Matchup Bonuses can help you predict if a fantasy player will score more or less than usual. We first model the team "Baseline", which represents the fantasy points expected from all team players at the given position. The rest of the table indicates the weekly deviations from this baseline-- i.e. the "matchup bonus". The AVG column therefore represents the rest-of-season strength of schedule.
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Baseline
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Next 4
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11
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12
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13
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14
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15
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16
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17
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AVG
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Playoffs
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|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texans | 13.6 | 1.6 | 6.0 | 1.5 | 5.5 | 2.2 | -1.6 | 0.3 | 1.1 | 1.6 | -0.1 |
| Cowboys | 21.5 | -0.6 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 4.8 | -2.1 | -1.2 | -3.8 | -0.5 | -0.4 | -1.8 |
| Broncos | 20.2 | 1.4 | -1.3 | -0.5 | 3.5 | 1.6 | -0.9 | 1.4 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1.1 |
| Steelers | 19.1 | 0.8 | -4.5 | -1.5 | 3.5 | -0.9 | 1.0 | -0.5 | 1.9 | 0.3 | 0.8 |
| Buccaneers | 9.4 | 2.0 | -1.8 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 2.4 |
| Cardinals | 13.4 | -0.2 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 1.8 | - | -2.4 | 0.1 | -3.9 | 0.2 | -2.1 |
| Patriots | 17.0 | 1.0 | - | 2.4 | 1.7 | 2.3 | -1.9 | 1.8 | -1.5 | 1.3 | -0.5 |
| Falcons | 23.6 | 1.2 | - | -1.3 | 1.0 | 2.3 | -1.2 | 2.8 | -0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| Jaguars | 18.6 | -1.3 | -1.4 | 1.9 | 1.0 | -3.1 | -3.3 | 0.3 | 1.6 | -0.6 | -0.5 |
| Titans | 18.5 | 0.6 | -1.7 | 0.8 | 0.7 | -4.4 | 2.2 | 3.7 | 3.0 | 0.6 | 3.0 |
| Chiefs | 21.5 | -0.4 | -6.3 | 2.3 | 0.3 | -1.7 | -1.4 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Lions | 23.8 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 2.6 | 0.0 | -2.4 | 4.9 | -0.8 | -3.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| Panthers | 14.2 | 0.8 | -2.5 | -0.8 | -0.4 | 1.1 | -0.3 | 2.7 | -0.8 | 0.4 | 0.5 |
| Bengals | 10.9 | 1.5 | -1.0 | 3.6 | -0.6 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 2.9 | -1.4 | 1.9 | 0.9 |
| Dolphins | 23.8 | -0.9 | 0.3 | -0.6 | -0.9 | -0.6 | 1.8 | -3.9 | -4.7 | -0.8 | -2.3 |
| Saints | 17.3 | 1.4 | - | -2.1 | -1.0 | 2.6 | 5.8 | -1.7 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 1.4 |
| Jets | 16.1 | -0.7 | -2.1 | -4.8 | -1.1 | 2.7 | -5.0 | 0.5 | -2.6 | -1.5 | -2.4 |
| Packers | 15.7 | 0.9 | 4.8 | -0.5 | -1.3 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 1.1 |
| Colts | 18.5 | 1.0 | - | 3.2 | -1.5 | 0.1 | 4.9 | 0.4 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 3.5 |
| Chargers | 16.9 | 0.9 | 2.1 | -2.8 | -1.6 | 2.7 | 2.9 | -0.4 | 1.4 | 0.2 | 1.3 |
| Rams | 16.6 | -1.3 | -1.4 | 0.5 | -1.7 | -4.9 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 2.9 | -1.0 | 1.4 |
| Commanders | 16.9 | 0.1 | 2.0 | -3.2 | -1.9 | - | -1.0 | 3.1 | -3.0 | -0.7 | -0.3 |
| Browns | 21.0 | 0.2 | 1.1 | 2.2 | -2.7 | -0.3 | 0.6 | 3.1 | 3.6 | 0.6 | 2.5 |
| Eagles | 18.3 | -0.8 | -5.8 | 0.4 | -4.0 | -4.2 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 3.7 | -0.6 | 2.8 |
| Seahawks | 17.2 | -4.0 | -5.7 | -5.7 | -4.0 | -6.4 | -4.4 | -1.3 | 2.8 | -4.4 | -1.0 |
| 49ers | 26.2 | -0.9 | -1.9 | 0.9 | -4.4 | 2.6 | 1.9 | -3.5 | -1.2 | -0.5 | -0.9 |
| Bills | 21.9 | -1.7 | -1.1 | -5.9 | - | -3.0 | -3.5 | 1.4 | -1.0 | -2.7 | -1.0 |
| Raiders | 14.8 | 0.6 | -4.8 | -1.2 | - | 1.3 | 3.8 | -3.3 | 1.7 | 0.1 | 0.7 |
| Bears | 15.9 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 1.6 | - | -1.5 | -1.0 | 5.0 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 1.6 |
| Ravens | 18.0 | -3.0 | -0.1 | 1.2 | - | -0.6 | -1.8 | -6.5 | -3.6 | -1.9 | -4.0 |
| Vikings | 14.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 2.1 | - | 3.1 | 0.5 | -1.2 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 |
| Giants | 11.6 | -0.4 | -1.0 | 0.4 | - | 2.0 | 1.7 | -4.8 | -0.6 | -0.2 | -1.2 |
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