20 Fantasy Parameters, from Most to Least Predictable

Here is an illustration of how random fantasy football is.

It is a high level view of the predictability of different football-related and fantasy-related variables. Kind of a summary of my research, with a good deal of oversimplification.

To hopefully give an added layer of insight, I am ordering various targets by correlation coefficient. I believe the numbers represent characteristic levels of predictability, based the analyses I have done.

I've explained before why the correlation coefficient is a good representation of skill/luck, or predictability/randomness. And I've given updated overviews by position. A few scatterplots are thrown in, to give a better portrayal of actual randomness than a simple bar.

There are a few uses of this:

  • setting your expectations

  • understanding and reacting to results

  • understanding possible improvements

  • how you configure your league settings