Fantasy Football Articles & Model Guides

This article is a natural follow-up to my discussion about Skill-Luck Ratio for each position (and Correlation Coefficients). Strength in Numbers: aggregate error All the above discussion treats fantasy positions as indi

It's not just fantasy results that are random-- Real world football is random. The rate of upsets is 35% compared to consensus predictions! Go with your gut and narrative you like in the end; rankings are a statistical g

October 1st, 2022 I have been so eager to make this analysis since January! It has just taken this long to get everything in place-- first the models, then the simulation programming, and now the communication. I hope yo

Here’s a mathy post to improve your understanding of the game, with a stats breakdown that I had searched for but never found. The goal is to give some perspective on how predictable / unpredictable fantasy is, in order

Fantasy point distributions One way to visualize a position’s impact on your roster score is to look at the distributions of scores. (The below curves have been smoothed within 1 point.) It is also interesting to see the

This post is about exploring how well projection models might improve the points we get from the QB position. Plus some commentary exploring how predictable/unpredictable QBs are. Some key questions were: What's differen

Analysis of the Predictive Accuracy of "Fantasy Points-Allowed" Since I've been so involved with statistical analysis of fantasy point projections, I have long wondered just how significant fantasy data (and trends) can

While making all my kicker model improvements, I have had my eye on this particular accuracy number. A correlation coefficient of 0.3 is sometimes considered an unofficial "cut-off" for what is reliably predictable. You'

Introduction Here’s some analysis that might help your thoughts on strategy, even in the off-season. The theme of this post is "How predictable/random are the different fantasy positions?" (During the 3 years 2017-2019,

The following shows how predictable/random the last years have been for "Vegas" (betting lines), in comparison to 2021. For each year, I show the correlation coefficient between lines and results: The season predictabili

Here's some perspective for you, if you feel a season is going unpredictably and want to know what’s normal. Knowing the accuracy of betting lines especially relates to all positions in fantasy, but especially D/ST, beca

Here is an illustration of how random fantasy football is. It is a high level view of the predictability of different football-related and fantasy-related variables. Kind of a summary of my research, with a good deal of

What factors of kicker performance are predictable-- and what is not? Fantasy kicker scoring is most of all linked to the production of field goals. I have made an analysis of different components, and how strongly they

The idea of focusing on this specific position pairing (QB+Kicker) was partly based on columns I had read years back (one example is here). For some time, I've been wanting to investigate this methodically, and I hope yo

I've done some analysis of the D/ST scoring scheme, to investigate whether it could possibly be improved. I know that this post won't appeal to everyone, but if you're curious then read on. TL;DR - D/ST scoring can be ma

There is some narrative that D/ST scoring is problematic, which has validity. Scores can go negative, making it the only position you might consider sitting. Scores decrease during the game, causing frustration. And scor

Kickers are notoriously difficult to predict, and many consider it hopeless to improve. This—combined with a perceived “lack of game action”-- has led some to advocate deleting the position. The Subvertadown view is some

D/ST is one of the most predictable fantasy positions. However, that only means that other positions are less predictable. The randomness in fantasy can be overwhelming, and it’s not much different for D/ST. So here's ho

Recognizing that this crazy game of Fantasy Football feels serious for some people..., I want to remind you the importance of remembering how to have fun with the game. Treating fantasy as just a way to win the pot-- or

Kickers are one of the least predictable fantasy positions—with around the same level of predictability as individual WR1s. Control: Remember, kickers don't make their own destiny by just "being awesome". Their team is l

October 15, 2024 [This week’s D/ST Reddit post here] [Last year’s year-end accuracy report was here] Time to reflect on the predictability of the 2024 season so far! If you’re new to these: Examining predictive accuracy

Sep 22 10:00amEST —Survivor pathway 3B was modified. Sep 21 7:30amEST —Early this morning, there were some erroneous fluctuations in some D/ST projections, while processing a model update. Done now. Sep 19 2:30pmEST —Not

For reference, here were my earlier accuracy reports: last year 2022, 1st month 2023, 2nd month 2023, 3rd month 2023. TL;DR-- D/STs good, Kickers = a bad year for all rankers, QB good, Survivor meh, Betting lines prettah

Hi everyone, and welcome to another accuracy round-up! If you’re new to these: Examining predictive accuracy has been a long-standing tradition, underpinning the whole purpose of Subvertadown. These reports are not— and