Note Oct 27th the betting lines were accidentally continuing “live”, during the first Sunday games, whereas normally I freeze the imports prior to kick-off. I’ve now made sure to correct / restore the betting lines table for those games, to how they appeared around 12:30 EST before those matches.

October 22nd, 2024

Reddit Early-week D/ST post here. If it does not get enough visibility with upvotes, then this will be my last post for a while.

Website work

Things are not static here! After recently launching the D/ST commenting feature— which has got some great use— we’re working on new visualizations to assist with your streaming picks. Stay tuned.

Last week

Week 7 was great for showing the way things should be working.

• The D/ST models did excellent for the week, and for the first time this season, outperformed all sources I monitor. It was surprisingly predictable, considering that the outlook was very shaky— lots more even matches, lots of mediocre defenses rated high for their matchup.

• Kickers continued a great run— 3 weeks in a row of very good kicker behavior. Of course, there are a couple “doinks” every week, for all rankers, among their top 8. Everybody whiffed on Koo. In my case it was Karty who goes in the hall of shame. For other kicker rankers, it was McPherson, and Butker too.

• All “A” pathways won in Survivor, so no interruptions this week.

• And Betting Lines continued their gradual rebound, with very normal behavior for the 4th week in a row. We’ve almost caught up to the “coin toss” baseline, and I believe the newest updates played a part in this, partly because a greater range of bets get suggested, which keeps the risk lower.

This week

It will be interesting to see if D/STs turn out as predictable as week 7. The current week 8 has a lot more “easy streaming” matchups, with great defenses preying on weaker teams. In theory, this should be easier than last week, but week 7 worked out surprisingly well.

No byes this week, but remember to always use the “Look-ahead”— one of the main features here at Subvertadown, for planning your subsequent weeks.

/Subvertadown