November 28, 2025

Time to reflect again on the predictability of the 2025 season: month #3 now, following up on the reports for month #1and for month #2.

If you’re new to these: Examining predictive accuracy has been a long-standing tradition, underpinning a key purpose of Subvertadown: To give us a grounding in how “rational” things have been. We want to know "Was this season more or less predictable than normal?"

Compared to Other Seasons

So as usual, here’s a look at how each individual model is doing, compared to other seasons.

This does not tell "how good the models are". It only tells us how predictable the current season is, compared to the historical norm.

I’d earlier noted that weeks 5-8 averaged lower accuracies for TE and Kicker. Happily, for weeks 9-12, every positions except QB was close to or above the normal level.

So the third month was stellar, which made a welcome comeback from the first half of the season. When things are more predictable, strategizing pays off better.

Comparative Accuracy Assessment

Reminder / for newbies: I’m not trying — and don’t expect to be— “#1”. That’s plain unrealistic to expect that all the time, against very competent expert analysts I track. My goal is rather to check that the models are still performing at a similar level to others, specifically sources that have been consistently good for at least a few years. Many sources are great one year but then poor the next. My chosen experts are good in a more consistent way. We naturally trade places at the top, year to year. Knowing that the models perform at least at a "similarly" to top sources lends confidence and gives reason to trust forecasting, when we extrapolate models to future weeks.

Defensive Maneuvers

During weeks 9-12, the Subvertadown D/ST models have been performing better than the alternative sources. However, predictability has been surprisingly lower than the first month. While you shouldn’t always expect it, my models stand at a clear #1 on the season, by any measurement of accuracy.  

The only serious slip was in week 9, and it affected all rankers: the D/ST ranking lists were no better than a coin flip that week. It was a week of underdogs winning matchups.

Even better— but I’m not even showing it here— the ESPN model is doing exceptionally well. In fact, it turns out you’d be even better off following the ESPN rankings this year, even if your league is in another scoring setting.

Here’s the Kicker

Kicker predictability rebounded significantly, during weeks 7 - 12.

Thank goodness.

Recall, due to four weeks 3, 4, 5, and 6. the year 2025 was behaving like the worst year we’ve seen for predicting kickers, since the terrible low-point of 2022!

During weeks 9-12, Predictability has been above average, and the Subvertadown model has finally proven itself in that period, above all sources compared.

Predictability has been so good for 6 consecutive weeks, it’s hard to believe the level of frustration it caused me earlier.

My only takeaway is to look more closely at modeling the early part of the season, when team kicking habits haven’t settled.

Two Cents for a Quarterback

It doesn’t feel premature to take a victory lap with this particular model. My QB model boomed to start the season, and it’s more than kept up. For weeks 9 - 12, the accuracy has sustained above alternative sources.

I wonder— and I really hope— that some people have felt some effects from it.

Overall, it confirms what I usually see: that the methodology seems to suit QB well. I still don’t see major needs for correction.

Survivor

The results have remained even better than normal.

We’d earlier finished week 8 with a total of 4 losses out of 24 games in the 3 pathways— a 17% loss rate is already good.

In the third month, there were again 3 more losses, one in each pathway. They were:

• Pathway 1: Panthers in week 10 (replaced by the Seahawks backup)

• Pathway 2: Packers in week 9 (replaced by the backup)

• Pathway 3: Bills in week 10 (replaced by the Broncos backup)

That means week 12 finishes with 7 total losses out of 36 games in the 3 pathways, an almost 20% loss rate for the season, which is lower than normal.

Betting Lines

The ROI is above target for the season, and still very close to target even if you exclude week 1.

Our baseline expectations should normally be to lose about -60% of the weekly pot, by this time (after 12 weeks). So, if you routinely bet $100 per week, then the sum of your 12 weeks of losses would be $60.

That means, a normal “coin flip” betting process would lose us about -5% per week, from the target weekly bet amount. Flipping coins pays the bookkeeper. Yes, that’s if we were just monkeys shooting darts.

During weeks 9 - 12, we attained a net gain. It started poorly in week 9, but more than rebounded in week 11.

Some people asked for percentage of wins, which I don’t count, but it’s above 60% for the season.

FYI, my last report had one small error, where I listed a Ravens spread as a loss, but it was actually a win.

Here is the list of bets recommended weeks 9-12. For simplicity, I’ve combined added bet increases to opening bets, according to the table display for live changes:

/Subvertadown