Matchup Bonuses can help you predict if a fantasy player will score more or less than usual. We first model the team "Baseline", which represents the fantasy points expected from all team players at the given position. The rest of the table indicates the weekly deviations from this baseline-- i.e. the "matchup bonus". The AVG column therefore represents the rest-of-season strength of schedule.
|
Baseline
|
Next 4
|
16
|
17
|
AVG
|
Playoffs
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raiders | 16.3 | 7.1 | Jaguars 8.4 | Saints 5.9 | 7.1 | 5.2 |
| Cowboys | 26.6 | 3.9 | Buccaneers 6.9 | Eagles 0.8 | 3.9 | 1.9 |
| Falcons | 22.4 | 3.0 | Giants 5.1 | Commanders 0.9 | 3.0 | 3.6 |
| Colts | 25.8 | 2.1 | Titans 4.9 | Giants -0.6 | 2.1 | 1.0 |
| Buccaneers | 31.2 | 1.3 | Cowboys 3.7 | Panthers -1.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| Giants | 22.6 | 1.2 | Falcons 3.5 | Colts -1.2 | 1.2 | 2.6 |
| Jaguars | 20.3 | 1.9 | Raiders 1.8 | Titans 2.1 | 1.9 | 0.2 |
| Steelers | 18.9 | -0.2 | Ravens 1.8 | Chiefs -2.2 | -0.2 | -0.2 |
| Jets | 27.8 | 1.0 | Rams 1.5 | Bills 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.5 |
| Dolphins | 26.0 | 1.6 | 49ers 1.3 | Browns 1.9 | 1.6 | 2.2 |
| Bengals | 33.4 | 0.4 | Browns 1.1 | Broncos -0.3 | 0.4 | 1.1 |
| Seahawks | 29.3 | 0.6 | Vikings 0.6 | Bears 0.5 | 0.6 | 1.3 |
| Bills | 31.0 | -1.1 | Patriots 0.5 | Jets -2.8 | -1.1 | -0.4 |
| Panthers | 25.1 | 1.8 | Cardinals 0.5 | Buccaneers 3.1 | 1.8 | 2.8 |
| Packers | 32.0 | 1.5 | Saints 0.4 | Vikings 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.2 |
| Chiefs | 24.1 | -0.7 | Texans 0.4 | Steelers -1.8 | -0.7 | -0.8 |
| Bears | 24.7 | -0.3 | Lions 0.2 | Seahawks -0.7 | -0.3 | 0.4 |
| Titans | 23.3 | 2.0 | Colts 0.2 | Jaguars 3.8 | 2.0 | 1.2 |
| Browns | 20.3 | 0.1 | Bengals 0.1 | Dolphins 0.1 | 0.1 | 1.7 |
| Chargers | 27.0 | 0.2 | Broncos 0.0 | Patriots 0.3 | 0.2 | 1.4 |
| Patriots | 17.9 | 0.3 | Bills -0.8 | Chargers 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| Eagles | 28.8 | 0.5 | Commanders -0.9 | Cowboys 1.9 | 0.5 | -0.4 |
| Broncos | 29.5 | -0.7 | Chargers -1.2 | Bengals -0.2 | -0.7 | -0.8 |
| Commanders | 29.9 | 0.4 | Eagles -1.3 | Falcons 2.2 | 0.4 | 1.4 |
| Rams | 37.6 | -2.0 | Jets -1.6 | Cardinals -2.3 | -2.0 | -0.2 |
| Lions | 32.3 | -1.4 | Bears -1.6 | 49ers -1.2 | -1.4 | -0.9 |
| Cardinals | 22.4 | -0.2 | Panthers -2.1 | Rams 1.7 | -0.2 | 0.2 |
| Texans | 29.8 | 1.7 | Chiefs -2.2 | Ravens 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 |
| Ravens | 26.3 | -0.7 | Steelers -3.0 | Texans 1.6 | -0.7 | -1.6 |
| 49ers | 27.6 | -4.4 | Dolphins -3.1 | Lions -5.7 | -4.4 | -2.4 |
| Saints | 14.3 | 1.2 | Packers -3.2 | Raiders 5.5 | 1.2 | 1.8 |
| Vikings | 32.2 | -1.4 | Seahawks -4.8 | Packers 2.0 | -1.4 | -1.4 |
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