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2022 First Month Accuracy Roundup

Welcome to my first "accuracy review" for 2022!

The content is going to be a bit different from now on, so let me explain:

  1. I'll report (monthly now) the overview of how all my OWN models are performing, as I did before.

  • HOWEVER, I need your understanding! The model accuracies have already been developed to describe previous seasons, and the key models have been "proven" before, by in-season testing against other sources.

  • THIS MEANS: At this point, what the chart really shows is "how predictable was the current week or season". Not "how good is the model" So we can conclude things like "Kickers were tough to predict in 2020". Or "D/STs were tough to predict in week 3".

I'm trying to say that the point of the graph is to help you anchor your understanding of the season. You shouldn't interpret it as a referendum on my models. If a model is lagging, it doesn't mean that after multiple years the model is suddenly failing. Instead, it means this season is probably different in some way-- and there are significant variations in "predictability" across seasons.

Anyway, here's the chart covering this last month gone by:

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  • All positions (models) had a tough start in week 1 (except QB), which contributed to the early season average being lower than expectations.

  • In particular the TE and Kicker positions have been tough for the models to predict. Will this continue in 2022?

  • QB, RB, and D/ST are doing fine.

  • Game score models have gone quite well (above Vegas), except week 1, and the good accuracy so far has brought advantages on betting lines. This trend tends to change around week 6, but let's keep an eye on it, and always be wary of gambling risk.

Comparative Accuracy Assessment

This is the section that I am significantly downsizing: How the models did compared to other sources.

There are two reasons I'm greatly reducing this section:

  1. Actually I announced early last season that I was stopping this (though I didn't), just because the time burden is so huge. I even created a submission form, for you to send other rankings lists to me. Nobody really took up this task-- and I understand it! It just takes a really long time to collect and format all the data from different sources. Correcting misspellings, distinguishing different QBs named Jones or Allen, etc. At this point, my models have been proven enough that you guys gave me feedback (and I agree) is that this is less essential than it used to be.

  2. The second reason I am stopping accuracy comparisons is because of this website... which theoretically doesn't change anything, but-- It now feels sketchy "call out" other rankers in cases when they may not perform as accurately. Even though-- I maintain--- I choose the best sources I can find, to compare against-- which really has been a compliment and endorsement! In fact it has probably steered some of you to seek them out, which is also great.

Defensive Maneuvers

Having said that, I have collected D/ST rankings only so far (it takes less time than other positions).

Here is how things are so far this season-- and now you must keep in mind that I am judging everything by ESPN scoring.

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As you can see, for this month, I have decided to label the other D/ST sources by what their final ranking was last year. I don't know whether I’ll continue this labeling, but I wanted to make the point that what you're really looking for in a good D/ST source is the ability to keep it up across different seasons.

The upshot is that 4 of us sources are very close in net accuracy, despite having different ups and downs. Despite a rough season start for D/ST, the model is getting on the right track.

So that's it! Again, this will not be a main focus of mine this year. I mainly use the top graph so I can check if my new model revisions are keeping pace. But it also helps psychologically just to understand if we're in an easy or tough season. The answer is 2022 is (and I think will continue) to be tougher than other seasons of the last 5 years. Hold tight!