D/ST |
Week 12
Dolphins
Similar historical matchups
| Matchup | Year | Wk | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Similar | Packers vs Bears | 2021 | 14 | 13 |
| Similar | Ravens vs Jaguars | 2014 | 15 | 21 |
| Boom | Ravens vs Jaguars | 2014 | 15 | 21 |
| Bust | Browns vs Bengals | 2019 | 14 | 5 |
Why so high?
- least points allowed acc. betting lines
- most sacks expected from both teams´ histories
Patriots
Similar historical matchups
| Matchup | Year | Wk | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Similar | 49ers @ Cardinals | 2012 | 8 | 12 |
| Similar | 49ers vs Bears | 2012 | 11 | 16 |
| Boom | Ravens vs Jaguars | 2014 | 15 | 21 |
| Bust | Cardinals vs Browns | 2011 | 15 | 5 |
Why so high?
- 2nd least points allowed acc. betting lines
- largest downgrade to opposing QB
Why so low?
- 5th lowest interceptions rating
Titans
Similar historical matchups
| Matchup | Year | Wk | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Similar | Vikings vs Cardinals | 2012 | 7 | 17 |
| Similar | Titans vs Jaguars | 2018 | 14 | 11 |
| Boom | Vikings vs Cardinals | 2012 | 7 | 17 |
| Bust | Steelers vs Bears | 2021 | 9 | 4 |
Why so high?
- 3rd least points allowed acc. betting lines
- 4th largest upgrade to defense
Why so low?
- 3rd highest yards allowed rating
- 2nd lowest interceptions rating
Cowboys
Similar historical matchups
| Matchup | Year | Wk | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Similar | Patriots vs Jaguars | 2015 | 3 | 7 |
| Similar | Cardinals vs Panthers | 2021 | 10 | 3 |
| Boom | Rams vs Texans | 2017 | 10 | 16 |
| Bust | Cardinals vs Panthers | 2021 | 10 | 3 |
Why so high?
- 5th least points allowed acc. betting lines
- 2nd most sacks expected from both teams´ histories
Chiefs
Similar historical matchups
| Matchup | Year | Wk | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Similar | Ravens vs Titans | 2014 | 10 | 14 |
| Similar | Titans vs Texans | 2017 | 13 | 8 |
| Boom | Bengals vs Jets | 2013 | 8 | 25 |
| Bust | Cardinals vs Panthers | 2021 | 10 | 3 |
Why so high?
- 4th least points allowed acc. betting lines
- most interceptions thrown by opponent
49ers
Similar historical matchups
| Matchup | Year | Wk | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Similar | Lions vs Bears | 2016 | 14 | 6 |
| Similar | Chiefs vs Buccaneers | 2016 | 11 | 0 |
| Boom | Seahawks vs Cardinals | 2014 | 12 | 11 |
| Bust | Chiefs vs Buccaneers | 2016 | 11 | 0 |
Why so high?
- 8th least points allowed acc. betting lines
- highest interceptions rating
Why so low?
- 6th largest upgrade to opposing QB
Ravens
Similar historical matchups
| Matchup | Year | Wk | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Similar | Saints vs Vikings | 2020 | 16 | 0 |
| Similar | Panthers vs Ravens | 2018 | 8 | 8 |
| Boom | Saints vs Falcons | 2020 | 11 | 17 |
| Bust | Saints vs Vikings | 2020 | 16 | 0 |
Why so low?
- 2nd largest downgrade to own offense
Bengals
Similar historical matchups
| Matchup | Year | Wk | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Similar | Bills vs Dolphins | 2016 | 16 | -4 |
| Similar | Browns vs Bills | 2019 | 10 | 2 |
| Boom | Raiders vs Bears | 2011 | 12 | 7 |
| Bust | Bills vs Dolphins | 2016 | 16 | -4 |
Why so high?
- 9th least points allowed acc. betting lines
- 3rd largest upgrade to own offense
Why so low?
- 5th largest downgrade to defense
- 2nd largest downgrade to own QB
Refreshed 9 minutes ago
Quarterback
Week 12
Lamar Jackson | BAL
23.9Dak Prescott | DAL
23.6Jalen Hurts | PHI
22.6Patrick Mahomes | KC
21.2Josh Allen | BUF
19.0Cousins / Dobbs / Mullens / Hall | MIN
18.5Jared Goff | DET
17.7Lawrence / Beathard | JAC
17.6Richardson / Minshew | IND
17.3Fields / Bagent | CHI
17.3Stroud / Keenum / Mills | HOU
17.2Brock Purdy | SF
16.8Refreshed 9 minutes ago
Kicker Top 8
Week 12 Tier
Brandon Aubrey | DAL
Why so high?
- most points expected acc. betting lines
- least turnovers
Why so low?
- risk of high PAT/FG ratio
- 2nd most ordinary kicker usage
Brandon McManus | JAC
Why so high?
- 6th best opportunity for long kicks
- 8th most points expected acc. betting lines
Harrison Butker | KC
Why so high?
- 4th most points expected acc. betting lines
- 8th least turnovers
Why so low?
- 2nd least possessions allowed by opponent
Hopkins / Patterson | CLE
Why so high?
- a higher FG/PAT ratio is expected
- 3rd best opportunity for long kicks
Why so low?
- least possessions allowed by opponent
Justin Tucker | BAL
Why so high?
- 5th most points expected acc. betting lines
- 8th best opportunity for long kicks
Why so low?
- 7th least possessions allowed by opponent
Maher / Havrisik | LAR
Why so high?
- 4th best opportunity for long kicks
- 9th least turnovers
Why so low?
- 4th least possessions allowed by opponent
- 3rd lowest accuracy
Matt Gay | IND
Why so high?
- sweet spot team scoring
- dome or low wind speed
Younghoe Koo | ATL
Why so high?
- a higher FG/PAT ratio is expected
- 7th best opportunity for long kicks
Refreshed 9 minutes ago
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JACKSONVILLE, FL - DECEMBER 31: Jacksonville Jaguars linebacker Josh Allen (41) reacts after a recording a sack on Carolina Panthers quarterback Bryce Young (9) during the game between the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Carolina Panthers on December 31, 2023 at EverBank Stadium in Jacksonville, Fl. (Photo by David Rosenblum/Icon Sportswire
Website is entering off-season mode: Unlocked charts and free to browse!
By Subvertadown
Tagged under
Current SeasonJanuary 2nd, 2024
[Final accuracy round-up posted here]
[Season wrap-up and Week 18 suggestions posted here]
For now I wanted to note that the website is entering off-season mode, with the site unlocked and free to explore.
As I always do in the off-season, the projections in all charts now represent how the models would predict things now, “as if those games were played over again today.” This lets us judge what results were “random” when they happened, compared to what the expectations should have been.
At the season start we did not have nearly complete knowledge of each team’s strengths and weaknesses. This view lets us explore “what ifs” and “if only we had known…”
Have fun with it!
More soon, and Happy New Year,
/Subvertadown
Update Saturday January 6th
Simplified model output for D/ST and Kicker in week 18:
