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2023 - Week 10

Nick Folk CLEVELAND, OH - NOVEMBER 05: Arizona Cardinals quarterback Clayton Tune (15) is sacked by Cleveland Browns defensive tackle Dalvin Tomlinson (94) during the fourth quarter of the National Football League game between the Arizona Cardinals and Cleveland Browns on November 5, 2023, at Cleveland Browns Stadium in Cleveland, OH. (Photo by Frank Jansky/Icon Sportswire)

November 7th, 2023

[Reddit discussion about D/ST is here.]

[Reddit Consensus post for D/ST and Kicker is here]

Week 9 was an amazing week for basically every projection model. It was particularly a boom week for D/ST and Kicker— through the roof! You were probably pleasantly surprised if you followed the rankings suggestions.

Kicker, in particular, beat out all other kicker rankings out there, by a long shot. Now after 3 decent weeks of kicker predictability, I hope we can expect that we’ve entered a more enjoyable period for streaming.

The one model I’m upset by is was week 9’s line betting. I rarely comment on any single outcome— because they’re all so random anyway. But if I grab just one chance per year to claim the odds seemed unfair, this is the one I’ll choose: Calling the Over on the Saints-Bears game was something we deserved to see come through! Grupe’s missed field goal was the deciding factor— besides a couple other chances on both sides of the ball— and the miss flipped the week from positive returns to negative. My model rarely judges the odds to be so good for a single wager, and that feels like a missed chance to make gains.

In case you missed it last week, don’t forget to view the Accuracy Round-up for the second month.

We have added one new feature to the D/ST histograms: Now the list of similar matches includes 1 example of a bust outcome and 1 example of a boom outcome. You can use these as reference cases, if you’re interested to delve into “what went wrong / what went right” in the past.