Fantasy Football Articles & Model Guides

Hold-My-BeerSheets are fantasy draft cheat-sheets for people who want: precise underlying numbers that get summarized in a very clean format. (For quick-n-easy instructions to generate them, use this linked article.) Peo

TapThatDraft is for those who want to customize a Minimalist draft cheat sheet, that still shows all the most important information, while keeping the robust math out of sight. You want a simple, trusty cheat-sheet. On p

Summary / TL;DR For snake drafts, typical “Value-over-baseline” metrics alone are deficient for addressing the effect that positional scarcity has on maximizing points. To address the risks of missed opportunity in snake

2018 D/ST: 1 2 3 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 playoffs 11 playoffs 12 13 14 15 16 17 Kicker: 1 2 2 3 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 ROS 12 13 14+ QB: 16 2019 D/ST: 0 1 1 2 2 2 3 3 3 4 4 5 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 11 12 13 14 14 15 16 Kicker: 0 1

Subvertadown uses a scientific approach to provide fantasy football players with forecasts and strategic insights. Subvertadown is especially geared towards players who appreciate: High transparency: openness about the m

None of these rankings would exist, if I wasn't convinced the models are as accurate as we can reasonably expect. I have previously spent a lot of time explaining 2 things that seem contradictory: All rankings are “bad”-

If I should describe my overall goal, it is to feel comfortable about deciding my streaming picks, without the stress of having second thoughts, and wondering if another ranking source was "guessing". I know that fantasy

I became interested in fantasy football modeling because I wanted a better understanding but found 3 things missing from many ranking sources: I felt there was room for a data-backed approach to improve prediction. I enc

Early motivations A lot of my interest in starting analytics came out of Reddit discussions. It seemed like there were a lot of theories floating around, but there was no data to support them. Here's an example referenci

A lot of people have asked what kind of background or education I have, to get into this predictive modeling and to write these analytical articles. I have a broad science background: initially trained in computer scienc

I program algorithms in Mathematica, to develop models while working very closely with the data. Updated models are then programmed into Excel for day-to-day implementation. If I were younger and trained specifically in

I am really glad about being able to publicly share most key analytical findings. I think these studies can improve how people enjoy the game. Making them free is for the greater good. But the rankings are what most peop

It could be anyone interested in gaining some edge… but from experience, the most interest comes from people who appreciate knowing the scientific methodology and trusting a data-driven approach. My followers report high

I originally did not expect the time intensity involved with creating and maintaining models. At first, I thought some clever tricks could find patterns and quickly “crack the code”. Unfortunately, I learned there are hu

Subvertadown is in its 5th year, and the project has always been under continuous evolution. The project became serious after realizing a first year of dabbling was enough to get above-average D/ST accuracy. For the seco

Welcome Finally, I can reveal the Subvertadown Project’s biggest UI enhancement yet: all my content in a new shiny website! I encourage all of you to browse around and explore the features, while it’s in full-access demo