By Subvertadown
D/ST is where I started, due to a slew of bad picks from other rankings. I thought rankers were assuming that certain statistics were predictive, without testing them. I was especially frustrated about the inability to identify early-season D/ST break-outs, by intelligently using information from the new season. I thought rankers weren't judging past defensive performances by the strength of their past opposing teams.
Verdict: It turns out there was room for improvement, and my models’ successes have surprised even myself. D/ST prediction can’t get a LOT better-- because the randomness will always overwhelm the trends. Still, accounting for strength-of-opponent still form the basis of all my data processing and gives an extra advantage in forecasting.
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