November 18, 2025

[Note November 22, 4pmEST: Corrected a false inflation affecting all teams’ D/ST projections— You will notice a drop in numbers, but the ordering shouldn’t change much. As we passed from “mid” season to “late” season, the models were earlier wrongly adding an extra fraction from the “mid” season model, which caused all D/ST projections to appear too high. I.e. Seahawks should never have been projected as high as 15.]

[Kicker post here on Reddit]

Last-week Recap — Week 11

I don’t have a lot to say, but a quick Accuracy highlight seems in order, while things are up-up-up.

Accuracy have been on a real roll recently: fantastic in comparison to other rankers, for Kicker, D/ST, and even QB.

I hope it’s been noticeable for you somehow! (At least McCarthy did better than Lamar…)

Beyond the models for streaming positions, the Betting Lines brought their second-biggest weekly return of the season, with an ROI above 35%. So, even if you joined before the week 9 losses, anyone should have a net positive gain, overall.

I was surprised to see that the Kickers model has had well above-average accuracy— for 4 weeks straight! (Weeks 8, 9, 10, and 11.) I’ve been fixated on the very difficult 4 weeks (3, 4, 5, and 6)— So it was hard to realize when the ship righted itself. My model did especially well this past week 11.

D/ST accuracy has also been unbeaten the last 2 weeks, especially the ESPN model doesn’t have any close competition.

Quarterbacks were highly unpredictable in week 11. I rarely get to say it, but QB results were almost a coin-flip for the week. Players like Young and Fields were at the bottom of the rankings but returned great fantasy results. Meanwhile, players like Lamar and Herbert flopped despite being top-ranked by many.

I hope you’ve had the chance to try the D/ST Pairing Tool. This is probably the time to start planning ahead and get the most from the look-ahead part of the strategy.

Good luck in week 12, where we’ll overall just hope for more of the same.

/Subvertadown