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Week 6 is here - 2022

Nick Folk Chicago Bears wide receiver Darnell Mooney (11) catches the ball with one hand against Minnesota Vikings cornerback Chandon Sullivan (39) during the first half of an NFL football game Sunday, Oct. 9, 2022 in Minneapolis. (AP Photo/Stacy Bengs)

October 11, 2022

Items worth noting:

  • I’m aware the betting lines give much less recs this week than usual. It seems like my models and Vegas agree more often this year than in the past.

  • The betting lines display format will soon get an update. (1) I will make it more explicit about how much to spare (not wager). (2) There will be limited options for scaling the target bankroll amount.

  • We’re in Bye season! Keep an eye on the future schedule.

Week 5 comments:

  • It was the first significant loss on betting lines (50%), despite a good start on the first couple games of the week. This is normal / expected— read the last article if you haven’t, and brace for week 6! Still, I blame Taysom. But really, the downs are part of the… ups and downs.

  • All other models showed high predictivity, excepting RB (and kicker). QB had very high predictivity.

Items not worth noting but anyway…

  • Most of my time went into overhauling the back-end… With my model uploaded on servers, it works well for a couple weeks but then gets too slow after week 4. Now I can more quickly make changes and check the results instead of waiting minutes for the change.

  • The rest of my time will go into integrating new variables to the models, which I never got the chance to complete in the off-season. Especially for Kicker and the game-score models. Subvertadown is constant evolution, and thanks for supporting that!

Have a good week.