November 19th

Here is a new analysis about how significant it is when a kicker scores multiple weeks in a row with 10+ fantasy points!

November 15th, 2022

Here is the Reddit post for community discussion

Kicker-geddon was upon us!

All kicker ranking sources were better turned upside-down last week. From my hand-picked consensus of others’ external kicker rankings, these were the fantasy scores in order: 3, 2, 2, 4, 7, 6, 3, 13, 6, 3. My own rankings were no better than that. Kickers are more random than other positions, but this was an even rarer event of kicker insanity.

To commemorate it, let’s look at the distribution of historical kicker correlations (where 0 is completely random):

As you can see, Week 10 was matched the previous record worst kicker predictability of the last 12 years.

November 14th, 2022

I don’t normally write here a day early. I don’t normally get invested in any specific fantasy outcome. And I normally don’t feel attached to specific betting line outcomes.

But this week, I felt it was worth firstly acknowledging week 10’s biggest betting line blunders— and secondly airing out my own surprise and dismay, with some comments on those games. It was an exceptional and abnormal week: the 5 most sizeable bets (among the 15 suggested) all fell through. (Total loss 70%.) I was initially glad to finally see more than 10 lines get recommended— which has not been so common during this particular season.

In advance of the games, I personally felt “those main suggestions seem reasonable”. I also thought “at least 1 of them has to come through”… by quick head math: “the probability that they all fall through is less than 3%”! Even if they were all literally coin flips. But it did happen, and that means we need to get back to break-even, for the season.

Here were the biggest calls:

• Bills & Vikings: Under. Snow games don’t typically end with 63 points. Wasn’t Josh Allen just barely able to grip the ball?

• Saints to beat Steelers: Really, Saints lose? After the Steelers have averaged 15 points all season? And 11.5 points in the last month? Meanwhile the Saints averaging 26 points the last 6 weeks? I can’t wrap my head around the poor usage of Kamara and Taysom Hill. Numbers aside, I personally feel astounded.

• Giants & Texans: Over 41.5. So close (at 40 points), this was actually the easiest one for me to accept.

• Cowboys cover Packers: Cowboys actually LOST? To the anemic Packers, who are averaging 17 points (14 the last month) and with multiple D-liners out, not to mention Doubs? How did the Cowboys D not pick the bones? This call had also seemed justified to me, regardless of the model spitting it out.

• Finally, Seahawks & Buccaneers: Over 45. This was really all about expectations for the Seahawks. Averaging 32 points the last 6 weeks— and yes we knew the Buccaneers D would be tough— but we also knew a few of that D-line were ruled out. I’ve read others suspecting the jet-lag from Seattle as the culprit, but still 16 points is a hard one to accept.

Anyway, we can only look forward to some comebacks. At least last week I could have said we’re covering the odds with more than 53%. And I will of course do the only thing I can do besides worrying: to keep snooping for ways to improve fidelity. Hang tight.

/Subvertadown