Week 1

Matchup Bonuses can help you predict if a fantasy player will score more or less than usual. We first model the team "Baseline", which represents the fantasy points expected from all team players at the given position. The rest of the table indicates the weekly deviations from this baseline-- i.e. the "matchup bonus". The AVG column therefore represents the rest-of-season strength of schedule.

Player/Team
Baseline
Next 4
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AVG
Playoffs
Lions 31.7 1.0 4.1 -0.3 2.2 -2.0 0.8 - 4.2 4.1 -0.9 1.6 1.6 4.5 2.6 1.5 2.3 -1.2 0.5 1.6 0.5
Chargers 28.8 2.5 4.0 2.9 1.1 2.0 6.0 1.0 - 3.8 3.8 -3.5 3.0 6.3 -0.2 0.9 4.5 0.0 5.6 2.6 3.3
Ravens 24.5 2.1 3.4 2.2 3.6 -0.6 3.5 -1.6 0.8 0.2 2.5 -2.5 -1.0 1.7 - 0.0 -0.4 1.2 0.0 0.8 0.2
Saints 26.2 1.1 3.3 -0.4 2.0 -0.3 5.4 0.2 -0.5 - 3.1 3.7 1.1 -0.4 5.2 -1.1 -1.2 3.7 2.9 1.7 1.8
Vikings 26.2 1.3 2.3 0.9 -1.3 3.4 2.8 - 3.4 4.2 -0.5 0.6 0.3 3.4 2.7 1.4 5.7 3.3 -1.6 1.9 2.5
Bengals 30.3 2.0 2.3 3.0 -0.3 2.9 -0.2 - 0.8 -0.2 3.7 0.6 -5.2 2.1 0.0 2.0 -0.3 2.5 2.3 1.0 1.5
Raiders 22.7 1.5 2.0 1.4 0.5 2.0 0.2 1.9 2.8 -2.6 -1.7 2.5 0.2 -3.1 - 1.4 3.0 -0.1 -0.2 0.6 0.9
Buccaneers 28.3 1.9 1.9 0.9 2.5 2.5 1.9 1.4 -1.2 1.7 0.9 - 4.1 -4.4 1.9 0.0 2.0 3.1 1.4 1.3 2.2
Colts 27.9 0.7 1.5 -0.3 2.6 -0.9 -2.9 0.8 1.5 -1.3 1.7 2.7 1.2 3.2 - -1.7 -4.1 2.5 -2.5 0.3 -1.4
Eagles 27.1 -1.3 1.4 -2.8 -4.6 0.8 1.1 -1.0 -4.4 -1.6 0.4 - 0.6 1.5 1.7 -0.3 2.7 0.8 -1.1 -0.3 0.8
Panthers 26.8 0.0 1.4 1.2 -3.2 0.7 - -1.7 -1.7 -0.6 0.2 1.8 -0.5 -5.7 0.7 -0.6 0.0 -1.8 0.7 -0.6 -0.4
Packers 28.7 -1.1 1.4 -3.6 0.1 -2.4 0.8 -0.9 2.8 -1.2 -0.3 0.3 - 0.7 1.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.5 -5.7 -0.5 -2.1
Steelers 24.3 -0.3 1.1 0.4 -0.7 -2.1 -1.4 -1.5 -1.2 -1.6 - -1.6 -1.3 0.4 -0.2 -4.1 -0.2 -0.8 -3.2 -1.1 -1.4
Texans 28.2 3.4 1.0 5.5 3.1 4.1 -1.5 2.3 4.5 - 2.9 -0.6 4.1 4.9 -0.2 -1.2 5.6 0.9 -3.9 2.0 0.9
Seahawks 31.3 0.3 0.6 1.3 -1.6 1.0 0.9 1.3 2.3 -2.4 0.3 0.2 - -1.2 -4.5 1.4 0.5 2.3 -1.4 0.1 0.5
Cardinals 23.2 -0.6 0.4 1.7 -1.9 -2.4 1.8 1.3 1.6 0.2 -1.1 1.3 -0.9 -0.2 1.6 - -1.0 0.8 -1.5 0.1 -0.6
Giants 26.2 -0.1 0.4 -1.3 -0.6 1.2 -1.3 1.9 2.2 - -0.5 -0.2 2.6 2.0 0.6 1.3 0.4 -0.2 1.0 0.6 0.4
Cowboys 32.9 0.5 0.0 1.4 0.7 -0.1 1.1 -0.9 -6.7 1.3 0.3 2.0 0.5 3.1 -4.9 - 1.1 3.1 2.4 0.3 2.2
49ers 27.7 1.0 0.0 0.6 0.6 2.8 1.6 -4.1 2.7 - -0.7 1.8 3.6 2.0 -0.6 1.2 2.7 -0.2 0.7 0.9 1.1
Titans 23.8 -0.7 -0.1 -0.2 -1.0 -1.4 -0.9 0.9 -2.0 -0.7 - -0.4 1.1 -0.9 -2.0 2.7 -1.6 -0.7 -1.7 -0.6 -1.3
Bills 27.0 2.5 -0.1 3.9 2.4 3.9 -0.1 1.0 - 2.1 -0.6 -0.9 0.9 2.7 2.8 1.6 2.6 1.9 -0.3 1.5 1.4
Commanders 25.8 1.5 -0.2 1.1 2.3 2.8 0.7 -4.6 - 1.8 2.1 -0.5 -4.0 2.0 -3.3 0.0 1.6 3.3 -0.3 0.3 1.5
Bears 27.6 -0.5 -0.2 1.5 -3.1 -0.4 0.2 2.2 2.2 -4.0 -1.1 - 1.2 3.9 1.7 -1.2 -1.3 1.6 2.6 0.4 1.0
Rams 32.6 -0.2 -0.7 -1.1 1.2 -0.3 -0.3 1.9 0.0 2.9 -1.1 0.5 - 2.8 4.1 -0.5 2.1 1.7 -1.9 0.7 0.6
Browns 21.3 -1.1 -1.0 -1.5 -1.5 -0.2 -1.8 0.0 -2.4 -1.7 1.7 -0.2 - -2.2 0.8 0.4 -0.2 -0.4 -0.7 -0.7 -0.4
Jaguars 28.8 0.9 -1.1 1.3 3.6 -0.2 1.0 3.0 - 0.6 0.4 -3.1 -1.1 -1.0 0.8 -3.8 2.4 1.1 -0.1 0.2 1.1
Dolphins 24.1 -0.7 -1.5 -1.9 -0.3 1.0 -1.0 - -3.6 0.1 0.8 0.8 -1.2 -2.9 0.0 -0.4 -0.8 -1.0 0.1 -0.7 -0.5
Patriots 29.7 0.4 -1.6 1.2 1.6 0.2 -0.6 -0.1 1.6 -0.4 1.6 4.6 - 3.0 2.3 2.2 -3.5 -1.5 2.8 0.8 -0.7
Falcons 25.2 -1.2 -2.1 1.5 -0.7 -3.4 2.8 3.9 2.5 -2.0 -1.2 2.9 - 0.9 4.6 -2.4 -2.8 1.0 3.1 0.5 0.4
Chiefs 28.9 -0.1 -2.2 1.5 -0.3 0.7 - 1.3 1.5 0.9 -0.1 2.7 0.7 0.6 2.8 -1.0 -1.9 0.6 3.1 0.7 0.6
Jets 23.2 0.0 -2.5 -0.4 3.1 -0.3 -1.5 0.8 -1.5 -1.5 0.4 0.3 2.1 -2.5 - 0.6 0.5 0.9 0.3 -0.1 0.6
Broncos 30.8 0.3 -4.5 3.0 2.9 -0.1 2.9 3.3 1.5 2.3 -1.4 - 0.0 -0.3 1.2 -1.8 0.4 2.1 1.7 0.8 1.4

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