Week 17 - 2024
By Subvertadown
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Current Season
CINCINNATI, OH - DECEMBER 22: Cincinnati Bengals safety Geno Stone (22) intercepts the ball during the game against the Cleveland Browns and the Cincinnati Bengals on December 22, 2024, at Paycor Stadium in Cincinnati, OH. (Photo by Ian Johnson/Icon Sportswire)
December 24, 2024
Happy holidays to everyone, and good luck in the finals!
In week 16, D/STs and Kickers turned out to be extremely predictable, for fantasy.
Hopefully that benefited you more than your opponent!
The main major upsets were the Buccaneers losing (disturbed the 3rd Survivor pathway), and QBs were more off (affected by Hurts) than usual.
I will be back soon with an analysis of betting lines probabilities, as a prelude to the final accuracy report that will close out the season.
Best wishes for a great new year.
/Subvertadown
How to Interpret the Kicker Curve Visualizations
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How to Use , KickerAccuracy report -- First Third of the Season, Weeks 1 - 6
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Expectations , Current Season , AccuracyWeek 3 - 2024
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Expectations , Current Season , Updates / NewsFinal Accuracy Report 2023
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Expectations , Accuracy , Updates / NewsAnalysis of Holding vs. Streaming Kickers
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Season Strategy , Understanding Statistics , Weekly Strategy , KickerCheck-list -- Reminders -- Things That Always Need Repeating
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Expectations , Weekly StrategySurvivor Pool Strategy
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How to Use , Understanding Statistics , Survivor PoolsThe Correlation Coefficient Represents the Ratio of Skill:Luck (for Each Fantasy Position)
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Expectations , Understanding Statistics , Accuracy , KickerFantasy Score Distributions: Point Distributions vs. Error Distributions
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Expectations , Understanding StatisticsHow the Roster Skill/Luck ratio is Affected by Removing a Fantasy Position
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Expectations , Weekly StrategyStreaming QBs can be a Viable Strategy (if your league is not too deep)
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Understanding Statistics , Weekly Strategy , QuarterbackIs QB Really More Predictable Than D/ST?
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Expectations , Understanding Statistics , D/ST , Quarterback"Fantasy Points Allowed": Too Weak for Making Lineup Decisions
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Expectations , Weekly Strategy , AccuracyPairing/Stacking Analysis: Correlations Between the Different Fantasy Positions
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Understanding Statistics , Weekly Strategy , ExclusiveWeek-to-week Predictability: "The 0.3 Target"
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Expectations , Understanding Statistics , Accuracy , KickerWeek-to-week Predictability of Each Fantasy Position
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Expectations , Modeling , AccuracyPredictability of Game Scores and Fantasy Positions (during five years: 2017-2021)
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Expectations , AccuracyAccuracy of Betting Lines, by Week# (during five years 2017-2021)
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Expectations , Betting Lines20 Fantasy Parameters, from Most to Least Predictable
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Expectations , Understanding StatisticsComponents Contributing to Kicker Predictability
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Expectations , Understanding Statistics , KickerShould You Pair QB + Kicker?
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Expectations , Understanding Statistics , Weekly Strategy , Kicker , Quarterback , ExclusivePitfalls of Trying to Make Your Own Forecasting Models
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Modeling , Understanding StatisticsBetting on Spreads
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Understanding Statistics , Betting LinesBetting on Totals (O/U)
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Understanding Statistics , Betting LinesCalculating Weekly Accuracy: Pros & Cons of Different Methods
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Understanding Statistics , Accuracy3 Ways to Intuitively Understand Skill/Luck Ratios (and ranking accuracy)
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Understanding Statistics , AccuracyRemembering How to Have Fun with the Game
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Expectations , Weekly StrategyCorrelation is Not Causation... (So how can we believe stats can make accurate forecasting?)
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Understanding StatisticsMotivation for Modeling Kickers
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Modeling , KickerWhat People Say About Kickers
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Expectations , KickerWeekly Strategy for Choosing a Kicker
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Weekly Strategy , KickerSetting Expectation Level for Kickers: How Random/Predictable are Kickers?
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Expectations , KickerWhat People Say about D/ST
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Expectations , Weekly Strategy , D/STSetting Expectation Levels for D/ST
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Expectations , D/STSecond Month Accuracy Report 2023; Weeks 1 - 8
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Expectations , Accuracy , Prev. Season / ArchiveWeek 11 - 2022
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Accuracy , Kicker , Betting Lines , Prev. Season / Archive