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Week 7 Update - 2022

Nick Folk Los Angeles Chargers kicker Dustin Hopkins (6) kicks the game winning field goal in overtime to defeat the Denver Broncos 19-16 in an NFL football game, Monday, Oct. 17, 2022, in Inglewood, Calif. Chargers won 19-16. (AP Photo/Jeff Lewis)

October 18, 2022

Items Worth Noting:

  • Don’t miss the Reddit forum discussion about D/ST waiver picks. Includes remarks on how tough week 6 was.

  • Only 2 byes next week. The current week is what you’ve been preparing for. Next tough choices in week 9 (six byes).

Improvements to Betting Lines

You’ll notice an updated format on the betting lines page:

  1. Now you can scale the bet amounts to different bankroll levels.

  2. Now there is an explicit recommendation for how much to bet versus how much to reserve for future weeks.

  3. Now there is a suggestion for timing of some bets— highly uncertain, but anyway a guideline if you’re in doubt.

I think we’re reaching a final stage. You know, last year, this start out just posting tables of modeled spreads and totals (no guidance— just figure it out for yourself). Then I started adding percentages, to help quantify confidence. Finally last season, I converted these to actual bet amounts for a weekly portfolio.

This year started by only improving formulas. Then 2 weeks ago I wrote the article about what returns to expect. Now, I have studied historical performance, for both start-of-week and end-of-week (opening vs. closing liens), so I can give even more insight that hopefully helps:

  • In general, betting earlier in the week is probably better, especially for O/U.

    • But the difference is small, so betting later in the week is also okay.

      • Especially spreads can be better later in the week— some good targets for spreads only emerge later.

    • What you miss with early bets is updated roster changes (injuries or other changes), but sometimes you can get ahead of line changes.

  • Expect to make 10 different bets each week. Smaller amounts on spreads, but maybe more of them.

  • Remember that losing it all is always possible. Manage the bankroll by reserving a good amount; my recommendation is just a guideline based on historical simulation of balances.

The flex positions and “likely error” models will get next attention— and then I will really like to start updating the existing articles! Thanks for the support as I push this all out.