D/ST |
Week 12
Steelers
Similar historical matchups
| Matchup | Year | Wk | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Similar | Giants vs Raiders | 2013 | 10 | 17 |
| Similar | Browns vs Dolphins | 2019 | 12 | 10 |
| Boom | Seahawks @ Giants | 2013 | 15 | 22 |
| Bust | 49ers @ Bears | 2022 | 1 | 6 |
Why so high?
- 2nd least points allowed acc. betting lines
- most sacks expected from both teams´ histories
Texans
Similar historical matchups
| Matchup | Year | Wk | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Similar | Rams vs Cardinals | 2018 | 2 | 11 |
| Similar | Ravens vs Browns | 2017 | 2 | 15 |
| Boom | Ravens vs Browns | 2017 | 2 | 15 |
| Bust | Steelers vs Bears | 2021 | 9 | 4 |
Why so high?
- 2nd least points allowed acc. betting lines
- 3rd most sacks expected from both teams´ histories
Why so low?
- 5th largest upgrade to opposing QB
Chiefs
Similar historical matchups
| Matchup | Year | Wk | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Similar | Broncos vs Browns | 2012 | 16 | 13 |
| Similar | Bears vs Colts | 2012 | 1 | 13 |
| Boom | Eagles vs Giants | 2021 | 16 | 18 |
| Bust | Ravens vs Bengals | 2011 | 11 | 3 |
Why so high?
- least points allowed acc. betting lines
- 3rd lowest yards allowed rating
Broncos *
Similar historical matchups
| Matchup | Year | Wk | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Similar | Colts vs Bills | 2018 | 7 | 16 |
| Similar | Seahawks vs 49ers | 2018 | 13 | 11 |
| Boom | Chiefs vs Broncos | 2017 | 8 | 18 |
| Bust | 49ers vs Colts | 2013 | 3 | 1 |
Crowd-sourced average from 30 votes
Why so high?
- 5th least points allowed acc. betting lines
- most interceptions thrown by opponent
Commanders *
Similar historical matchups
| Matchup | Year | Wk | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Similar | Packers @ Commanders | 2022 | 7 | 8 |
| Similar | Packers vs Bills | 2018 | 4 | 21 |
| Boom | Packers vs Bills | 2018 | 4 | 21 |
| Bust | Dolphins vs Vikings | 2014 | 16 | 2 |
Crowd-sourced average from 30 votes
Why so high?
- 4th least points allowed acc. betting lines
- largest downgrade to opposing QB
Why so low?
- 3rd lowest interceptions rating
- 6th highest yards allowed rating
Lions *
Similar historical matchups
| Matchup | Year | Wk | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Similar | Panthers @ Saints | 2015 | 13 | 3 |
| Similar | Lions @ Falcons | 2014 | 8 | 6 |
| Boom | Cardinals vs Buccaneers | 2016 | 2 | 22 |
| Bust | Eagles @ Seahawks | 2017 | 13 | 2 |
Crowd-sourced average from 30 votes
Why so high?
- 5th most interceptions thrown by opponent
- 8th lowest yards allowed rating
Why so low?
- 2nd largest downgrade to own QB
Vikings *
Similar historical matchups
| Matchup | Year | Wk | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Similar | Dolphins @ Jets | 2014 | 13 | 7 |
| Similar | Seahawks @ Rams | 2012 | 4 | 6 |
| Boom | Cardinals vs Rams | 2014 | 10 | 27 |
| Bust | Jets @ Bengals | 2019 | 13 | 3 |
Crowd-sourced average from 30 votes
Why so high?
- 7th least points allowed acc. betting lines
- 2nd most sacks expected from both teams´ histories
Buccaneers *
Similar historical matchups
| Matchup | Year | Wk | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Similar | Texans vs Titans | 2018 | 12 | 8 |
| Similar | Lions vs 49ers | 2015 | 16 | 6 |
| Boom | Bengals vs Browns | 2013 | 11 | 25 |
| Bust | Colts vs Rams | 2013 | 10 | 2 |
Crowd-sourced average from 30 votes
Why so high?
- 5th least points allowed acc. betting lines
- 3rd largest downgrade to opposing QB
Why so low?
- largest upgrade to opposing offense
- 5th least interceptions thrown by opponent
Dolphins *
Similar historical matchups
| Matchup | Year | Wk | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Similar | Packers @ 49ers | 2015 | 4 | 15 |
| Similar | 49ers vs Cardinals | 2020 | 1 | 1 |
| Boom | Colts @ Jaguars | 2014 | 3 | 17 |
| Bust | 49ers vs Cardinals | 2020 | 1 | 1 |
Crowd-sourced average from 30 votes
Why so high?
- 8th least points allowed acc. betting lines
Why so low?
- 3rd largest upgrade to opposing QB
Refreshed 6 minutes ago
Quarterback
Week 12
Lamar Jackson | BAL
Why so high?
- highest QB rushing stats
- 5th most points expected acc. betting lines
Why so low?
- 3rd highest chance of RBs taking points
- weather
Jayden Daniels | WAS
Why so high?
- 2nd most points expected acc. betting lines
- 2nd highest QB rushing stats
Why so low?
- 4th highest chance of RBs taking points
Jalen Hurts | PHI
Why so high?
- 3rd highest QB rushing stats
- 6th most points expected acc. betting lines
Why so low?
- weather
- 6th highest chance of RBs taking points
Patrick Mahomes | KC
Why so high?
- 3rd most points expected acc. betting lines
Why so low?
- best opponent pass defense
Jared Goff | DET
Why so high?
- most points expected acc. betting lines
- 2nd highest pass efficiency
Why so low?
- highest chance of RBs taking points
Bo Nix | DEN
Why so high?
- 7th lowest chance of RBs taking points
- 9th highest QB rushing stats
Why so low?
- divisional game
C.J. Stroud | HOU
Why so high?
- 7th most points expected acc. betting lines
- 4th most QB rushing allowed by opponent
Why so low?
- 3rd lowest pass efficiency
Kyler Murray | ARI
Why so high?
- 4th highest QB rushing stats
- 12th lowest chance of RBs taking points
Why so low?
- weather
- 4th lowest passing volume
Refreshed 6 minutes ago
Kicker Top 3
Week 12 Tier
Jake Bates | DET
Jake Bates
- More likely to stall upfield, and less likely to kick near the endzone.
- Likely to go for it on the 4th, despite having mid-field opportunities.
- Fewer drives stalling before reaching kicking range
- Bolstered by a floor of RZ opportunities.
Why so high?
- most points expected acc. betting lines
- dome or low wind speed
Why so low?
- risk of high PAT/FG ratio
- 4th highest chance for big plays
Ka'imi Fairbairn | HOU
Ka'imi Fairbairn
- More kicking opportunities overall, at all distances.
- Likely to take advantage of the opportunity for long kicks.
- Fewer drives stalling before reaching kicking range
- Bolstered by a floor of RZ opportunities.
Why so high?
- 2nd most possessions allowed by opponent
- 7th most points expected acc. betting lines
Why so low?
- 4th most turnovers
- 8th lowest accuracy
Zane Gonzalez | WAS
Zane Gonzalez
- Less likely to stall upfield. and more likely to kick near the endzone
- Bolstered by a floor of RZ opportunities.
Why so high?
- 2nd most points expected acc. betting lines
- 4th highest accuracy
Why so low?
- risk of high PAT/FG ratio
- 7th least possessions allowed by opponent
Week 12 - 2024
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Current Season
DETROIT, MI - NOVEMBER 17: Detroit Lions cornerback Amik Robertson (21) upends Jacksonville Jaguars running back Travis Etienne Jr. (1) during the Detroit Lions versus the Jacksonville Jaguars game on Sunday November 17, 2024 at Ford Field in Detroit, MI. (Photo by Steven King/Icon Sportswire)
Week 12 - 2024
By Subvertadown
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Current SeasonEarly D/ST Reddit post is here
November 18, 2024
There’s increasing talk about which D/STs to grab for playoffs.
A few reminders:
Long-range subscribers already have the view of all forecasts, in the 17-week charts, including a sortable “Playoffs” column.
It’s still a bit early to use up your bench space with D/ST stashes. You’ll probably find a streamable D/ST when you need it.
We will again run a “Charity Drive for Playoffs View”, around Thanksgiving week. More deets to come.
/Subvertadown