December 2, 2025

I hope everyone got a chance to look over the 3rd monthly Accuracy Report I published last time.

The Accuracy Report covers the main successes and difficulties of the 2025 season:

• D/STs Great! I see my models consistently ahead in accuracy, this year. The best lead in memory.

  • D/STs started the season predictable for experts, but then got tougher for most rankers.

• Kickers saw the opposite trend: An extremely rough weeks 3-6… but now the last 6 weeks have been very good.

  • From week 7 and onwards, it’s been top accuracy.

  • But for the full season, I measure my kicker model down at #3. Week 3 and week 5 are responsible.

• QBs have been fantastic, Survivor has been better than usual, and Betting Lines have stayed above my target.

Week 13 in Review

Defenses: Whoa again! It came as a surprise, but week 13 was the best showcase for my D/ST model. It’s already been zooming ahead, but this time it stayed afloat, while all other rankers had lower weekly accuracy than average.

• Lucky busts avoided: You wouldn’t notice, but the main success was being lower on Eagles and Broncos, than just about any other ranker I compare to. Hopefully you grabbed my Buccaneers or Jaguars options instead, or better yet the Patriots.

• Top good calls were: Seahawks, Chargers, and 49ers.

• Main bust: The Rams.

• Lucky boom: I was higher on the Dolphins than just about anyone.

Kickers: It was an above average week in predictability, for just about everyone. Weather forecasts had scrambled the rankings during the week, which felt strange.

• Busts avoided: The bottom 10 kickers averaged just 4.5 points. That usually doesn’t happen, but this time it felt validating.

• Two significant busts at the top: Loop and Butker. (See my Kicker Hall of Shame.)

• Top good calls: Myers, Dicker, Lutz, and Borregales

• My biggest miss: I was too low on Aubrey, who the model thought would struggle against the Chiefs. And everyone missed McPherson’s big boom game.

QB: It was one of the toughest weeks for QB, with Lamar’s bust leading the way. Stafford and Herbert didn’t deliver what was needed either. Too high on Stroud, too low on Brissett. Instead, Young, Mariota, and Love were boom better options, booming in the lower half of rankings lists. An unusual situation for QBs.

Survivor: Worst week so far this season, with two pathway options failing: Eagles and Rams were both upsets. The Chargers and Dolphins will substitute their places in the pathways.

Betting Lines: There have been better bettor weeks, but at least we did slightly better than break-even, with +3% ROI for the week. I’ll take that any time! Most losses were spread bets recommended for closing. Biggest losses from the Ravens falling very short, and from the Dolphins barely missing the mark against the Saints.

Week 14 Outlook

Things are winding down as we finally approach fantasy playoffs!

I hope you’ve grabbed the D/STs you want, by now, using the D/ST pairing tool to look ahead.

Hopefully you’ve also “settled” on your kicker of choice, although yes streaming is still probably feasible. Bates, Badgley, Gay, Lutz, and Santos will have good 1-week matchups and most likely you’ll find an option.

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