August 2024

Welcome back to Subvertadown!

It’s been a super-busy offseason: model updates and new website tools, described below.

For those new, you should catch up on the last status by reading the 2023 Final Accuracy Report.

And check out this fast 2-minute overview, about using the website’s main free features:

For those returning, here are the major updates for 2024:

Entirely new tools

Significant additions I’m excited to introduce:

• Commenting for D/STs!

  • Everyone can share a comment, vote on them, and the best comments appear in a new comment tool-tip.

• Quarterbacks now get their own “Why-so-high/why-so-low” tool!

  • This was a popular request, and I hope it brings you insights that you never had before in any rankings list.

• PPR scoring is now available in the Strength-of-Schedule charts for flex positions (WR/RB/TE)!

  • This required developing entirely new predictive models for those positions in PPR.

Model Updates

You’ll be happy to know some model improvements that I’ve delivered on:

• Kicker models now take more under-usage into account.

  • This meant including new data for two-point conversions, going-for-it-on-the-fourth, and other corrections of significance.

• Betting line models are now calibrated to each week of the season instead of treating the whole season equally.

• D/ST models and other positions now include even more variables, such as pace of game (and pace of game allowed), fourth down success rates, etc.

Website features

Smaller additional features that will improve your experience using the website:

• See the opponent in the 17-week charts, by hovering over each square.

• Crowd-sourced D/ST scores are automatically generated from the Pick6×6 game, and above several vote counts, they now appear by default on the front page.

/Subvertadown