September 10, 2024

[Reddit D/ST Post is Here]

Another first week of a season— and we’re reminded of just how much we can get surprised.

We plan our picks all pre-season, we feel confident in likely outcomes— And still, the Bengals can fall to the Pats, despite all the expectations around an 8 point spread.

In terms predictivity for the week— which some might call “model accuracy”— it was a completely average week, for basically every position (for every model I run).

The main disappointments were around the Bengals: (1) Our long foreseen plans for their D/ST fell apart, (2) I had their kicker at #2 higher than other analysts, and (3) they ruined the first of 3 the Survivor pathways. (That Survivor pathway will now continue with the week 1 back-up that was designated as 1B: the Lions.)

Pros and cons at the kicker position: Pro: The sum of my top 8 kicker scores did manage to beat other sources. Con: My kickers had a much wider variance in score! While I managed to include both Grupe and Moody with their fantastic 20-something scores— which other rankers did not— my personal Kicker accuracy really took a hit because of Koo and Reichard. The Falcons just did not support Koo’s scoring chances as hoped; and the opposite was true of the Vikings, who moved better than expected and left Reichard without any FGs.

The betting lines measured in at a lucky +15%, and remember not to expect that in general.

Heading into week 2, it would actually be nice to see a repeat of week 1’s predictability level— with an extra nudge for kickers!

/Subvertadown

A reminder of “how to use the website”, demonstrated by the Free stuff:

10:35EST —Fixed errors that caused QB mix-ups; all good now.