December 26th, 2023
[Reddit post here for discussion]
This is it! Down to the finish.
Those of you who read my Christmas Day update already know: Last week was exceptionally anomalous, which is not what we wanted, in the most critical week #16. While my own Betting Lines recommendations did well and had a positive return for the week, the sportsbooks (“Vegas”) were more wrong than they have been all season. In fact, in the end, the correlation between implied scores and results was very near 0— actually slightly negative. That means the week was darn near pure randomness. So we saw a lot of upsets.
In particular, D/ST scores were all quite low, for the week— 1 point below average. The good news is that the low scoring was uniform across all top-ranked teams; therefore, your opponent most likely had a very low D/ST score.
The randomness of the week had especially larger impact on Kickers. Koo and Elliott shone as bright spots, while Bass and Badgley were okay— but the rest were busts.
Week 17 is my final week of rankings, so I hope the predictability finishes closer to normal— if not with a tremendous bang like was saw in week 15.
After that, we will look forward to the final Accuracy Report, and then I will work on off-season updates.
Tagged underExclusive , Expectations , Kicker , Quarterback , Understanding Statistics , Weekly Strategy
Tagged underD/ST , Expectations , Quarterback , Understanding Statistics