The following shows how predictable/random the last years have been for "Vegas" (betting lines), in comparison to 2021. For each year, I show the correlation coefficient between lines and results:

_{The season predictability (from betting lines) has been trending to a level almost as low as 2017. The spread has been most difficult, in relative terms.}

The blue line (implied game score) is trending towards 0.3 (the level of '17), which indicates the difficulty of making good picks based on match-up-- especially D/ST. So let's check the streaming positions (K,D/ST,QB) and see that D/ST and QB do actually follow a similar trend:

_{I am also indicating the predictability in the first half of each season, for a more direct comparison against the current year.}

A few takeaways:

• The QB and D/ST trends roughly match the trend of Vegas-implied team scores (shown in the first chart above).

• D/ST plunged again in 2021 due to several weeks of mid-season betting line upsets.

• The first half of each year has actually been more predictable for D/ST (and QB), compared to the second half of the season.

• Kicker has apparently gotten more difficult the last couple years-- roughly following the same trend as betting line spread predictabilities.

Finally, we might as well also show the Flex position predictabilities for good measure:

_{The "first-half-season trend" is shown separately only for TE, because it is the only position with notable difference between the start and end of each season (getting more predictable by season-end).}

• By eyeball, all the RB/WR/TE trends follow a trend like the O/U line of the first plot.

• TE tends to be most predictable, but only comes through in the second half of each season.

• RB (again: total team-RB, not individual RB1s) is least predictable, most seasons.

• Team-WR is having a great season so far, despite increased randomness for all other positions.

TL;DR-- Fantasy rankings have (all) encountered a slump due to increased levels of upsets (upsets relative to betting lines). There are not many ways to beat betting line consensus, and D/ST and QB have taken the biggest hits.