A lot of my interest in starting analytics came out of Reddit discussions. It seemed like there were a lot of theories floating around, but there was no data to support them.
Here's an example referencing an old discussion-- Did QBs score more fantasy points if they were on bad defenses? There were arguments on both sides at the time. A bad defense meant the QB had to throw more to catch up.... or was it actually that a good D got off the field more quickly so the QB had more chances? As you can see, I found no trend when just looking at fantasy scores. To me this meant there was a lot of room to try and clarify trends.
Anyway, I first got interested in making rankings because there were 3 things I found missing from many ranking sources:
I felt there must be room to improve their predictive accuracy.
With D/ST, I felt like in-season matchups were not being compared correctly, while last-season biases lingered, etc.
With Kicker, I thought rankers were biased toward "feel good" candidates based on prior years. And I guessed there wasn't enough investigation of how kicking depends on various offensive qualities.
And with QB, I strongly suspected that there was a lot of crowd-pleasing in the rankings. I especially thought there's not enough attention to the strengths of the opposing defense
Rankers were not disclosing their methods. Without knowing what information they assessed, it was hard to judge how much stake to put into them.
Did they make guesses? Use their eye-test? Borrow external stats? Crunch their own numbers? It seemed a lot like there was intuitive guess work, instead of measurements and tested math.
I wanted projections beyond the current week. I wanted to see, at the very least, 1 extra week look-ahead of D/ST projections, for planning purposes.
This is why (1) I went deep into model development, (2) why I tell you my methods and what numbers I consider, and (3) why I put some focus on future week forecasting.
Tagged underAccuracy , Current Season , Expectations