Fantasy Football Articles & Model Guides

[UPDATE Wed. 11amEST - Updates to Betting Lines Spreads, results in canceling a number of Tuesday’s suggestions. Sorry for the disruption, this is part of the promised updating going on. There shouldn’t be any more chang

[NOTICE Sunday 2pm: The data accidentally kept importing after the 1pmEST game starts, and this caused some fluctuations in the rankings displayed after game time. You will notice “blips” in the projections (you’ll see i

October 13, 2026 After 5 weeks, we’re getting our lay of the land. For some of us, that means a chance to right the ship, if things have started rough. Either way, we’ve got 5 full weeks of data collected now, which mean

October 5, 2026 Time to reflect on the predictability of the 2025 season so far! If you’re new to these: Examining predictive accuracy has been a long-standing tradition, underpinning a key purpose of Subvertadown: To gi

September 29, 2026 We’re in full swing now! While the chaotic season rolls on, the website meanwhile has a few updates to help you: TAPsheets let you tailor your ROS rankings! No longer do you need to rely on default ROS

September 22, 2026 It really feels like the NFL fall, now. There was no let up from the onslaught of chaos! My 2 biggest news items for site updates: FLEX rankings. As I announced last week in my Newsletter (sign up!). S

September 15, 2026 Welcome back to those familiar feelings. It’s shocking your roster didn’t do exactly what you expected! My 3 biggest news items: 2-minute video. To get the most out of using the website, see below “How

Hello everyone, and welcome to a new season at the Subvertadown website! My favorite thing here is honestly the FUN — It’s an analyst’s dream for decision-making! Every number you see is a modeled output. Every sensitivi

This year's Kicker Wall of Shame. No serious accuracy report here— just a fun and cathartic way to deal with each week’s biggest disappointments. To qualify, a kicker normally needs to be high in my ranked list (top 8-is

“Upside” gets tons of talk for drafting strategy. I wanted to dig in deep and find out where to find it. I’m analyzing “where to find Upside” on 2 parameters, in this study: (1) Fantasy position (QB/RB/WR/TE) and (2) Dra

September 3, 2026 Is streaming the QB position a good fantasy strategy? Is it even viable? My keen interest is always to see what the data says. Let’s not go by anecdotes and opinions. We let the data talk. To investigat

The question of SoS is one of the topics I've tried to understand-- obsessively. It's up there with "Where does each Position get most 'Upside' in the draft?" And "When does it pay off to stream QB?" What's Different Thi

If you’re asking about why the Position column “ranks” can appear out of order in TapThatDraft and Hold-My-BeerSheets, then here’s a quick explainer. This only applies to Snake drafts (not Auction). Three Reasons Why Pla

Hello everyone, and welcome to a new season at the Subvertadown website! To enjoy as best possible, here’s an overview of how you’re intended to use the offerings here. History When I launched Subvertadown.com a few year

I've been excited to share with you this updated new study. It's about your relative payoff from drafting each different fantasy position. It's about the fantasy "return on investment", so to speak: Which position (QB/RB

August 18, 2026 Hey everyone! For reference, this is a summary of functions that don’t (yet) exist in TapThatDraft. Background TapThatDraft has evolved significantly, since its launch one year ago. We most especially add

This article describes how TapThatDraft’s player ordering helps with timing your draft picks. At first glance, the ordering might seem jumbled sometimes — and this is because of anchoring to the opponent list by Referenc

September 2nd, 2026 Access TapThatDraft Here! [Follow me on Instagram!] Now there is a separate Subscription tier, unlocking TapThatDraft features— that we upgraded in 2026! (There hasn’t previously been any subscription

The purpose of TapThatDraft is to distill the essential information to decide on your pick, in the heat of a draft. That’s why it’s designed as a serious tool with a minimalist look. From a clear, logical interface, you

June 7, 2026 TL;DR— The below explains all the reasons why I designed a new option for you to re-order player rankings, when you customize your cheat sheets [<- link to the free tool right here]. I explain how the method

June 14, 2026 Draft Day is usually considered the most important event of the fantasy season. A strong draft gives a feeling of promise and security. A weak draft sets the season off with a mood of regret and the need to

January 7, 2026 [TL;DR— This was overall a great season for Subvertadown, maybe the best ever. Betting lines returned overall positive ROI, and Survivor failures were fewer than normal. The D/ST models came out clear #1

Hold-My-BeerSheets are fantasy draft cheat-sheets for people who want: precise underlying numbers that get summarized in a very clean format. (For quick-n-easy instructions to generate them, use this linked article.) Peo

This is the first in a series of primers. I hope it helps! You’re missing the point, if you treat customized draft sheets like just any rankings list. At Subvertadown, the main tool for draft assistance is TapThatDraft.

Our fantasy draft cheat-sheets (TapThatDraft tool, and printable Hold-My-BeerSheets) bring the power of VBD strategy into highly usable form. But before blindly using a VBD draft sheet, I will outline below the basics co

November 11, 2025 After a test run, we’re ready and have launched the D/ST Pairing tool. Visible to anyone who has access on the D/ST “Details” page, you can follow the link and try it out. The purpose is to search for d

It’s probably not obvious to you, but I really got myself into a fix— How easy it would be to recommend all bets only at Closing! Opening lines cause trouble because the models and lines change— simultaneously— during th

This is a practical list of recommendations for getting the best use of TapThatDraft. Preferably, you should already understand the main purpose of such tools, as written up here. My advice (and opinions) may apply to an

Welcome to draft weekends. The original How-to-Use guide is here. And the following Reddit Posts describe the most recent developments: Hold-My-BeerSheets: A formatted 1-pager, Ready to Print! Reference lists integrated

This is a guide to help you select the right “Valuation” type, when you use a fantasy football drafting tool like TapThatDraft(and its printable 1-pager, Hold-My-BeerSheets). The terminology of Value-Based Drafting can b

Have you wondered why value-over-baseline calculations translate into a viable strategy for Auction formats? This is a follow up to my description of the Different Baselines in Value Based Drafting. Even if you’re not us

TapThatDraft is for those who want to customize a Minimalist draft cheat sheet, that still shows all the most important information, while keeping the robust math out of sight. You want a simple, trusty cheat-sheet. On p

Summary / TL;DR For snake drafts, typical “Value-over-baseline” metrics alone are deficient for addressing the effect that positional scarcity has on maximizing points. To address the risks of missed opportunity in snake

2018 D/ST: 1 2 3 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 playoffs 11 playoffs 12 13 14 15 16 17 Kicker: 1 2 2 3 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 ROS 12 13 14+ QB: 16 2019 D/ST: 0 1 1 2 2 2 3 3 3 4 4 5 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 11 12 13 14 14 15 16 Kicker: 0 1

This article is a natural follow-up to my discussion about Skill-Luck Ratio for each position (and Correlation Coefficients). Strength in Numbers: aggregate error All the above discussion treats fantasy positions as indi

It's not just fantasy results that are random-- Real world football is random. The rate of upsets is 35% compared to consensus predictions! Go with your gut and narrative you like in the end; rankings are a statistical g

This year's Kicker Wall of Shame. No serious accuracy report here— just a fun and cathartic way to deal with each week’s biggest disappointments. To qualify, a kicker normally needs to be high in my ranked list (top 8-is

Finding Upside in Fantasy Drafts Welcome to a fresh look at Upside—a rather murky aspect of draft strategy! This analysis is about a topic a lot of us seem to think is important: finding Upside potential in your draft. M

Here is a description of our new visualization for kickers, which can enhance your decision making. In very short: The curve in the tool shows, for each yard line, the expected number of occurrences of a drive stopping t

Subvertadown uses a scientific approach to provide fantasy football players with forecasts and strategic insights. Subvertadown is especially geared towards players who appreciate: High transparency: openness about the m

In my Survivor Strategy article, I outlined the main features of my approach. Now I will explain how I present the advice from my algorithm. You can better choose among the optimal paths recommended, if you also understa

I got a lot of requests to analyze kicker streaming. So I crunched a whole bunch new simulation programs, to try and find out whether it's better to hold or stream kickers. There were some mixed inputs from discussions h

October 1st, 2022 I have been so eager to make this analysis since January! It has just taken this long to get everything in place-- first the models, then the simulation programming, and now the communication. I hope yo

In 2022, I started using my weekly game score forecasting models for a new purpose: generating advice for Survivor Pools. What’s different about the Subvertadown Strategy? Main features: The main input is from my own for

As covered in my Survivor strategy article, my algorithms seek to optimize the expectancy value of “#weeks survival”— in other words, the Expected Longevity. The meaning of that figure is easy to explain: it is the avera

Here’s a mathy post to improve your understanding of the game, with a stats breakdown that I had searched for but never found. The goal is to give some perspective on how predictable / unpredictable fantasy is, in order

Fantasy point distributions One way to visualize a position’s impact on your roster score is to look at the distributions of scores. (The below curves have been smoothed within 1 point.) It is also interesting to see the

Before this study, I was not completely convinced QB streaming was usually a good idea. Below I discuss some of the arguments and counter-arguments for streaming (vs. drafting+holding). TL;DR Of course I hope some of you

This post is about exploring how well projection models might improve the points we get from the QB position. Plus some commentary exploring how predictable/unpredictable QBs are. Some key questions were: What's differen

Analysis of the Predictive Accuracy of "Fantasy Points-Allowed" Since I've been so involved with statistical analysis of fantasy point projections, I have long wondered just how significant fantasy data (and trends) can

In extension of my "QB-Kicker Pairing" analysis, here is a look at all the fantasy positions. Why is this interesting? Especially for critical matchups, people often ask about the effects of using players from the same t

November 1st —- For discussion about week 9 streaming, join the exchange here on Reddit. I’m not getting all the signs that space is bringing you the value I hoped you’d get, so definitely indicate if I should keep it up

While making all my kicker model improvements, I have had my eye on this particular accuracy number. A correlation coefficient of 0.3 is sometimes considered an unofficial "cut-off" for what is reliably predictable. You'

Introduction Here’s some analysis that might help your thoughts on strategy, even in the off-season. The theme of this post is "How predictable/random are the different fantasy positions?" (During the 3 years 2017-2019,

The following shows how predictable/random the last years have been for "Vegas" (betting lines), in comparison to 2021. For each year, I show the correlation coefficient between lines and results: The season predictabili

Here's some perspective for you, if you feel a season is going unpredictably and want to know what’s normal. Knowing the accuracy of betting lines especially relates to all positions in fantasy, but especially D/ST, beca

Here is an illustration of how random fantasy football is. It is a high level view of the predictability of different football-related and fantasy-related variables. Kind of a summary of my research, with a good deal of

What factors of kicker performance are predictable-- and what is not? Fantasy kicker scoring is most of all linked to the production of field goals. I have made an analysis of different components, and how strongly they

The idea of focusing on this specific position pairing (QB+Kicker) was partly based on columns I had read years back (one example is here). For some time, I've been wanting to investigate this methodically, and I hope yo

Every year I see different people attempting to make a statistical model of some kind. In 2018 there were 8 of us providing D/ST rankings... and nearly all of us had a different approach. What I'm writing here is a 2- or

I've done some analysis of the D/ST scoring scheme, to investigate whether it could possibly be improved. I know that this post won't appeal to everyone, but if you're curious then read on. TL;DR - D/ST scoring can be ma

Updated Oct 1, 2022 after a comprehensive study on historical results with data back to 2010. For a while, I was not comfortable suggesting any single spread or O/U to bet on. The randomness is simply too large! However,

Randomness of Spreads: expected values vs. outcomes One of the "a-ha moments" for me was realizing how much error betting lines have, relative to results. You should pretty much expect Spreads to be wrong by 10 points ab

Randomness of O/U: Expectations vs. outcomes of game Total Totals are more random (harder to predict) than spreads: Interesting side note, that the O/U error is not centered at the mode, and there is a longer tail of ove

This is a reference for those of you who are: Wondering how much trust to put in accuracy grades (either from FantasyPros or from here on Reddit) Trying to make your own accuracy assessment of different ranking sources O

Why prepare? First of all, I don't generally recommend it any earlier than week 12 or 13 (depends on your league's habits). But the main reason for planning D/STs specifically is the need for security. D/ST projections f

The point of this post is that I've put a lot of thought into making stats more understandable for fantasy. The focus here is correlation coefficients (CCs), which I often use to describe both positional predictability a

None of these rankings would exist, if I wasn't convinced the models are as accurate as we can reasonably expect. I have previously spent a lot of time explaining 2 things that seem contradictory: All rankings are “bad”-

Explanation of Overfit (Cause of recent model updates) Some of you requested me to describe what is "overfit". So here's ...really probably... more than you really wanted to know! Anyway, I hope like 3 of you out in the

If I should describe my overall goal, it is to feel comfortable about deciding my streaming picks, without the stress of having second thoughts, and wondering if another ranking source was "guessing". I know that fantasy

I became interested in fantasy football modeling because I wanted a better understanding but found 3 things missing from many ranking sources: I felt there was room for a data-backed approach to improve prediction. I enc

Early motivations A lot of my interest in starting analytics came out of Reddit discussions. It seemed like there were a lot of theories floating around, but there was no data to support them. Here's an example referenci

A lot of people have asked what kind of background or education I have, to get into this predictive modeling and to write these analytical articles. I have a broad science background: initially trained in computer scienc

I program algorithms in Mathematica, to develop models while working very closely with the data. Updated models are then programmed into Excel for day-to-day implementation. If I were younger and trained specifically in

Most people are probably holding QBs, not streaming. However, streaming QBs can definitely be a viable fantasy strategy if: your league is small and the QB you drafted needs some filler weeks. your league-mates draft the

I am really glad about being able to publicly share most key analytical findings. I think these studies can improve how people enjoy the game. Making them free is for the greater good. But the rankings are what most peop

With D/STs, you should be prepared to stream in most leagues. D/ST is the most obvious fantasy position to stream, since the score is mostly dependent on the opposing offense—thereby affecting each D/ST’s value every new

There is some narrative that D/ST scoring is problematic, which has validity. Scores can go negative, making it the only position you might consider sitting. Scores decrease during the game, causing frustration. And scor

D/ST is where I started, due to a slew of bad picks from other rankings. I thought rankers were assuming that certain statistics were predictive, without testing them. I was especially frustrated about the inability to i

The projection charts display the key outputs from Subvertadown models, to facilitate your roster choices for streaming. Here are some answers to common questions: Timing of Week changeover: Charts are updated ASAP to th

The flex position models are meant to improve upon making lineup decisions according to “fantasy-points-allowed to this position by the opposing defense”. Instead of that weakly-predictive number, these models are more c

Good kicker projections can make it viable to stream the kicker position. And it can actually be easier to stream than D/ST, because your league-mates are probably not rostering 2 kickers (whereas rostering 2 D/STs can b

Subvertadown models are built from a special version of multivariate statistical regression, with cross-validation. That means we don’t choose our favorite defensive stats from our own idea of what should be useful. Inst

Kickers are notoriously difficult to predict, and many consider it hopeless to improve. This—combined with a perceived “lack of game action”-- has led some to advocate deleting the position. The Subvertadown view is some

Prevailing opinions about QB: Wait to draft a later-round QB, because other positions have higher replacement value early in the draft. Verdict: Generally true. Rushing QBs provide a safer floor because QB rushing yards

D/ST is one of the most predictable fantasy positions. However, that only means that other positions are less predictable. The randomness in fantasy can be overwhelming, and it’s not much different for D/ST. So here's ho

There are not usually major flaws in the top QB rankings, but I did sense the opposing defense can get overlooked. In battles between top QBs and top defenses, rankers often keep “usually safe” QB choices at the top. Is

It could be anyone interested in gaining some edge… but from experience, the most interest comes from people who appreciate knowing the scientific methodology and trusting a data-driven approach. My followers report high

Although I heavily guide the process, I don't choose what ends up into each model. Subvertadown is about a framework for developing the predictive models. For this, I test hundreds of variables for significance, and cros

Recognizing that this crazy game of Fantasy Football feels serious for some people..., I want to remind you the importance of remembering how to have fun with the game. Treating fantasy as just a way to win the pot-- or

January 2nd, 2024 [Final accuracy round-up posted here] [Season wrap-up and Week 18 suggestions posted here] For now I wanted to note that the website is entering off-season mode, with the site unlocked and free to explo

I have always said that the kicker position is where I hope to make the biggest improvement. Kickers get overlooked, so there is room to improve accuracy—which in turn makes it viable to maximize points by streaming (ins

Control: QBs give the most amount of control over their own point production, even though matchups matter more than most people think. Attitude: Don't trick yourself into thinking that QBs are that much more predictable

I originally did not expect the time intensity involved with creating and maintaining models. At first, I thought some clever tricks could find patterns and quickly “crack the code”. Unfortunately, I learned there are hu

Subvertadown is in its 5th year, and the project has always been under continuous evolution. The project became serious after realizing a first year of dabbling was enough to get above-average D/ST accuracy. For the seco

One of the deviously fun parts of developing predictive models is the feeling of defying what they said about stats in school: Correlation is not causation. With predictive modeling, we turn the idea on its head and bend

Kickers are one of the least predictable fantasy positions—with around the same level of predictability as individual WR1s. Control: Remember, kickers don't make their own destiny by just "being awesome". Their team is l

December 30, 2025 I’ll be back with more, later, including the final Accuracy Report. But before people scatter off, I wanted to say thanks for a great season! This was a special year for the Subvertadown website and Red

Leaving this up for anyone who was too busy leading up to the holidays: December 23, 2025 [2pmEST: D/STs were updated with some significant rank changes compared to morning launch.] Welcome to the final week of the fanta

December 16, 2025 If you were lucky enough to make playoffs, I hope you guys are holding up! The Subvertadown models kind of crushed it for week 15, especially up against other sources. It frankly feels kind of cringey t

2025 Hey gang! Hopefully you’ve had a chance to see my Reddit post, with analysis about pairing D/STs and opposing offensive players. As promised, here are some top options for Defenses and Kickers this week. I spent som

[UPDATE: Here’s a Reddit post for the video with J.J. Zachariason. Give it your upvote, and find the video version in the comments! ] December 8, 2025 Hey gang! No special news. Last time I reminded you about the 3rd mon

December 2, 2025 I hope everyone got a chance to look over the 3rd monthly Accuracy Report I published last time. The Accuracy Report covers the main successes and difficulties of the 2025 season: D/STs Great! I see my m

November 25, 2025 Hey everyone, I hope you’re all ready to wind down a bit and enjoy the holidays! Sadly, the other thing winding down is… the fantasy season. The charity drive continues, though, and so far we have raise

November 28, 2025 Time to reflect again on the predictability of the 2025 season: month #3 now, following up on the reports for month #1and for month #2. If you’re new to these: Examining predictive accuracy has been a l

November 18, 2025 [Note November 22, 4pmEST: Corrected a false inflation affecting all teams’ D/ST projections— You will notice a drop in numbers, but the ordering shouldn’t change much. As we passed from “mid” season to

Hey everyone! Specially posting a D/ST list off-Reddit, because the image I created doesn’t make it easy to see the order. I hope you found the graph interesting though! The Week 9 Reddit post is linked here So here are

October 28, 2025 We’re past halfway! Accuracy report Month #2 will come out after a few days. Reddit post for D/STs is up, here Last Week Week 8 was actually mostly good for predictions— Except some people experienced ve

Hey everyone! Specially posting a Kicker list off-Reddit, to more easily see the order. I hope you found the graph interesting though! The Week 9 Reddit post is linked here And by the way, the D/ST Week 9 Reddit post is

November 3, 2025 Time to reflect again on the predictability of the 2025 season: month #2 now, following up on the report for month #1. If you’re new to these: Examining predictive accuracy has been a long-standing tradi

October 21, 2025 [Kicker post is here.] Last week That was a resoundingly good week 7, as far as fantasy predictions go! Unless you chose Steelers D/ST (my #6), or Matt Gay (my #4) as your Kicker, chances are that the mo

October 13, 2025 [Kicker Post Here!] [D/ST post here] [Trade Value post here] Welcome to week 7— amazingly with more than 1/3 of the season behind us! In previous years, I’ve used a weekly front page article to direct yo

October 2, 2025 Time to reflect on the predictability of the 2025 season so far! If you’re new to these: Examining predictive accuracy has been a long-standing tradition, underpinning a key purpose of Subvertadown: To gi

Hi Reddit! This is the follow-up to my Tuesday Reddit post, for those who wanted more of these visuals, ranked by average. These are the top 16 charts are for the “Similar Historical Matches”, as of early Tuesday. (Obvio

[Update: Season wrap-up post on Reddit] December 31, 2024 That’s a wrap, folks! The website is now in off-season mode. As of Jan 5th, the website 17-week charts display the past weeks as they would have been calculated i

This year's Kicker Wall of Shame. Here was a link to a previous year's. Week 1: Koo at #1 with 4 points. Reichard at #4 with 4 points. Week 2: No true bust this week! (Moody scored 5) Week 3: A historically abominable we

December 24, 2024 Happy holidays to everyone, and good luck in the finals! In week 16, D/STs and Kickers turned out to be extremely predictable, for fantasy. Hopefully that benefited you more than your opponent! The main

December 17, 2024 Week 15 was great for accuracy, all around. In my collaboration with Keith Lott of FantasySixPack.net, his own D/ST rankings now stand at #6 for the year according to FantasyPros. You can view his full

December 10, 2024 No particular news this time. Here are a few small notes: Reddit post: Early Tuesday D/ST picks Accuracy report that was posted last week All Survivor teams won again in week 14, and Betting Lines final

[Accuracy Report Weeks 1 - 12] [D/ST Reddit post] November 25, 2024 Week 12 was very good for the streaming models, and soon I will publish another accuracy round-up. But the main news is— Happy Thanksgiving— we are agai

[Week 14 Reddit post for D/ST] [Week 14 Reddit post for Kicker] Congrats on the Charity Drive! We have donated the collected total of $750 to the Concussion Legacy Foundation. (Remember, you can still donate on your own!

Early D/ST Reddit post is here November 18, 2024 There’s increasing talk about which D/STs to grab for playoffs. A few reminders: Long-range subscribers already have the view of all forecasts, in the 17-week charts, incl

November 11, 2024 Updates Note that we have added the Playoffs columns, to the 17-week charts. This column allows you to sort each table by highest averages for the three final weeks: 15, 16, and 17. I hope you enjoy the

Reddit early-Tuesday D/ST discussion here Reddit Kicker discussion here, explaining new tool (also described here below) November 5, 2024 I’ve got good news for the website developments! First, slightly sadder news: some

October 29th, 2024 Reddit early D/ST post is here for discussion Thanks for showing your support last time! Extra post, explaining Methodology for kicker modeling Last week Week 8 demonstrated a shift— it was a week for

Note Oct 27th the betting lines were accidentally continuing “live”, during the first Sunday games, whereas normally I freeze the imports prior to kick-off. I’ve now made sure to correct / restore the betting lines table

October 15, 2024 [This week’s D/ST Reddit post here] [Last year’s year-end accuracy report was here] Time to reflect on the predictability of the 2024 season so far! If you’re new to these: Examining predictive accuracy

Oct. 13th 6am— There is an update to the betting lines, which improves the logic for bet selection, specifically in mid-season (which is different from full season logic). A number of additional recommendations have appe

(Monday 3:30pm: All week 5 projections are recorded as usual; you might notice some changes before MNF, while betting lines models get an update in preparation for week 6.) (Sunday 3:30pm: Anyone who noticed a duplicate

September 27, 2024 To bring more joy into streaming, I hope Week 3 was a true low point for the season! Every season will have a mix of down weeks among the great ones. As posted here on Reddit, week 3 was the most abysm

Sep 22 10:00amEST —Survivor pathway 3B was modified. Sep 21 7:30amEST —Early this morning, there were some erroneous fluctuations in some D/ST projections, while processing a model update. Done now. Sep 19 2:30pmEST —Not

September 10, 2024 [Reddit D/ST Post is Here] Another first week of a season— and we’re reminded of just how much we can get surprised. We plan our picks all pre-season, we feel confident in likely outcomes— And still, t

Sep 8 morning update: Future rankings are adjusted to approximate Jordan Love’s absence. Survivor paths are modified as well, and now include 6 different options instead of 3, for week 1. Sep. 3, 2024 So close to kick-of

August 2024 Welcome back to Subvertadown! It’s been a super-busy offseason: model updates and new website tools, described below. For those new, you should catch up on the last status by reading the 2023 Final Accuracy R

For reference, here were my earlier accuracy reports: last year 2022, 1st month 2023, 2nd month 2023, 3rd month 2023. TL;DR-- D/STs good, Kickers = a bad year for all rankers, QB good, Survivor meh, Betting lines prettah

December 26th, 2023 [Reddit post here for discussion] This is it! Down to the finish. Those of you who read my Christmas Day update already know: Last week was exceptionally anomalous, which is not what we wanted, in the

December 25th, 2023 Update: A special notice today, as I would like to wish Happy Holidays… And I would especially like if I could give the gift of a fantastic week 16— just as week 15 was and many others have been! Unfo

December 12th, 2023 [Reddit post for D/ST and Kicker discussion is here] For 6 weeks since week 8, we saw an extended and consistent era of predictability. It seemed like we’d had it all figured out. Now Week 14 has brou

November 28, 2023 [Reddit discussion for D/ST and Kicker is here.] Welcome back from the Thanksgiving Weekend. We’re soon close to 100 participants in the Charity Drive: $5 for a week’s access to the Long Range tier (inc

December 5th, 2023 No special updates into week 14, but below is the accuracy report I completed after week 12. Last week (week 13) went all around great for fantasy, where I especially differentiated myself in D/ST and

November 21, 2023 Welcome to week 12… Now sure how that happened, since it feels like I just publish a week 8 accuracy report! Anyway, we’re nearing the finish line, before playoffs. This is the first week you might cons

November 14th, 2023 FYI — No separate Reddit posts planned. You can now sort the ROS tables by the new “Playoffs” column! Last week D/ST was quite in line with accuracy expectations, and betting lines luckily rebounded w

November 7th, 2023 [Reddit discussion about D/ST is here.] [Reddit Consensus post for D/ST and Kicker is here] Week 9 was an amazing week for basically every projection model. It was particularly a boom week for D/ST and

October 31st, 2023 [Reddit discussion about D/ST will be postponed for this week. Happy Halloween!] An Accuracy Report for the second month will come out sometime soon! Targeting the weekend. Meanwhile, last week was a m

Hi everyone, and welcome to another accuracy round-up! If you’re new to these: Examining predictive accuracy has been a long-standing tradition, underpinning the whole purpose of Subvertadown. These reports are not— and

Oct 24th, 2023 [Reddit discussion about D/ST is here.] [Reddit discussion about Kicker is here.] NOTE Saturday, October 28th: You will notice some of the Kickers got shuffled during a minor update today (usually within h

Oct 17th, 2023 [Reddit discussion about D/ST is here.] [Reddit discussion about the unusual Kicker predictability.] Week 6 was overall very good for defense predictability and D/ST scoring. And two weeks in a row have be

Oct 9th, 2023 [Reddit discussion about D/ST is here.] [Reddit discussion about Kickers is here.] Week 6th brings such mixed feelings. On the one hand, it always feels like we’ve figured out the teams. In fact, it appears

October 3rd, 2023 [10:45EST — Slight shuffle due to an update; but tried to fix the Thursday values as they were.] Reddit post for D/ST discussion Four weeks have passed. The season always feels more officially in full s

[Saturday note: The model is getting updated as we transition from “early season” into some effect of “mid-season”. You will notice some shifting of projections. I don’t expect the order of things will change much.] Redd

Week 3 Cautious Hope Reddit post for D/ST Consensus based on Pick 6×6 game Reddit post for D/ST discussion Reddit post for Kicker discussion Looking at week 2: Predictability increased all around, from week 1 to week 2,

Week 2 So far so good Reddit post for D/ST discussion Reddit post for Kicker discussion Offensive players underscored in week 1; top QBs faltered. But at least your Defenses probably got points, and my top-8 Kickers had

September 2, 2023 Are you ready for this? Week 1 has arrived, and I want to make sure everyone knows all the features from this website. Therefore, please review the first 2 minutes of the video I’ve put together: Now, a

Updated August 31: The new models are now active! I have made a new improvement this year, which is that all 40 models have been re-calibrated to the first weeks of the season. That means that, instead of applying trends

January 15th, 2022 A reminder that the website is in off-season mode: unlocked and free to explore. As always in the off-season, all projections now represent how the models would predict things now, “as if those games w

December 27th, 2022 This is it, the final week! Before everyone disappears, I want to thank you for joining this first year at the website. It was really an adventure, and in the end I think it worked close to how it was

January 6th, 2022 Here’s a post analyzing how 2022 NFL scoring was different and impacted fantasy And find below a written list of K and D/ST streaming candidates for week 18. January 4th, 2022 For now I wanted to note t

December 20th, 2022 Welcome to the final stretch! Here’s the community waivers discussion. I only have 2 items of note for Week 16: There seems to be a comfortable level of acceptable options this week— however fewer for

December 13th, 2022 The post for community discussion is here. Go share your take! Charitable Donation Update More than 100 additional subscribers (111) joined the "1 week charity" campaign. In total, $2,652.00 was donat

December 4th Third monthly Accuracy Report posted here. It will be also up on the website, soon. November 29th Community waivers discussion here. Well done, to all who signed up for the “Playoffs View for Charity” or mon

Dec 6th: Click here for the week 14 community discussion December 4th, 2022 Welcome to my 3rd monthly "accuracy review" for 2022. The same post appears here. As always to start, here's the chart of all positions, with so

November 26th FYI, we have created a new 1-week tier for $5, solely for donating the charity “Concussion Legacy Foundation.” The “Playoffs View for Charity” grants access to all Long Range content, for your playoffs plan

November 19th Here is a new analysis about how significant it is when a kicker scores multiple weeks in a row with 10+ fantasy points! November 15th, 2022 Here is the Reddit post for community discussion Kicker-geddon wa

November 12, 2022 A minor correction made on the new kicker model: Maher moved lower for this week. (Still good ROS.) November 11, 2022 Update: Kicker discussion located here! Don’t miss the analysis and description of t

October 18, 2022 Items Worth Noting: Don’t miss the Reddit forum discussion about D/ST waiver picks. Includes remarks on how tough week 6 was. Only 2 byes next week. The current week is what you’ve been preparing for. Ne

October 11, 2022 Items worth noting: I’m aware the betting lines give much less recs this week than usual. It seems like my models and Vegas agree more often this year than in the past. The betting lines display format w

Welcome to my first "accuracy review" for 2022! The content is going to be a bit different from now on, so let me explain: I'll report (monthly now) the overview of how all my OWN models are performing, as I did before.

September 24, 2022 A couple short updates. First is that the QB model now has its update! So it is based on more years of data. I don’t stop working! Next will come some improvements to betting lines, but it may not be i

Update September 14, 11:30 EST Note you can toggle which default D/ST scores display (“ESPN/Yahoo”) when you visit this website in the future. Just choose your preferred option at the bottom of the webpage! I want to hig

September 5th, 2022 Welcome If you’re new and missed the article about what this whole website is about, read here. For everyone else, welcome back, and at long last welcome to the start of week 1! There are a few extra

Welcome Finally, I can reveal the Subvertadown Project’s biggest UI enhancement yet: all my content in a new shiny website! I encourage all of you to browse around and explore the features, while it’s in full-access demo

Here we go streamers! Let's look back at our season's heroes. As opposed to evaluating top holds (posted elsewhere), players who were best for streaming are not defined by consistent high scoring. Two reasons for preferr

Cheering up the off-season void with a little entertainment of analysis. As a supplement to 2021's best streamers, let’s first review 2021's best performers. Who would have been best to hold, now that we have the benefit