Week 8 - 2026

October 27, 2026

Week 8

Only a small bit of website news, which is that the TAPsheets got a needed update.

• Now the TE trade values get calculated more accurately, and we also fixed their estimates for first downs.

Last week, Week 7

While Kickers and even QBs went great last week, there’s no hiding it: week 7 was “D-oomsday”! D for Defence.

• The root is clear: Vegas lines were less accurate than ever, and that' always has the biggest effect on fantasy D/STs.

  • The correlation of NFL game scores to the Vegas-implied team scores was just 0.18, which is the worst showing of predictability since 2024.

• Even if you followed someone else’s rankings, the chances were very high that the top 8 included 4 busts: Texans, Titans, Jets, and Panthers.

  • These teams all ended with fantasy scores in the range of -4 to just 3 points!

Betting Line results were shaky, even if things have been worse:

• The Survivor pathway 1A failed with the loss of the Texans against Giants. Replaced with backup pick, Vikings.

• Betting Lines were mildly negative for the week, which means we didn’t recover. Still above “random pick” level for the season, but ROI has dipped negative for the season, for the first time. There’s not much to do about gambling, but I do care a lot and I’m on it. I already see an improvement potential on the Spreads model, and that will be active now.

Flex positions:

• WR finally had a slightly “down” week relative to other rankers, but RB did better than others this time.

• TE amazingly continued to deliver highest accuracy. Being higher on Fannin and Hunter are a couple of examples why.

Let’s muster everything we’ve got and get’em week 8.

/Subvertadown