It’s probably not obvious to you, but I really got myself into a fix— How easy it would be to recommend all bets only at Closing!

Opening lines cause trouble because the models and lines change— simultaneously— during the week.

Injuries happen. Roster changes happen. Even weather happens.

Sometimes early bets should be sold back. Sometimes early bets should be reversed entirely, where you then bet on the opposite line.

The updated Opening Lines table is meant to tell you how to deal with these situations.

My goal was to bring it into full alignment with how I treat the accuracy reports, from when I record Tuesday output.

Here’s the procedure I recommend for the Opening lines:

• If you don’t want to bet early (Tuesday / “Open”), that’s fine! The tables allow for that. You can always just use the “Current” lines, listed to the far right.

• If you do want to wager on Opening lines, then start the week with the given amounts. Usually the table is live by noon, and there will be no more tweaks after 6pm EST. The opening recommendations get “frozen” for the week.

• Make adjustments before game times. The table has a special TNF reminder for Thursdays, so you don’t forget before Sunday.

• Update: Selling back. The “Update” column for Opening lines will not signal anything if the advice is to “Hold” the original bet. However, sometimes the column will display “$0”— which means the recommendation is to Sell Back that original bet.

• Increasing bet amounts. It’s also possible that the “Current Bet” will end the week at a higher amount than the initial Opening bet. In that case, the recommendation is to “top off”, i.e. wager an additional amount, above your opening line amount, up to the level of the Current bet. So if the original bet was $100, and the Current line is $500, then you would wager an additional $400.

• Sometimes the Current bet will be $0. It’s your judgement call, but the $0 doesn’t mean you should sell back the original bet. Most likely, lines have changed and the new lines are unfavorable while the old line is still acceptable.

• Sometimes the bet will reverse, between Tuesday and Closing. Usually that will mean to sell back the original bet and then place a bet on the updated reverse line. Often, the reverse line will be too small an amount, and the bet will be rounded down to $0. That simply means you shouldn’t make any bet.

• Sometimes the original and the reverse bet could co-exist. A rare circumstance, but you could see both bets simultaneously. For example, the original bet could be SF+4.5, but then significant injury news brings the bet to IND+4.5. Then you might have two competing bets, and hope that you win both, by a game that ends with a tight win margin.

Meanwhile, the Close bets operate as normal— which is to say very simply!

I hope this makes it all clearer. For any inquiries, you can always use the Reddit post (linked at the bottom of every Subvertadown webpage).

Good luck— Really!!

/Subvertadown