October 29th, 2024

Reddit early D/ST post is here for discussion Thanks for showing your support last time!

Extra post, explaining Methodology for kicker modeling

Last week

Week 8 demonstrated a shift— it was a week for the underdogs, even though the matchups looked more lopsided.

This was in contrast to week 7, where the games should have been closer, but the favorites had their day.

The success of underdogs naturally affected your week 8 fantasy picks.

D/STs were expected to be more predictable this time, compare to that previous week— but in fact, accuracy was exactly the same, and week 8 rather failed to bring the higher end D/ST fantasy points that we saw before. My models were clearly more accurate than others in week 7, but in week 8 all ranking sources were nearly equal.

The advantage for underdogs this week also decreased the number of wins from my Betting Lines suggestions. The week ended net positive— close to +1% returns— but my models had believed that most of the potential for gains would come from betting on favorites. But favorites didn’t cover their spreads, so payback was much lower than it could have been. Still, for 5 weeks straight we have now had “normal” behavior here, in contrast to weeks 2 and 3. So we’re slowly working our way back.

The Kickers model continues to please. Lutz at #2 was the only bust, and my model correctly sorted Tucker, Koo, and Aubrey lower than others. I really feel the updates to this model are showing their strength.

Meanwhile, in other good news, the QB model continues to chug ahead, surprising even me in how it has recently beat other top sources. If only it could have predicted Love’s injury, that would have saved a lot of teams.

Among Survivor pathways, Path 3 took losses for both options— Ravens or Jets. In a break from standard procedure, I will replace that pathway with the Chargers selection— Because a pathway with Chargers had been suggested before Saturday.

This week

No special notes. Just a reminder to always look ahead to the future projections, also as more bye weeks will arise.

/Subvertadown