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Welcome to Week 1 - 2022

Nick Folk AP Photo/AJ Mast

September 5th, 2022


If you’re new and missed the article about what this whole website is about, read here.

For everyone else, welcome back, and at long last welcome to the start of week 1!

There are a few extra notes to be aware of, at the moment:

  1. New D/ST model beyond the old ESPN model: There is a new feature in the D/ST section, you might have noticed as of a couple days ago. Now you can select your D/ST scoring setting: either ESPN or Yahoo! (same as NFL). They are two separate models that produce distinct fantasy point projections! I will post a write-up soon about the differences in predictive statistics.

  2. Misaligned projections. Yes, the D/ST supplementary stats (interceptions, sacks etc.) don’t always match with the rankings— but I suggest you use them to aid your decision making (especially with the new Yahoo projections).

  3. Model updates. I have finally updated most of the main models! Just in time. The new models are based on 12 years of data (instead of 4), lending even more robustness. The main models still needed an update are QB and all the supplementary stats models. Anyway, last year’s models are already good, so the updating is just one more thing I’m excited about.

  4. Betting lines. A special note that I do not ever really recommend betting much on week 1. The lower “pot” total reflects that. In week 1, you are essentially betting whether Vegas lines have overcompensated for off-season changes (in comparison to my conservative/mathematical adjustments). By the way, the pot total will fluctuate through the season (10,000 is just an average).

  5. Contacting with Questions. There is also a new link to clarify where to send questions. The e-mail on the webpage is for site issues only. For questions about my stuff (projections etc.) you should post a comment to the Reddit post here.

Thanks for all your support, and good luck fighting all the uncertainty of week 1!