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2023 Week 3

Nick Folk ARLINGTON, TX - SEPTEMBER 17: Dallas Cowboys safety Jayron Kearse (1) comes up with an interception and looks for running room during the game between the Dallas Cowboys and the New York Jets on September 17, 2023 at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Matthew Pearce/Icon Sportswire)

Week 3 Cautious Hope

Reddit post for D/ST Consensus based on Pick 6×6 game

Reddit post for D/ST discussion

Reddit post for Kicker discussion

Looking at week 2: Predictability increased all around, from week 1 to week 2, to about the level we should normally expect (2022 was different).

There was more variation in D/ST scoring. A positive (not negative) kicker correlation. The QB model seems very much back on track.

Last year, I’d given a prescient warning that we appeared in for an unpredictable 2022. But now in 2023, I think we’re looking at a much more normal year! Fingers crossed.

My models have also been accurate with game scores (line betting), but I want to sound a warning: Do not expect the betting lines to return with certainty! The first two weeks returned 24%, which is fantastic, but that in no way should be viewed as a reason to get extra confident. There are usually week-to-week swings in returns, and it’s impossible to say when a loss will come.

Week 3 outlook: The options are great for D/ST this week. The kickers list looks more “normal”. No surprises at QB. I’m expecting a very predictable week for streaming. Betting lines could possibly struggle, since Vegas is also expecting more certainty due to matchups. We’ll just have to wait and see.


For a couple more weeks, I will continue to keep this video about membership benefits, for new-comers: