Leaving this up for anyone who was too busy leading up to the holidays:

December 23, 2025

[2pmEST: D/STs were updated with some significant rank changes compared to morning launch.]

Welcome to the final week of the fantasy season!

I see no big surprises for week 17, the way I warned that week 16 might be chaotic.

The only foreseeable changes are that the Ravens and Cowboys might be better defensive picks, pending the situation with the Packers and Commanders QBs.

Week 16 in review

With so many “evenly matched” teams, it was inevitable we’d see mix-ups last week.

In retrospect, it seems lucky that the Betting Lines returned a +4% ROI for the week. That keeps things on-target for the season.

Still, there were a lot of fantasy upsets, including significant QBs like Allen, Lamar, Brissett, etc. Last week began with a discouraging start on Thursday, with the Seahawks - Rams game that failed to deliver on multiple expectations. Despite the weather forecast, we saw a high game total. And despite the high total, the game script left our beloved kicker, Myers (#9), with only 2 points. And despite the Rams missing Davante Adams, the usually-strong Seahawks defense made the 1 D/ST bust of the week for Subvertadown models.

Otherwise, defense and kicker predictions were great for the week! Unlike most experts, the model correct put Giants and Titans higher up in the top-7, giving one of the best accuracy scores. And the model correctly picked out Smyth in the top 3-5 when few (anyone?) others did— He was the week’s top scorer.

The worst category for the week was QB. Every ranker struck out with Josh Allen, of course. And the “clever” ones mistakenly promoted Brissett in what turned out to be an off week. The models biggest successes were: downgrading Lamar, Dart and Love, while promoting Lawrence, Williams, and Goff.

Wishing everyone good luck in the final week!

/Subvertadown