By Subvertadown
Tagged under
Accuracy , ExpectationsThe following shows how predictable/random the last years have been for "Vegas" (betting lines), in comparison to 2021. For each year, I show the correlation coefficient between lines and results:
The season predictability (from betting lines) has been trending to a level almost as low as 2017. The spread has been most difficult, in relative terms.
The blue line (implied game score) is trending towards 0.3 (the level of '17), which indicates the difficulty of making good picks based on match-up-- especially D/ST. So let's check the streaming positions (K,D/ST,QB) and see that D/ST and QB do actually follow a similar trend:
I am also indicating the predictability in the first half of each season, for a more direct comparison against the current year.
A few takeaways:
The QB and D/ST trends roughly match the trend of Vegas-implied team scores (shown in the first chart above).
D/ST plunged again in 2021 due to several weeks of mid-season betting line upsets.
The first half of each year has actually been more predictable for D/ST (and QB), compared to the second half of the season.
Kicker has apparently gotten more difficult the last couple years-- roughly following the same trend as betting line spread predictabilities.
Finally, we might as well also show the Flex position predictabilities for good measure:
The "first-half-season trend" is shown separately only for TE, because it is the only position with notable difference between the start and end of each season (getting more predictable by season-end).
By eyeball, all the RB/WR/TE trends follow a trend like the O/U line of the first plot.
TE tends to be most predictable, but only comes through in the second half of each season.
RB (again: total team-RB, not individual RB1s) is least predictable, most seasons.
Team-WR is having a great season so far, despite increased randomness for all other positions.
TL;DR-- Fantasy rankings have (all) encountered a slump due to increased levels of upsets (upsets relative to betting lines). There are not many ways to beat betting line consensus, and D/ST and QB have taken the biggest hits.
Tagged under
Expectations , Current Season , Updates / NewsTagged under
Current Season , Updates / NewsTagged under
Expectations , Accuracy , Updates / NewsTagged under
Expectations , Weekly StrategyTagged under
Background , Updates / NewsTagged under
Expectations , Understanding Statistics , Accuracy , KickerTagged under
Expectations , Understanding StatisticsTagged under
Expectations , Weekly StrategyTagged under
Expectations , Understanding Statistics , D/ST , QuarterbackTagged under
Expectations , Weekly Strategy , AccuracyTagged under
Expectations , Understanding Statistics , Accuracy , KickerTagged under
Expectations , Modeling , AccuracyTagged under
Expectations , AccuracyTagged under
Expectations , Betting LinesTagged under
Expectations , Understanding StatisticsTagged under
Expectations , Understanding Statistics , KickerTagged under
Expectations , Understanding Statistics , Weekly Strategy , Kicker , Quarterback , ExclusiveTagged under
Understanding Statistics , AccuracyTagged under
Understanding Statistics , AccuracyTagged under
Background , AccuracyTagged under
Expectations , Weekly StrategyTagged under
Expectations , KickerTagged under
Expectations , KickerTagged under
Expectations , Weekly Strategy , D/STTagged under
Expectations , D/STTagged under
Expectations , Accuracy , Prev. Season / ArchiveTagged under
How to Use , Updates / News , Prev. Season / ArchiveTagged under
How to Use , Updates / News , Prev. Season / ArchiveTagged under
Accuracy , Updates / News , Prev. Season / ArchiveTagged under
Accuracy , Kicker , Betting Lines , Prev. Season / ArchiveTagged under
Accuracy , Prev. Season / Archive