Reddit early-Tuesday D/ST discussion here

Reddit Kicker discussion here, explaining new tool (also described here below)

November 5, 2024

I’ve got good news for the website developments!

First, slightly sadder news: some free content will soon become locked, now that we are past mid-season.

Background is lower-than-expected growth, but also my employment status! (posted here too)

This late in the season, everyone should’ve had time to figure out if they like this stuff or not. Consider to try out the $7.50-per-year subscription— if you’ve enjoyed the content here.

But the good news is: The site continues to improve with features!

For me, a big one is finally here. Personally, I’ve been looking forward to creating this for a long time:

Visualization of Kicker Opportunities by Yard Line

You can now view a graphic, for all kickers, showing how many more times they are likely to kick — for every given distance— compared to the “average kicker situation”.

This works by combining multiple sophisticated models together, to represent the current kicker and matchup situation. (More explanation here.)

Here is an example of a current top kicker:

In this example, Bass is expected to have fewer short kicking opportunities— compared to the "average” number of short kicks. You can see this because the curve goes negative (and colorless) in the FG20 region, before the end-zone. Another thing the Bills are expected to do less than other teams? Punt. Between the 45- and 55- yard line, the Bills are expected to make “0.6” fewer punts than the average team would.

The graphs are generated automatically from past data and live data (weather and betting lines, injuries, etc.)— and I have programmed the Text to be auto-generated, to describe the key takeaways from each plot.

I consider this to be a powerful representation, and I look forward to using it myself, so I hope you will too!

Less major, but still very useful updates

• Now on ALL charts, you can hover your cursor above each fantasy point projection, and it will display that week’s opponent in a pop-up.

• Defensive TDs are here! Now they are modeled, and their projection is shown in the “Details” chart for D/STs. (This addition should furthermore improve the accuracy overall!)

Good luck, and I hope everyone is enjoying the content!

/Subvertadown