Predictive insights with statistical integrity

My fantasy rankings and accuracy reports get too much of the attention.

What people really stay for is a shared love of extracting predictive insights. We don’t just want rankings. We want to understand the real drivers. We want confidence in the reasoning behind our fantasy decisions.

At Subvertadown, my hand-tailored AI reveals what data's most meaningful. And it's broken down so you can easily understand and choose the best odds.

Freely browse the live examples on this page: guidance for multi-week planning, visuals that explain what causes a high or low ranking, advice on betting lines and timing, and lots of nuggets for your strategy.

17-week charts showing the future projections for each team. Here is how the top 2 D/STs from this week look over the course of the season.

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AVG
Playoffs
Commanders 9.0 4.1 7.4 5.9 6.7 7.3 5.8 4.6 7.6 5.1 6.0 - 6.5 3.8 8.4 5.7 6.8 6.3 7.0
Broncos 8.5 7.5 7.6 6.6 4.9 7.8 9.6 7.4 6.0 7.3 7.1 - 5.3 6.9 5.5 6.8 5.5 6.9 6.0

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Details charts, showing extra variables that are also projected from predictive models. The special tooltip features show extra valuable information: Closest historical matchups, explanations for "why so high / why so low", and user-create comments.

Quarterbacks

Wk 1 Proj. Stats
Player Matchup
Wk 1
Wk 2
Wk 3
Err.
PaY
RuY
PTD
Int.
Josh Allen BUF vs. BAL 22.8 20.3 20.0 6.9 259 36 2.0 0.7
Jalen Hurts PHI vs. DAL 22.0 16.8 21.9 6.9 225 46 1.8 0.6

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D/STs

Wk 1 Proj. Stats
Team
Wk 1
Wk 2
Wk 3
Hold?
Err.
PA
YA
Int.
Sacks
FR
TD
Commanders vs. Giants 9.0 - - 4.5 17.8 285 0.8 3.1 0.6 0.22
Broncos vs. Titans 8.5 5.0 17.9 295 0.8 3.0 0.6 0.24

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Kickers

Wk 1 Proj. Stats
Player Matchup
Wk 1
Wk 2
Wk 3
Hold?
Err.
FG
0-29
30-39
40-49
50+
XP
Impl. score
Chad Ryland ARI @ NO 8.8 8.8 8.0 Y 3.9 1.8 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.4 2.2 22.9
Cam Little JAC vs. CAR 8.6 - - - 3.7 1.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.2 2.5 25.0

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Even if you're not subscribed for our full ordered rankings, we provide the following pros-and-cons list for all kickers. The reasonings are based on statistical drivers extracted from key data, so the explanations can give you insight into why a kicker is ranked where it is. Regardless of whose kicker rankings you use each week, this should help you make a better informed decision.

Pros Cons
Chad Ryland ARI @ NO
  • dome or low wind speed
  • sweet spot team scoring
  • no standout reason; multiple smaller reasons
Cam Little JAC vs. CAR
  • no standout reason; multiple smaller reasons
  • no standout reason; multiple smaller reasons

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Modified D/ST rankings, adjusted by crowd-sourced votes, from our D/ST Pick6x6 contest

D/ST |
|

Week 1

Commanders

9.0

Broncos

8.5

49ers

7.7

Jaguars

7.7

Chiefs

7.5

Jets

7.2
* Indicates Pick 6x6 crowd-sourced projection.
View Full Projections

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Unique insight to field positions where each kicker is likely to get scoring opportunities

Cam Little

  • Less likely to stall upfield. and more likely to kick near the endzone
  • Fewer drives stalling before reaching kicking range
  • Bolstered by a floor of RZ opportunities.

How to read this chart

View the distribution of outcomes of historical matches that had very similar characteristics

Similar historical matchups

Matchup Year Wk Result
Similar Packers vs Bears 2018 1 9
Similar Chargers @ Texans 2022 4 8
Boom Packers vs Bears 2018 1 9
Bust Browns vs Titans 2019 1 1

Survivor advice, optimized and showing 3 pathways all season — with a backup option each week

Path 3A

Week Team
1 DEN
2 DET
3 TB
4 ARI
5 BAL
6 GB
7 NYJ
8 NE
9 LAR
10 SF
11 ATL
12 LV
13 MIA
14 MIN
15 PHI
16 BUF
17 WAS
Longevity 3.5

Path 3B

Week Team
1 NE
2 DET
3 GB
4 ARI
5 MIN
6 PHI
7 DEN
8 BAL
9 LAR
10 TB
11 ATL
12 LV
13 SF
14 TEN
15 MIA
16 KC
17 HOU
Longevity 3.2