
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