December 25th, 2023

Update: A special notice today, as I would like to wish Happy Holidays… And I would especially like if I could give the gift of a fantastic week 16— just as week 15 was and many others have been! Unfortunately, although we still await 3 games later today, it’s already clear that week 16 has been much less predictable than most other weeks. That’s such a pity, because this is maybe the week we most plan for in advance— stashing good plays, for weeks in advance.

The betting lines from sportsbooks (“Vegas”) have so far had their worst week of accuracy, this season. While correlation coefficients (implied scores) have averaged a great 0.39 before now, we now see this week reach a low of 0.09. (The remaining games won’t change that too much.) And as always, the betting line accuracy also had consequences for fantasy sports.

Looking across the rankers I track, QB is on track for its 2nd worst week of the season (week 14 was worse for them/us). And D/ST accuracy (for all analysts) is on track for 3rd least predictable week of the season (weeks 7 and 14 were worse). But most of all— and worst for my historical point of pride— it turned out to be a shocking week of “Kicker-geddon”. Half of the best options really busted. I care a lot about week 16 and I care a lot about getting the kickers right. But sometimes sports-betting just feels like it’s conspiring against you. Let’s just take a moment to acknowledge the fates of top-8 kickers.

• Elliott we’re still waiting on. Fingers crossed. And Bass and Badgley were fine enough, though underwhelming... fairly normal outcomes.

• Koo at #2 was the sole bright light of the week. I hope a lot of people jumped on that.

But the other half of top kickers were more tragic, for semifinalists trying to stream:

• Hopkins, at my #1, must have the strangest story of all. Out of the game? Injured from trying to tackle an RB?

• Gay: It wasn’t his recent injury in the end… it was Colts somehow amassing their lowest score of this season.

• McManus: I was looking forward to this one— the offense should have set him up much better. Remember, the Jaguars were supposed to win— they were not supposed to fall behind 0-30 to the Buccaneers. But after he missed from 50+, he wasn’t even given a chance for PATs. That negative point stung.

• Fairbairn: I know that some expressed seeing a risk here, with Stroud not starting. But I agreed with the consensus of bettors that (based on history) Keenum should have been a safe veteran, especially against an injured D-line— and maybe he should have even boosted Fairbairn’s opportunities. But the Texans fell too far behind.

I hope most of you weathered the storm. Your D/STs should have been “ok”— especially if you stand back and realize that it’s the lowest-scoring week for D/STs on average (which means all D/STs were lukewarm— your opponent also probably scored low there). Only Packers and Bengals really busted.

This remains the hardest year for Kicker’s I’ve ever seen, and it deserves a closer look in the offseason. In the meantime, remember to enjoy your holidays, regardless of your outcome. This silly game of fake points should never take away from the things that are real.

/Subvertadown

December 19th, 2023

Reddit post for discussion

The final stretch!

I hope your Week 15 went fantastic.

At least by the Subvertadown models, it should have been a great week for streaming, to help push into semi-finals.

The D/ST rankings were even more accurate than they’ve been all season. They even outpaced other sources, for the week.

The QB rankings also succeeded where others didn’t, pushing Prescott, Howell, and Fields lower than others.

Only the Kicker model was just average. But you should have felt fine with most top picks, unless you picked Boswell.

The predictability was a welcome rebound coming off a week 14 that was a low-point.

Always temper expectations, but we’re all hoping Week 16 continues just like 15.

Good luck.

/Subvertadown