Updated August 31: The new models are now active! I have made a new improvement this year, which is that all 40 models have been re-calibrated to the first weeks of the season. That means that, instead of applying trends that become relevant later on, the revised models are newly optimized for early weeks. I have not heard of anyone else doing this, and I’m excited to finally get it implemented in August! You will see some changes, in comparison to August 1.
August 1, 2023
Welcome back, everyone!
I hope you’re as excited for this season as I am.
The website has been updated for the 2023 season. Last-season data and off-season roster changes have both been integrated. So you are now officially able to start using the projections, as you prepare for your drafts.
For those familiar, I want to point out a few changes from your 2022 experience:
(1) Model improvements, (2) Upcoming model improvements, (3) New site features, and (4) Upcoming site features
Hopefully you read my re-cap of the 2022 season, in the Final Accuracy Assessment. It’s a good read, for anyone interested in what I do.
In that article, I outlined improvements I wanted to make. I’m pleased to say I completed key ones during the off-season:
All input variables went through an optimization process, for faster and more accurate adjustment to the new season data.
The Betting Lines models additionally got an overhaul, based on new analysis. Aside from general accuracy update, a lot of focus went into the wager “timing” and the bet amount calculations.
The one feature not fully implemented yet is the “early season” version of all models. The priority was to re-develop all the “full season” models, because redevelopment was needed in order to incorporate new input variables.
Upshot: I mention this so you’ll expect slight changes to the rankings. Shouldn’t be dramatic, so be aware.
This heading really deserves the exclamation point.
We managed to create some new features that I think can really improve your season experience.
The “Why so high / why so low” tool. Next to each D/ST, you will find up/down arrows. Hovering over will reveal some of the main drivers behind the team ranking.
Why did the team deserve a high ranking?
What prevents the team from being ranked higher?
This is a powerful way for you to quickly understand the basic reasoning behind each ranking.
Note week 1 is special; the fields represent some off-season changes to the teams.
The tool is there for kickers, too(!).
The “Closest historical match” tool. Also next to each D/ST is the small clock icon. Hovering over it will reveal 5 NFL matches from the last 12 years. My algorithm has decided those games have similar qualities to that D/ST’s circumstance. This lets you see what fantasy outcomes were before, and if you want to dig deeper, then you can investigate those matches to spot differences.
The WR/RB/TE ROS charts now look very different: They now display the expected deviation in fantasy score, so you can much more easily assess strength of schedule.
The “Play 6×6” game. This is a fun weekly game where you can compete against other users, to see who is best at guessing top D/ST scores.
One of the more useful tools
will is be a form to ask me about NFL player absences.
I am frequently asked whether a player’s injury / departure / arrival have been included in the fantasy projection. The new interface will give you a chance to check. Stay tuned!
I hope all the above updates will simply enhance your experience, while still letting things continue as uncomplicated and easy as it was before.
Now let’s get this done. Whether we win or lose, I think this season’s gonna be a rockin’ experience.
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