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2023 - Week 15

Nick Folk BALTIMORE, MD - DECEMBER 10: Baltimore Ravens wide receiver Zay Flowers (4) runs after a reception against Los Angeles Rams safety Jordan Fuller (4) during the Los Angeles Rams game versus the Baltimore Ravens on December 10, 2023 at M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore, MD. (Photo by Mark Goldman/Icon Sportswire)

December 12th, 2023

[Reddit post for D/ST and Kicker discussion is here]

For 6 weeks since week 8, we saw an extended and consistent era of predictability. It seemed like we’d had it all figured out.

Now Week 14 has brought that good trend to a crashing halt. We saw the worst of Vegas betting lines last week. And the errors translated to disruptions at D/ST, QB, and Kicker.

The chaotic week also meant the end of the Survivor path branches: they were primarily counting on the Texans, Packers, and Steelers— all surprise losses.

Week 15 now is impacted by the surprises we saw in week 14. Additionally, QB substitutions / injuries have moved the D/STs somewhat. The Packers are lower than we last thought, and the Bengals and Titans are higher.

Now in playoffs, hopefully streaming predictability rights itself!

By the way, I noticed some extra betting lines had appeared Monday night, which I had not recorded and which I had not had a chance to review as I usually do. Normally the lines are frozen before the last Sunday games, so it was a mistake. Let me know, by the contact linked to Reddit below, if you feel you’d like the spurious recs included in the accuracy report next month; otherwise I will stick with the Sunday status on record!

Good luck to the finish!