By Subvertadown
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BackgroundSubvertadown is in its 5th year, and the project has always been under continuous evolution.
The project became serious after realizing a first year of dabbling was enough to get above-average D/ST accuracy.
For the second year, I implemented the original vision: combining time-series data processing and machine learning techniques, to reach near-top accuracy and allow future week forecasting. The kicker model was unbeaten among tracked sources.
The third season was a wave of successful forecasting, after improvements to overfit reduction and better incorporation of betting lines. Plus a new QB model showed that top accuracy was possible.
For year 4, I created a new data processing method, while greatly widening the scope of input parameters. Accuracy was top-notch for all models, and significantly, the model was implemented online for “real-time” updated webpages instead of static table images. It was also the year I expanded to 25 models, for supplementary stats, and introduced a “closest historical match” tool.
Year 5 is special again, not just because of the website launch, but because of a few combined maturations: 12 full years of data are incorporated, the learnings from last year’s data expansion are taken in, and data processing has again received an overhaul after scientific testing during the off-season. While results are never guaranteed, Subvertadown models have never been so well prepared.
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Season Strategy , Understanding Statistics , Weekly Strategy , KickerTagged under
Expectations , Weekly StrategyTagged under
How to Use , Understanding Statistics , Survivor PoolsTagged under
Expectations , Understanding Statistics , Accuracy , KickerTagged under
Expectations , Understanding StatisticsTagged under
Expectations , Weekly StrategyTagged under
Understanding Statistics , Weekly Strategy , QuarterbackTagged under
Expectations , Understanding Statistics , D/ST , QuarterbackTagged under
Expectations , Weekly Strategy , AccuracyTagged under
Understanding Statistics , Weekly Strategy , ExclusiveTagged under
Expectations , Understanding Statistics , Accuracy , KickerTagged under
Expectations , Understanding StatisticsTagged under
Expectations , Understanding Statistics , KickerTagged under
Expectations , Understanding Statistics , Weekly Strategy , Kicker , Quarterback , ExclusiveTagged under
Modeling , Understanding StatisticsTagged under
How to Use , Weekly Strategy , Betting LinesTagged under
Understanding Statistics , Betting LinesTagged under
Understanding Statistics , Betting LinesTagged under
Understanding Statistics , AccuracyTagged under
Understanding Statistics , AccuracyTagged under
Modeling , ExclusiveTagged under
Expectations , Weekly StrategyTagged under
Understanding StatisticsTagged under
Weekly Strategy , KickerTagged under
Weekly Strategy , D/STTagged under
Expectations , Weekly Strategy , D/ST