Predictive insights with statistical integrity

My fantasy rankings and accuracy reports get too much of the attention.

What people really stay for is a shared love of extracting predictive insights. We don’t just want rankings. We want to understand the real drivers. We want confidence in the reasoning behind our fantasy decisions.

At Subvertadown, my hand-tailored AI reveals what data's most meaningful. And it's broken down so you can easily understand and choose the best odds.

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Freely browse the live examples on this page: guidance for multi-week planning, visuals that explain what causes a high or low ranking, advice on betting lines and timing, and lots of nuggets for your strategy.

Strategize who you stream—and plan your “holds” by using 17-week forecasting charts.

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AVG
Playoffs
Commanders 8.4 4.7 7.0 6.4 6.7 7.2 5.6 4.9 7.6 5.7 6.2 - 6.6 3.9 7.8 5.9 6.5 6.3 6.7
Broncos 7.8 7.1 7.3 6.3 4.7 7.8 8.7 6.8 6.6 6.6 6.9 - 5.2 5.0 5.7 6.4 5.4 6.5 5.8

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Members here mostly care what’s behind the numbers: rigorous models. But the website goes further by also interpreting the reasons behind each recommendation. So try hovering over the tool-tips for deeper explanations, to help you reason your weekly pick.

Quarterbacks

Wk 1 Proj. Stats
Player Matchup
Wk 1
Wk 2
Wk 3
Err.
PaY
RuY
PTD
Int.
Jalen Hurts PHI vs. DAL 22.1 19.4 21.7 6.8 230 46 1.8 0.7
Josh Allen BUF vs. BAL 22.0 20.5 19.9 6.8 241 39 1.9 0.7
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D/STs

Wk 1 Proj. Stats
Team
Wk 1
Wk 2
Wk 3
Hold?
Err.
PA
YA
Int.
Sacks
FR
TD
Commanders vs. Giants 8.4 - 4.7 18.0 293 0.8 2.8 0.6 0.17
Broncos vs. Titans 7.8 - 5.0 18.6 305 0.7 2.7 0.6 0.20
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Kickers

Wk 1 Proj. Stats
Player Matchup
Wk 1
Wk 2
Wk 3
Hold?
Err.
FG
0-29
30-39
40-49
50+
XP
Impl. score
Tyler Bass BUF vs. BAL 8.7 8.4 8.5 Y 3.2 1.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.2 2.6 26.9
Chad Ryland ARI @ NO 8.6 - - Y 3.9 1.8 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.3 2.2 23.5
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Betting lines: A portfolio of suggested likely betting options, among spreads and O/Us. In addition to scaling the level of each wager, it also suggests whether to bet near opening or closing.

Spreads

Bet on
Curr. line
Opp.
Bet
Bet timing
Titans 7.5 Broncos $800 Open

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Over / Under

Home Away
Curr. line
Bet on
Bet
Bet timing
Bills Ravens 52.0 O $600 Open

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Preview how I turn stats into useful reasoning! The pros-and-cons lists have extracted statistical drivers from key data. This can supplement your kicker choices, no matter what rankings you use!

Even if you're not subscribed for our full ordered rankings, we provide the following pros-and-cons list for all kickers. The reasonings are based on statistical drivers extracted from key data, so the explanations can give you insight into why a kicker is ranked where it is. Regardless of whose kicker rankings you use each week, this should help you make a better informed decision.

Pros Cons
Tyler Bass BUF vs. BAL
  • most points expected acc. betting lines
  • 9th least turnovers
  • risk of high PAT/FG ratio
  • 2nd highest chance for big plays
Chad Ryland ARI @ NO
  • dome or low wind speed
  • 3rd least possessions allowed by opponent

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Modified D/ST rankings, adjusted by crowd-sourced votes, from our D/ST Pick6x6 contest.

D/ST |
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Week 1

Commanders

9.0

Broncos

8.5

49ers

7.7

Jaguars

7.7

Chiefs

7.5

Jets

7.2
* Indicates Pick 6x6 crowd-sourced projection.
View Full Projections

Refreshed 3 days ago

This is the most useful way to think about your kicker’s opportunities! Get unique insight to each kicker’s volumes and likely field positions.

Harrison Butker

  • Less likely to stall upfield. and more likely to kick near the endzone
  • Bolstered by a floor of RZ opportunities.

How to read this chart

It’s not only the projection that matters! It’s key to consider the range of possible outcomes. My algorithms search for the most similar historical matches and show you what actually happened.

Similar historical matchups

Matchup Year Wk Result
Similar Packers vs Bears 2018 1 9
Similar Cowboys vs Bears 2016 3 4
Boom Packers vs Bears 2018 1 9
Bust Bengals @ Saints 2022 6 0

Specialized advice for Survivor, based on my own game score models—and my own optimization algorithm. Covers 3 surviving pathways all season!

Path 3A

Week Team
1 DEN
2 DET
3 TB
4 ARI
5 BAL
6 GB
7 NYJ
8 NE
9 LAR
10 SF
11 ATL
12 LV
13 MIA
14 MIN
15 PHI
16 BUF
17 WAS
Longevity 3.5

Path 3B

Week Team
1 NE
2 DET
3 GB
4 ARI
5 MIN
6 PHI
7 DEN
8 BAL
9 LAR
10 TB
11 ATL
12 LV
13 SF
14 TEN
15 MIA
16 KC
17 HOU
Longevity 3.2