By Subvertadown
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Current SeasonSeptember 10, 2024
Another first week of a season— and we’re reminded of just how much we can get surprised.
We plan our picks all pre-season, we feel confident in likely outcomes— And still, the Bengals can fall to the Pats, despite all the expectations around an 8 point spread.
In terms predictivity for the week— which some might call “model accuracy”— it was a completely average week, for basically every position (for every model I run).
The main disappointments were around the Bengals: (1) Our long foreseen plans for their D/ST fell apart, (2) I had their kicker at #2 higher than other analysts, and (3) they ruined the first of 3 the Survivor pathways. (That Survivor pathway will now continue with the week 1 back-up that was designated as 1B: the Lions.)
Pros and cons at the kicker position: Pro: The sum of my top 8 kicker scores did manage to beat other sources. Con: My kickers had a much wider variance in score! While I managed to include both Grupe and Moody with their fantastic 20-something scores— which other rankers did not— my personal Kicker accuracy really took a hit because of Koo and Reichard. The Falcons just did not support Koo’s scoring chances as hoped; and the opposite was true of the Vikings, who moved better than expected and left Reichard without any FGs.
The betting lines measured in at a lucky +15%, and remember not to expect that in general.
Heading into week 2, it would actually be nice to see a repeat of week 1’s predictability level— with an extra nudge for kickers!
/Subvertadown
A reminder of “how to use the website”, demonstrated by the Free stuff:
10:35EST —Fixed errors that caused QB mix-ups; all good now.
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