Week 3 Cautious Hope

Reddit post for D/ST Consensus based on Pick 6×6 game

Reddit post for D/ST discussion

Reddit post for Kicker discussion

Looking at week 2: Predictability increased all around, from week 1 to week 2, to about the level we should normally expect (2022 was different).

There was more variation in D/ST scoring. A positive (not negative) kicker correlation. The QB model seems very much back on track.

Last year, I’d given a prescient warning that we appeared in for an unpredictable 2022. But now in 2023, I think we’re looking at a much more normal year! Fingers crossed.

My models have also been accurate with game scores (line betting), but I want to sound a warning: Do not expect the betting lines to return with certainty! The first two weeks returned 24%, which is fantastic, but that in no way should be viewed as a reason to get extra confident. There are usually week-to-week swings in returns, and it’s impossible to say when a loss will come.

Week 3 outlook: The options are great for D/ST this week. The kickers list looks more “normal”. No surprises at QB. I’m expecting a very predictable week for streaming. Betting lines could possibly struggle, since Vegas is also expecting more certainty due to matchups. We’ll just have to wait and see.

/Subvertadown

For a couple more weeks, I will continue to keep this video about membership benefits, for new-comers: