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Check-list -- Reminders -- Things That Always Need Repeating

  • It's not just fantasy results that are random-- Real world football is random. The rate of upsets is 35% compared to consensus predictions!

  • Go with your gut and narrative you like in the end; rankings are a statistical guideline.

  • Don't sweat it with choosing among my top 8 kickers!!! I've shown there's little difference in average score. I'm this || close to shuffling them and calling it "tier 1", just to put people's minds at ease.

  • Beyond my top 10 D/STs, there's often a greater risk of going negative and you need to consider sitting. Then lean towards the later game in case you can pull your D/ST.

  • D/STs depend only 1/3 on own defensive capability; the remaining 2/3 is on the opposing offense.

  • All rankings are bad. Mine are bad too. Mine should look less-bad than others, but usually you will not notice-- they will just look bad. Welcome to fantasy.

  • You should view your choice of D/ST, like many fantasy positions, as decreasing the risk of a bust. Don't expect boom games.

  • 4-5 points is not a bust D/ST score in default scoring; and 6 points is not a bust kicker performance.

  • My QB rankings (and kicker) can look very different from other sources. They are calibrated adjustment for opponent, running-game adjustment, etc. Since QB can be controversial, in the sense of emotional, maybe treat them as a potential boom/bust-likelihood-detector.

  • Remember to try and look ahead to the next week.

  • If you don't feel like you have a good strategy for your bench stashes, then holding next-week's best D/ST is not a terrible idea. Also if it will save you a waiver claim or Faab.

  • Don't pay so much attention to "order" or who's "on top". The projection NUMBERS are what guide you, and often there are several candidates really close to each other. Sometimes you all ask why someone "dropped" a couple spots, and in reality they lost 0.1 points.

  • If in doubt on D/ST, a great simple guide is the implied points-allowed, according to betting lines. Just average the O/U and the spread.

  • For kicker, the implied own-team score is a decent guideline (better than game total), with similar accuracy to most experts (so, not that great).

  • Remember that a team implied score of 30 points often involve PATs with not much FG potential. FGs most determine fantasy kicker scoring.

  • You can also get your own thought process more involved to help empower you with more responsibility in your kicker selection, and to embolden your gut feel if it goes against rankings:. For example, here is a quick checklist: 

    1. If a kicker is low, do you expect their team to actually win, even when betting lines predict a loss? Then go for it even if the rankings say not to. 

    2. If a kicker is high, do you instead expect their team to lose, even when predicted to win? Then stay away even if the rankings suggest choosing him. 

    3. Can you foresee a scenario where the kicker's own defense lets the opponent build up a large early lead? Then stay away even if highly ranked.

    4. Will the opposing QB underperform relative to expectations? Go for it. 

    5. Does the opposing defense usually give up more than 27 points? Risky.