January 6th, 2022

1. Here’s a post analyzing how 2022 NFL scoring was different and impacted fantasy

2. And find below a written list of K and D/ST streaming candidates for week 18.

January 4th, 2022

For now I wanted to note that the website is entering off-season mode, with the site unlocked and free to explore.

As I always do in the off-season, the projections in all charts now represent how the models would predict things now, “as if those games were played over again today.” This lets us judge what results were “random” when they happened, compared to what the expectations should have been. At the season start we did not have nearly complete knowledge of each team’s strengths and weaknesses. This view lets us explore “what ifs” and “if only we had known…” Have fun with it!

More soon, and Happy New Year,

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Week 18 Streaming

I do not use my full models for week 18, and I never have. The full models rely on many inputs relating to team dynamics that simply don’t apply when teams pull many of their starters.

However, you should all be aware of the simple streaming strategy based on Vegas lines:

• You stream a D/ST against an opposing offense that has a low implied game score.

• You stream a Kicker on an offense that has a high implied game score.

I am actually applying slightly more sophistication to the kicker selection below, but these two points are key to have in mind when you’re trying to make sense of interrelations and randomness etc.

Anyway, here are the top 15 D/ST picks in order:

• 49ers

• Eagles

• Bengals

• Jaguars

• Cowboys

• Dolphins

• Colts

• Seahawks

• Vikings

• Falcons

• Broncos

• Bills

• Steelers

• Saints

• Jets

And here are the top Kicker picks in order:

• Butker

• McPherson

• Maher

• Bass

• Gould

• Elliott

• Joseph

• Myers

• Patterson

• Crosby

• Koo

• McLaughlin

• Sanders

• Boswell

• Badgley

Good luck— and tell your league you need to get rid of week 18!

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