Subvertadown | Fantasy Football Projections

Off-season: Explore the unlocked site! Projections reflect re-calculations of 2022, based on end-of-season knowledge.

Final Accuracy Round-up of 2022

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Current Season , Accuracy , Updates / News

Off-season Updates

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Current Season , Updates / News

Championship Week

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Current Season , Updates / News

Week 16

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Current Season , Updates / News

Week 15

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Current Season , Updates / News

Subvertadown -- 2022 Accuracy Report, after Week 12

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Expectations , Current Season , Accuracy

Week 13

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Current Season , Updates / News

Week 12 -- Happy Thanksgiving

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Current Season , Updates / News

Week 11

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Current Season , Accuracy , Kicker , Updates / News , Betting Lines

Week 10

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Current Season , Updates / News

Some Perspective on Accuracy at the Season Mid-point

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Current Season , Accuracy

Week 7 Update

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Current Season , Updates / News

Week 6 is here

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2022 First Month Accuracy Roundup

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Current Season , Accuracy

Update + Analysis of Betting Lines at Subvertadown

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Expectations , Betting Lines

Subvertadown Overview

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Welcome to Week 3

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Welcome to Week 2!

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Welcome to the New Website

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Background , Updates / News

Welcome to Week 1

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Current Season , Updates / News

Streaming Awards 2021

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Tuesday Early-bird Rankings for Waivers

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Survivor Pool 2021 Example

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Current Season , Survivor Pools

Survivor Pool Strategy

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How to Use , Understanding Statistics , Betting Lines , Survivor Pools

Calculating Survivor Expected Longevity

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Understanding Statistics , Betting Lines , Survivor Pools

The Correlation Coefficient Represents the Ratio of Skill:Luck (for Each Fantasy Position)

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Expectations , Understanding Statistics , Accuracy , Kicker

Fantasy Score Distributions: Point Distributions vs. Error Distributions

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Expectations , Understanding Statistics

How the Roster Skill/Luck ratio is Affected by Removing a Fantasy Position

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Expectations , Weekly Strategy

Streaming QBs can be a Viable Strategy (if your league is not too deep)

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Understanding Statistics , Weekly Strategy , Quarterback

Analysis of Holding vs. Streaming Kickers

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Season Strategy , Understanding Statistics , Weekly Strategy , Kicker

Is QB Really More Predictable Than D/ST?

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Expectations , Understanding Statistics , D/ST , Quarterback

Best Holds in 2021 (Retrospective): D/STs, Kickers, and QBs -- Rankings vs. Expectations

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"Fantasy Points Allowed": Too Weak for Making Lineup Decisions

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Expectations , Weekly Strategy , Accuracy

Pairing/Stacking Analysis: Correlations Between the Different Fantasy Positions

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Understanding Statistics , Weekly Strategy , Exclusive

Week-to-week Predictability: "The 0.3 Target"

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Expectations , Understanding Statistics , Accuracy , Kicker

Week-to-week Predictability of Each Fantasy Position

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Expectations , Modeling , Accuracy

Predictability of Game Scores and Fantasy Positions (during five years: 2017-2021)

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Expectations , Accuracy

Accuracy of Betting Lines, by Week# (during five years 2017-2021)

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Expectations , Betting Lines

20 Fantasy Parameters, from Most to Least Predictable

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Expectations , Understanding Statistics

Components Contributing to Kicker Predictability

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Expectations , Understanding Statistics , Kicker

Should You Pair QB + Kicker?

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Expectations , Understanding Statistics , Weekly Strategy , Kicker , Quarterback , Exclusive

Pitfalls of Trying to Make Your Own Forecasting Models

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Modeling , Understanding Statistics

Attempting to Find a More Predictable D/ST Scoring Scheme

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Expectations , D/ST

How To Use Betting Line Projection Tables

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How to Use , Weekly Strategy , Betting Lines

Betting on Spreads

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Understanding Statistics , Betting Lines

Betting on Totals (O/U)

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Understanding Statistics , Betting Lines

Calculating Weekly Accuracy: Pros & Cons of Different Methods

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Understanding Statistics , Accuracy

When to Consider Stashing D/STs for the Playoffs

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Season Strategy , D/ST

3 Ways to Intuitively Understand Skill/Luck Ratios (and ranking accuracy)

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Understanding Statistics , Accuracy

Are these projections even accurate?

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Background , Accuracy

What is Overfit? (and how to deal with it)

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Understanding Statistics

The Overall Goal of Subvertadown Predictive Models (and what I don't do)

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What Was the Motivation for Starting This Work?

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Things I Had Found Missing From Fantasy Football Resources

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Who Is Behind Subvertadown?

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How is Subvertadown Work Conducted?

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Background , Modeling

Why Did Content Move from Free to Paywalled?

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Isn’t the Modeling Easy? Can’t You Sit Back Once a Model is Finished?

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Background , Modeling

A Brief History of Subvertadown Model Development

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What's In the Model?

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Modeling , Exclusive

Remembering How to Have Fun with the Game

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Expectations , Weekly Strategy

Who Follows Subvertadown?

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Correlation is Not Causation... (So how can we believe stats can make accurate forecasting?)

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Understanding Statistics

Kicker Wall of Shame 2021

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Motivation for Modeling Kickers

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Modeling , Kicker

What People Say About Kickers

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Expectations , Kicker

Weekly Strategy for Choosing a Kicker

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Weekly Strategy , Kicker

Setting Expectation Level for Kickers: How Random/Predictable are Kickers?

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Expectations , Kicker

Motivation for Modeling D/ST

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Modeling , D/ST

Weekly Strategy for D/ST: Streaming

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Weekly Strategy , D/ST

What People Say about D/ST

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Expectations , Weekly Strategy , D/ST

Setting Expectation Levels for D/ST

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Expectations , D/ST

What Goes into the D/ST Model?

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Modeling , D/ST

Motivation for Modeling QB

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Weekly Strategy for Choosing Quarterback

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Setting Expectation Levels for QB

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What People Say about QB

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Check-list -- Reminders -- Things That Always Need Repeating

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Expectations , Weekly Strategy

Charts FAQ

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FAQ-- Flex Position Charts (RB, WR, TE)

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