Fantasy Football Articles & Model Guides

January 7, 2026 [TL;DR— This was overall a great season for Subvertadown, maybe the best ever. Betting lines returned overall positive ROI, and Survivor failures were fewer than normal. The D/ST models came out clear #1

Here’s a mathy post to improve your understanding of the game, with a stats breakdown that I had searched for but never found. The goal is to give some perspective on how predictable / unpredictable fantasy is, in order

Analysis of the Predictive Accuracy of "Fantasy Points-Allowed" Since I've been so involved with statistical analysis of fantasy point projections, I have long wondered just how significant fantasy data (and trends) can

November 1st —- For discussion about week 9 streaming, join the exchange here on Reddit. I’m not getting all the signs that space is bringing you the value I hoped you’d get, so definitely indicate if I should keep it up

While making all my kicker model improvements, I have had my eye on this particular accuracy number. A correlation coefficient of 0.3 is sometimes considered an unofficial "cut-off" for what is reliably predictable. You'

Introduction Here’s some analysis that might help your thoughts on strategy, even in the off-season. The theme of this post is "How predictable/random are the different fantasy positions?" (During the 3 years 2017-2019,

The following shows how predictable/random the last years have been for "Vegas" (betting lines), in comparison to 2021. For each year, I show the correlation coefficient between lines and results: The season predictabili

This is a reference for those of you who are: Wondering how much trust to put in accuracy grades (either from FantasyPros or from here on Reddit) Trying to make your own accuracy assessment of different ranking sources O

The point of this post is that I've put a lot of thought into making stats more understandable for fantasy. The focus here is correlation coefficients (CCs), which I often use to describe both positional predictability a

None of these rankings would exist, if I wasn't convinced the models are as accurate as we can reasonably expect. I have previously spent a lot of time explaining 2 things that seem contradictory: All rankings are “bad”-

November 28, 2025 Time to reflect again on the predictability of the 2025 season: month #3 now, following up on the reports for month #1and for month #2. If you’re new to these: Examining predictive accuracy has been a l

November 3, 2025 Time to reflect again on the predictability of the 2025 season: month #2 now, following up on the report for month #1. If you’re new to these: Examining predictive accuracy has been a long-standing tradi

October 2, 2025 Time to reflect on the predictability of the 2025 season so far! If you’re new to these: Examining predictive accuracy has been a long-standing tradition, underpinning a key purpose of Subvertadown: To gi

[Week 14 Reddit post for D/ST] [Week 14 Reddit post for Kicker] Congrats on the Charity Drive! We have donated the collected total of $750 to the Concussion Legacy Foundation. (Remember, you can still donate on your own!

October 15, 2024 [This week’s D/ST Reddit post here] [Last year’s year-end accuracy report was here] Time to reflect on the predictability of the 2024 season so far! If you’re new to these: Examining predictive accuracy

For reference, here were my earlier accuracy reports: last year 2022, 1st month 2023, 2nd month 2023, 3rd month 2023. TL;DR-- D/STs good, Kickers = a bad year for all rankers, QB good, Survivor meh, Betting lines prettah

December 5th, 2023 No special updates into week 14, but below is the accuracy report I completed after week 12. Last week (week 13) went all around great for fantasy, where I especially differentiated myself in D/ST and

Hi everyone, and welcome to another accuracy round-up! If you’re new to these: Examining predictive accuracy has been a long-standing tradition, underpinning the whole purpose of Subvertadown. These reports are not— and

January 15th, 2022 A reminder that the website is in off-season mode: unlocked and free to explore. As always in the off-season, all projections now represent how the models would predict things now, “as if those games w

Dec 6th: Click here for the week 14 community discussion December 4th, 2022 Welcome to my 3rd monthly "accuracy review" for 2022. The same post appears here. As always to start, here's the chart of all positions, with so

November 19th Here is a new analysis about how significant it is when a kicker scores multiple weeks in a row with 10+ fantasy points! November 15th, 2022 Here is the Reddit post for community discussion Kicker-geddon wa

Welcome to my first "accuracy review" for 2022! The content is going to be a bit different from now on, so let me explain: I'll report (monthly now) the overview of how all my OWN models are performing, as I did before.