Matchup Bonuses can help you predict if a fantasy player will score more or less than usual. We first model the team "Baseline", which represents the fantasy points expected from all team players at the given position. The rest of the table indicates the weekly deviations from this baseline-- i.e. the "matchup bonus". The AVG column therefore represents the rest-of-season strength of schedule.
Baseline
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AVG
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Panthers | 25.4 | 1.3 | Cowboys 4.5 | Jets 0.4 | Bills 0.9 | Packers -0.4 | Saints 2.5 | Falcons 1.0 | 49ers -2.6 | Rams 0.1 | BYE - | Saints 3.3 | Buccaneers -0.3 | Seahawks -2.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
Chiefs | 27.6 | 1.7 | Lions 4.4 | Raiders 3.5 | Commanders -0.9 | Bills -0.4 | BYE - | Broncos -4.5 | Colts 1.4 | Cowboys 5.1 | Texans -1.8 | Chargers 0.4 | Titans 1.9 | Broncos -1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
Colts | 28.7 | 1.9 | Cardinals 3.7 | Chargers 0.1 | Titans 3.9 | Steelers -0.2 | Falcons 0.5 | BYE - | Chiefs -3.4 | Texans -1.2 | Jaguars -1.2 | Seahawks -3.9 | 49ers -1.2 | Jaguars 1.9 | -0.1 | -1.1 |
Raiders | 24.6 | 1.2 | Titans 3.3 | Chiefs -1.7 | BYE - | Jaguars 2.0 | Broncos -3.2 | Cowboys 1.8 | Browns 5.1 | Chargers 0.2 | Broncos -0.6 | Eagles -1.4 | Texans -1.3 | Giants 4.1 | 0.8 | 0.5 |
Patriots | 24.9 | 1.3 | Saints 2.9 | Titans 0.5 | Browns 1.8 | Falcons 0.0 | Buccaneers -1.2 | Jets 1.2 | Bengals -0.3 | Giants -1.4 | BYE - | Bills -0.3 | Ravens 3.5 | Jets -0.3 | 0.6 | 1.0 |
Titans | 23.4 | 1.1 | Raiders 2.5 | Patriots 0.5 | Colts 2.3 | Chargers -0.7 | BYE - | Texans -0.8 | Seahawks -0.1 | Jaguars 1.2 | Browns 2.1 | 49ers 0.9 | Chiefs 0.0 | Saints 3.6 | 1.0 | 1.5 |
Broncos | 28.4 | 0.3 | Jets 2.3 | Giants -0.8 | Cowboys 2.6 | Texans -2.8 | Raiders 1.3 | Chiefs -2.3 | BYE - | Commanders -2.1 | Raiders 1.9 | Packers -1.7 | Jaguars -0.8 | Chiefs -3.7 | -0.6 | -2.1 |
Saints | 24.9 | 0.8 | Patriots 2.1 | Bears -0.9 | Buccaneers 1.7 | Rams 0.4 | Panthers -2.2 | BYE - | Falcons 1.1 | Dolphins -1.7 | Buccaneers -1.1 | Panthers 0.8 | Jets 3.6 | Titans 0.3 | 0.4 | 1.5 |
Cowboys | 28.1 | 0.5 | Panthers 2.1 | Commanders 2.1 | Broncos -3.5 | Cardinals 1.3 | BYE - | Raiders 0.1 | Eagles 1.0 | Chiefs 0.8 | Lions 0.3 | Vikings -1.3 | Chargers 2.3 | Commanders -1.9 | 0.3 | -0.3 |
Packers | 28.7 | 1.4 | Bengals 2.0 | Cardinals 2.9 | Steelers -0.6 | Panthers 1.1 | Eagles -2.1 | Giants 1.3 | Vikings -1.3 | Lions 2.5 | Bears -0.7 | Broncos -2.2 | Bears 0.1 | Ravens 4.8 | 0.7 | 0.9 |
Steelers | 24.2 | 0.3 | Browns 1.6 | Bengals 0.7 | Packers -1.2 | Colts 0.1 | Chargers 0.7 | Bengals 2.1 | Bears 0.0 | Bills -1.0 | Ravens 2.0 | Dolphins -3.0 | Lions 1.8 | Browns 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.0 |
Eagles | 26.0 | -0.2 | Giants 1.1 | Vikings -3.3 | Giants 1.6 | BYE - | Packers -4.2 | Lions 0.6 | Cowboys 4.3 | Bears 0.7 | Chargers -2.7 | Raiders 2.7 | Commanders -1.3 | Bills -2.0 | -0.2 | -0.2 |
Rams | 36.0 | 1.0 | Ravens 0.6 | Jaguars -0.8 | BYE - | Saints 3.4 | 49ers -1.5 | Seahawks 0.6 | Buccaneers 2.9 | Panthers -1.2 | Cardinals 1.7 | Lions 1.1 | Seahawks -3.6 | Falcons -2.9 | 0.0 | -1.8 |
Cardinals | 22.1 | 0.2 | Colts 0.4 | Packers 0.4 | BYE - | Cowboys -0.3 | Seahawks -4.0 | 49ers 0.8 | Jaguars 0.4 | Buccaneers -1.7 | Rams 0.1 | Texans -2.6 | Falcons -1.1 | Bengals -1.2 | -0.8 | -1.6 |
Jaguars | 27.2 | 1.4 | Seahawks 0.2 | Rams 0.8 | BYE - | Raiders 3.2 | Texans -2.0 | Chargers -0.3 | Cardinals 2.3 | Titans 1.1 | Colts -0.3 | Jets 2.0 | Broncos -3.7 | Colts 0.5 | 0.4 | -0.4 |
Falcons | 26.5 | -0.2 | Bills -0.3 | 49ers -0.4 | Dolphins 1.5 | Patriots -1.5 | Colts 1.1 | Panthers 2.7 | Saints 2.8 | Jets 0.6 | Seahawks 1.4 | Buccaneers -0.7 | Cardinals 1.7 | Rams -2.2 | 0.6 | -0.4 |
Seahawks | 30.7 | -2.1 | Jaguars -0.4 | Texans -4.5 | BYE - | Commanders -1.5 | Cardinals 1.2 | Rams -0.1 | Titans 0.9 | Vikings -2.6 | Falcons -0.2 | Colts 0.5 | Rams 0.2 | Panthers -1.6 | -0.7 | -0.3 |
Buccaneers | 33.0 | 0.0 | 49ers -0.4 | Lions -1.7 | Saints 2.0 | BYE - | Patriots -0.4 | Bills -1.8 | Rams -0.8 | Cardinals 1.0 | Saints 1.4 | Falcons -0.3 | Panthers -2.1 | Dolphins -2.4 | -0.5 | -1.6 |
49ers | 25.4 | 1.8 | Buccaneers -0.7 | Falcons 3.0 | Texans 2.0 | Giants 3.0 | Rams 3.2 | Cardinals 4.8 | Panthers 0.5 | Browns 4.1 | BYE - | Titans 5.1 | Colts 1.8 | Bears 2.1 | 2.6 | 3.0 |
Chargers | 30.9 | -0.9 | Dolphins -0.8 | Colts 0.3 | Vikings -2.4 | Titans -0.7 | Steelers 0.5 | Jaguars -2.5 | BYE - | Raiders 3.1 | Eagles -4.0 | Chiefs -3.5 | Cowboys 2.1 | Texans -2.0 | -0.9 | -1.1 |
Dolphins | 25.8 | -0.7 | Chargers -0.9 | Browns -1.4 | Falcons -1.9 | Ravens 1.5 | Bills -2.3 | Commanders -2.2 | BYE - | Saints -1.1 | Jets -2.3 | Steelers -5.6 | Bengals -1.4 | Buccaneers -1.7 | -1.7 | -2.9 |
Bears | 29.7 | 0.7 | Commanders -1.5 | Saints 2.0 | Ravens 2.8 | Bengals -0.4 | Giants 1.5 | Vikings -2.3 | Steelers -0.1 | Eagles -2.2 | Packers -3.3 | Browns 2.2 | Packers -0.5 | 49ers -1.4 | -0.3 | 0.1 |
Bills | 29.8 | -1.6 | Falcons -1.5 | BYE - | Panthers -1.8 | Chiefs -1.5 | Dolphins -4.4 | Buccaneers 0.3 | Texans -1.6 | Steelers -1.8 | Bengals -0.5 | Patriots -2.4 | Browns 0.1 | Eagles -2.5 | -1.6 | -1.6 |
Browns | 21.7 | -0.8 | Steelers -1.8 | Dolphins 0.2 | Patriots -0.8 | BYE - | Jets 0.6 | Ravens 5.6 | Raiders 3.6 | 49ers 1.3 | Titans 3.5 | Bears 0.2 | Bills 1.2 | Steelers 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 |
Giants | 23.2 | -2.9 | Eagles -2.0 | Broncos -5.4 | Eagles -3.4 | 49ers -1.0 | Bears -2.0 | Packers -1.5 | Lions 0.7 | Patriots -5.7 | BYE - | Commanders -1.1 | Vikings -4.1 | Raiders 1.3 | -2.2 | -1.3 |
Jets | 24.0 | -1.0 | Broncos -2.3 | Panthers 0.1 | Bengals -0.9 | BYE - | Browns 2.4 | Patriots -1.8 | Ravens 2.1 | Falcons -0.6 | Dolphins -0.5 | Jaguars -1.1 | Saints 1.8 | Patriots -1.0 | -0.2 | -0.1 |
Lions | 31.4 | -1.4 | Chiefs -2.5 | Buccaneers 0.2 | BYE - | Vikings -1.9 | Commanders -0.5 | Eagles -1.9 | Giants 3.0 | Packers 2.3 | Cowboys 3.3 | Rams 0.4 | Steelers 2.8 | Vikings -1.7 | 0.3 | 0.5 |
Commanders | 30.6 | -2.3 | Bears -2.7 | Cowboys 2.9 | Chiefs -6.9 | Seahawks -2.4 | Lions -0.5 | Dolphins -3.0 | BYE - | Broncos -3.4 | Vikings -3.9 | Giants -1.4 | Eagles -1.9 | Cowboys 1.7 | -2.0 | -0.5 |
Bengals | 27.7 | 1.8 | Packers -2.9 | Steelers 2.4 | Jets 4.0 | Bears 3.5 | BYE - | Steelers 1.3 | Patriots 0.4 | Ravens 5.4 | Bills 0.6 | Ravens 7.7 | Dolphins 0.7 | Cardinals 3.9 | 2.5 | 4.1 |
Ravens | 29.7 | -4.1 | Rams -7.3 | BYE - | Bears -1.0 | Dolphins -3.8 | Vikings -5.5 | Browns -2.3 | Jets -1.5 | Bengals 0.1 | Steelers -1.3 | Bengals -2.1 | Patriots -3.0 | Packers -4.7 | -2.9 | -3.2 |
Texans | 26.9 | 0.3 | BYE - | Seahawks -4.1 | 49ers 3.4 | Broncos 1.6 | Jaguars 3.9 | Titans 2.6 | Bills 3.5 | Colts 1.4 | Chiefs -2.3 | Cardinals 5.0 | Raiders 6.2 | Chargers 2.0 | 2.1 | 4.4 |
Vikings | 27.3 | 1.6 | BYE - | Eagles 1.6 | Chargers 1.5 | Lions 1.7 | Ravens 6.5 | Bears 3.7 | Packers -0.4 | Seahawks -2.1 | Commanders 3.7 | Cowboys 4.4 | Giants 1.3 | Lions 3.7 | 2.3 | 3.1 |
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