By Subvertadown
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Background , ModelingI originally did not expect the time intensity involved with creating and maintaining models. At first, I thought some clever tricks could find patterns and quickly “crack the code”. Unfortunately, I learned there are huge time sinks.
For many followers, the Subvertadown project has been a story of continual improvement. The models require continuous maintenance, to consistently perform well. I recently read the Superforecasters book, which reaffirmed by belief: for the best forecasters, everything is in “perpetual beta”. There never comes a point of feeling it’s finished product!
And in-season, I spend a lot of time analyzing the model results, so I can identify and explain what is causing an observed trend. (Why is team X rated lower than they were expected last week?)
The Subvertadown project has always been about more than the models themselves: it has often been about trying to make sense of things— generating new ideas, a lot of trial-and-error, and then incorporating new learnings. It will always be a Work in Progress.
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Expectations , Current Season , AccuracyTagged under
Expectations , Understanding Statistics , Accuracy , KickerTagged under
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Expectations , Weekly StrategyTagged under
Expectations , Understanding Statistics , D/ST , QuarterbackTagged under
Expectations , Weekly Strategy , AccuracyTagged under
Expectations , Understanding Statistics , Accuracy , KickerTagged under
Expectations , Modeling , AccuracyTagged under
Expectations , AccuracyTagged under
Expectations , Betting LinesTagged under
Expectations , Understanding StatisticsTagged under
Expectations , Understanding Statistics , KickerTagged under
Expectations , Understanding Statistics , Weekly Strategy , Kicker , Quarterback , ExclusiveTagged under
Season Strategy , D/STTagged under
Expectations , Weekly StrategyTagged under
Expectations , KickerTagged under
Expectations , KickerTagged under
Modeling , D/STTagged under
Weekly Strategy , D/STTagged under
Expectations , Weekly Strategy , D/STTagged under
Expectations , D/STTagged under
Modeling , D/ST