November 11, 2024

Updates

• Note that we have added the Playoffs columns, to the 17-week charts.

  • This column allows you to sort each table by highest averages for the three final weeks: 15, 16, and 17.

• I hope you enjoy the use of the new Kicker Opportunity Curves, described last week, after we launched the new tool.

  • I’ll appreciate feedback, because this tool has been a vision of mine, for a while, and I want it to add to your experience.

Quick Accuracy Check-in

At the moment, there’s a lot going well!— despite one thing going very poorly, which I’ll get too.

Without detail (less than my week 6 accuracy report), I can say:

• This year’s updated Kicker model makes me as glad as I hoped, in how is at bringing higher scoring kickers nearer to the top. Using the FantasyPros accuracy gap rating, it’s #1 for the season, after a comeback from week 1’s rough start.

  • However, there’s still the lingering “Curse of the #1 kicker”. (It’s been going on most of the season, and this time it was Koo.)

• The QB model is also surprising me with how well it does.

  • Except for an awful week 1, the QB model somehow been equal or better than amazing QB rankers that I love.

  • By some luck, week 10 went surprisingly better than most rankers.

• D/ST is going good enough for my expectations— at #4, out of 6 amazing sources I track.

  • What I’ve always cared about is sufficient accuracy to give faith in future week forecasts. Predicability is equal or better than usual, this year, which supports successful streaming.

So— In general, things seem to be working!

However, all that said… I wanted to acknowledge the one major exception, which is the non-fantasy bit:

Betting Lines.

The Betting Lines are very far from the net success we saw in 2023. The betting suggestions have simply taken too many big hits, this season. I still insist that anything worse than -10% is just randomness, but it’s crushing for me to admit that they would have performed well “if turned upside down”. Especially on a personal note, these are the models I devoted most time to “improve” in the off-season, hundreds of hours. I struggle to explain it, and moreover I struggle to rationalize it: because even randomly-selected wagers would be VERY unlikely to miss so frequently! It just doesn’t make sense. But I want you to know I’m very well aware, and I’m concerned enough to investigate.

Currently, I’m spending time going over the Spread models with a fine-toothed comb. It was a week for underdogs, when my models like the favorites better. Everything seems in order, so far: I can see that Yes, the models really did have supporting data, to think (1) the Chiefs would cover against the Broncos, and (2) the Ravens cover against the Bengals, and (3) the Falcons cover the Saints (Koo’s missed FGs…), and (4) 49ers over Buccaneers. And I can see that, Yes, the data in the models really does support that (5) the Jets would have scored more against the Cardinals to hit the Over— and (6) same with the Over for Lions against the Texans. These 6 were the biggest bets of Week 10. And they all turned out to go the wrong way. For a single week, it represents an extraordinary -40% loss. That would actually be okay, if we also saw some comeback weeks with +40% gains (which would be random luck), but we haven’t seen them.

While I continue analyzing for improvement areas, Betting Line subscribers should not forget the overview I gave in week 2, explaining the philosophy— expectations around how bad it can theoretically go, and how to consider saved amounts each week (as dependent on the likely risk). Based on this season’s experience, I think that I have to acknowledge a change in the recommended wager-savings ratio, from 1:2 to 1:2.5.

All that said, week 10 is historically a low point in the season, for predictability. I hope week 11 brings hope for continuing the current party with Kickers, and good luck with streaming in general.

Good luck,

/Subvertadown