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2023 Week 4

Nick Folk KANSAS CITY, MO - SEPTEMBER 24: Kansas City Chiefs linebacker Willie Gay (50) hits Chicago Bears quarterback Justin Fields (1) during the second half on September 24, 2023 at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by William Purnell/Icon Sportswire)

[Saturday note: The model is getting updated as we transition from “early season” into some effect of “mid-season”. You will notice some shifting of projections. I don’t expect the order of things will change much.]

Reddit post for D/ST discussion Try to give it visibility if you guys like having the discussions— and don’t, if you don’t.

Reddit post for Kicker discussion

Last week actually was the most predictable week yet, statistically speaking…

…although you wouldn’t have felt that with the Cowboys D/ST or by seeing McManus miss a couple FGs.

Nevertheless, most positions exceeded normal predictability levels. Only RB and Kicker were below normal accuracy.

We expected this, based on the lopsided contests. Beware that weeks 4 and 5 will not be quite as obvious.

Don’t forget to play the Pick6×6 game!

Two leaders have 21 points (HiggsBoson) and 20 points (firebirdxvi).

Jobs well done, but the scores are low enough that anyone could overtake, anytime.

And yes, the game is yielding decent advice for your D/ST picks, as shared on Saturdays.

Betting lines almost got a taste of negative returns in week 3, until MNF lines came through, for a weekly net of 8%.

The advice is still to administer caution, as always, despite 3 positive weeks in a row. Season is at 56% of a single weekly bet amount— so you could almost even pack up. Stick with the conservative approach, and remember any given week could possibly conceivably yield more than 50% loss.

The current week 4 picks are much less obvious. So take a look, and especially have any eye towards week 5 for D/ST.

Good luck! And here again is the video of Free Stuff, to make sure you know about all the features on this site: