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Week 10 - 2022

Nick Folk New York Jets linebacker C.J. Mosley (57) hits Buffalo Bills running back James Cook (28) during the first half of an NFL football game, Sunday, Nov. 6, 2022, in East Rutherford, N.J. (AP Photo/John Minchillo)

November 12, 2022

A minor correction made on the new kicker model: Maher moved lower for this week. (Still good ROS.)

November 11, 2022

Update: Kicker discussion located here!

Don’t miss the analysis and description of the kicker model updates.

The article will get transferred to the site later.

November 8, 2022

For discussion about D/ST picks, here is the discussion—with the Tuesday top 12. It’s on my personal subreddit, as a trial for this week.

Kicker update

The main piece of news I have is that I have finally completed the majority of work to update the Kicker model!

More details later, but in short it includes optimization on more parameters, most especially on the pattern of field goal distances by each kicker. This is the big one, after months in the works! It’s impossible to notice the difference, of course— but there’s more in depth analysis behind what’s there now, and it should be overall better at sorting.

Week 9 in very short

Meanwhile, the models chug along: The Betting lines returned 32% last week, after a couple bad weeks. The D/ST was a bit more random than the pleasant week 8 we had (my biggest miss was the Patriots). Kickers had an uptick, and meanwhile the QB model is doing quite well overall.

The previous 2 weeks I have posted this article describing more details about mid-season accuracy, so hopefully you didn’t miss it. I will be back with more after I get out my next articles and finalize the model implementation.

Will be back soon with more!