D/ST |
Week 16
Packers
Similar historical matchups
| Matchup | Year | Wk | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Similar | Falcons vs Jaguars | 2011 | 15 | 22 |
| Similar | Seahawks vs 49ers | 2014 | 15 | 11 |
| Boom | Falcons vs Jaguars | 2011 | 15 | 22 |
| Bust | Ravens vs Jets | 2019 | 15 | 5 |
Why so high?
- least points allowed acc. betting lines
- largest downgrade to opposing offense
Bills
Similar historical matchups
| Matchup | Year | Wk | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Similar | Packers vs Rams | 2022 | 15 | 13 |
| Similar | Bills vs Browns | 2016 | 15 | 10 |
| Boom | Patriots vs Titans | 2015 | 15 | 20 |
| Bust | Eagles vs Commanders | 2022 | 10 | 7 |
Why so high?
- 2nd least points allowed acc. betting lines
Why so low?
- largest downgrade to defense
- highest yards allowed rating
Falcons *
Similar historical matchups
| Matchup | Year | Wk | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Similar | Seahawks vs Cardinals | 2013 | 16 | 11 |
| Similar | Bengals vs Colts | 2017 | 8 | 12 |
| Boom | Packers vs Bills | 2018 | 4 | 21 |
| Bust | Browns @ Jets | 2020 | 16 | 2 |
Crowd-sourced average from 32 votes
Why so high?
- 3rd least points allowed acc. betting lines
Why so low?
- 4th largest downgrade to own offense
- 3rd largest downgrade to own QB
Bengals *
Similar historical matchups
| Matchup | Year | Wk | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Similar | Packers vs Eagles | 2020 | 13 | 12 |
| Similar | Seahawks @ 49ers | 2018 | 15 | 4 |
| Boom | Chiefs @ Raiders | 2013 | 15 | 14 |
| Bust | Commanders vs Vikings | 2011 | 16 | 0 |
Crowd-sourced average from 32 votes
Why so high?
- 4th least points allowed acc. betting lines
- 2nd most interceptions thrown by opponent
Why so low?
- 3rd highest yards allowed rating
Colts *
Similar historical matchups
| Matchup | Year | Wk | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Similar | Cowboys vs Raiders | 2013 | 13 | 4 |
| Similar | Commanders vs Cardinals | 2017 | 15 | 12 |
| Boom | Commanders vs Cardinals | 2017 | 15 | 12 |
| Bust | Commanders vs Giants | 2019 | 16 | -9 |
Crowd-sourced average from 32 votes
Why so high?
- 9th least points allowed acc. betting lines
- 4th most interceptions thrown by opponent
Why so low?
- 3rd largest upgrade to opposing offense
- 9th highest yards allowed rating
Lions *
Similar historical matchups
| Matchup | Year | Wk | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Similar | Eagles @ Bears | 2022 | 15 | 10 |
| Similar | Lions vs Dolphins | 2014 | 10 | 10 |
| Boom | Steelers @ Browns | 2016 | 11 | 23 |
| Bust | Seahawks vs Cardinals | 2019 | 16 | -1 |
Crowd-sourced average from 32 votes
Why so high?
- 2nd most sacks expected from both teams´ histories
Why so low?
- 11th least interceptions thrown by opponent
Cardinals *
Similar historical matchups
| Matchup | Year | Wk | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Similar | Cowboys vs Seahawks | 2017 | 16 | 7 |
| Similar | Eagles @ Giants | 2021 | 12 | 6 |
| Boom | Seahawks vs Vikings | 2018 | 14 | 15 |
| Bust | Packers @ Jets | 2018 | 16 | -2 |
Crowd-sourced average from 32 votes
Why so high?
- 6th most interceptions thrown by opponent
Why so low?
- 9th lowest interceptions rating
Ravens
Similar historical matchups
| Matchup | Year | Wk | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Similar | Ravens @ Bills | 2019 | 14 | 11 |
| Similar | Bengals @ Steelers | 2013 | 15 | 4 |
| Boom | Giants @ Browns | 2016 | 12 | 22 |
| Bust | Vikings vs Rams | 2015 | 9 | 1 |
Why so high?
- 5th least points allowed acc. betting lines
- high wind speed
Why so low?
- 3rd least interceptions thrown by opponent
- 8th highest yards allowed rating
Vikings *
Similar historical matchups
| Matchup | Year | Wk | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Similar | Dolphins @ Bills | 2013 | 16 | 2 |
| Similar | Bengals @ Browns | 2016 | 14 | 10 |
| Boom | Bengals @ Browns | 2016 | 14 | 10 |
| Bust | Dolphins @ Bills | 2013 | 16 | 2 |
Crowd-sourced average from 32 votes
Why so high?
- 8th least points allowed acc. betting lines
- rainy conditions
Why so low?
- 9th largest upgrade to opposing offense
Refreshed 5 minutes ago
Quarterback
Week 16
Josh Allen | BUF
Why so high?
- most points expected acc. betting lines
- 4th highest QB rushing stats
Why so low?
- 3rd highest chance of RBs taking points
- least QB rushing allowed by opponent
Baker Mayfield | TB
Why so high?
- 5th most points expected acc. betting lines
- 4th highest pass efficiency
Why so low?
- 4th highest chance of RBs taking points
- 4th best opponent pass defense
Lamar Jackson | BAL
Why so high?
- highest QB rushing stats
- 8th most points expected acc. betting lines
Why so low?
- 2nd highest chance of RBs taking points
- 4th least QB rushing allowed by opponent
Joe Burrow | CIN
Why so high?
- 2nd most points expected acc. betting lines
- highest passing volume
Why so low?
- divisional game
- weather
Jalen Hurts | PHI
Why so high?
- 3rd highest QB rushing stats
- 10th most points expected acc. betting lines
Why so low?
- 5th highest chance of RBs taking points
- 12th lowest passing volume
Kyler Murray | ARI
Why so high?
- 6th most points expected acc. betting lines
- 8th highest QB rushing stats
Why so low?
- 11th highest chance of RBs taking points
- best opponent pass defense
Jordan Love | GB
Why so high?
- 3rd most points expected acc. betting lines
- 6th highest passing volume
Why so low?
- 7th highest chance of RBs taking points
Anthony Richardson | IND
Why so high?
- 5th highest QB rushing stats
- 6th lowest chance of RBs taking points
Why so low?
- lowest pass efficiency
- divisional game
Refreshed 15 minutes ago
Kicker Top 3
Week 16 Tier
Chase McLaughlin | TB
Chase McLaughlin
- More likely to stall upfield, and less likely to kick near the endzone.
- Less likely to take long kicks, despite drives stopping upfield.
- Likelier to stall before reaching kicking range
- Bolstered by a floor of RZ opportunities.
Why so high?
- 5th most points expected acc. betting lines
- 9th least turnovers
Why so low?
- risk of high PAT/FG ratio
Jake Bates | DET
Jake Bates
- Less likely to stall upfield. and more likely to kick near the endzone
- Bolstered by a floor of RZ opportunities.
Why so high?
- 4th most points expected acc. betting lines
- 4th least turnovers
Why so low?
- 3rd highest chance for big plays
- risk of high PAT/FG ratio
Matt Gay | IND
Matt Gay
- More likely to stall upfield, and less likely to kick near the endzone.
- Likely to go for it on the 4th, despite having mid-field opportunities.
- Fewer drives stalling before reaching kicking range
Why so high?
- 5th most possessions allowed by opponent
- 2nd highest accuracy
Why so low?
- 3rd least team kicker usage
Week 16 - 2024
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SANTA CLARA, CA - DECEMBER 12: Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Puka Nacua (17) runs with the ball during a NFL game between the Los Angeles Rams and the San Francisco 49ers on December 12, 2024 at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, CA. (Photo by Matthew Huang/Icon Sportswire)
Week 16 - 2024
By Subvertadown
Tagged under
Current SeasonDecember 17, 2024
Week 15 was great for accuracy, all around.
In my collaboration with Keith Lott of FantasySixPack.net, his own D/ST rankings now stand at #6 for the year according to FantasyPros. You can view his full rankings list here for week 16, including the column with my own D/ST rankings (in Yahoo scoring setting).
Hopefully you all made good D/ST stashes for your playoffs, using my look-ahead projections weeks ago. Many of the streaming candidates still remain good bets. So far they have provided a decent floor— even if only half of them gave the “boom” games we all wish for.
Good luck continuing playoffs!
/Subvertadown