Kickers are notoriously difficult to predict, and many consider it hopeless to improve. This—combined with a perceived “lack of game action”-- has led some to advocate deleting the position.
The Subvertadown view is somewhat different. It is possible to predict kicker scoring accurately enough to make it strategic (as opposed to random). And while kicker is among the most difficult to predict, the truth is that all fantasy positions have poor predictability. Looking at the total fantasy roster, kickers do not add more marginal randomness than the amount of predictable point control.
Prevailing advice versus Subvertadown:
Target a kicker on a high-scoring offense (countind TDs and not just kicks). Verdict: True!
Find a strong team that stalls in the red zone. Verdict: Weak; not reproducible to have the predictive value people tend to believe in.
Kick in a dome. Verdict: Weak or almost false. High winds definitely affect accuracy, already included in projections; otherwise no bonus from domes.
Look for 50+ yard opportunities. Verdict: Weak. The dependencies of the kicker position are subtle, and other things matter more.
Tagged underBackground , Modeling