Matchup Bonuses can help you predict if a fantasy player will score more or less than usual. We first model the team "Baseline", which represents the fantasy points expected from all team players at the given position. The rest of the table indicates the weekly deviations from this baseline-- i.e. the "matchup bonus". The AVG column therefore represents the rest-of-season strength of schedule.
| Player/Team |
Baseline
|
Next 4
|
11
|
12
|
13
|
14
|
15
|
16
|
17
|
AVG
|
Playoffs
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaguars | 30.9 | 5.2 | Chargers -2.6 | Cardinals -0.8 | Titans -2.5 | Colts 1.4 | Jets -6.8 | Broncos 0.3 | Colts 5.2 | 5.2 | -0.4 |
| Falcons | 20.7 | 5.1 | Panthers -0.7 | Saints -2.2 | Jets -5.3 | Seahawks 2.3 | Buccaneers 1.0 | Cardinals -2.9 | Rams 5.1 | 5.1 | 1.1 |
| Bengals | 28.3 | 4.6 | Steelers 2.3 | Patriots -2.7 | Ravens 0.8 | Bills -4.4 | Ravens 1.2 | Dolphins -2.3 | Cardinals 4.6 | 4.6 | 1.2 |
| Buccaneers | 29.4 | 3.7 | Bills -3.0 | Rams 4.2 | Cardinals -0.5 | Saints -0.8 | Falcons 1.7 | Panthers -1.9 | Dolphins 3.7 | 3.7 | 1.2 |
| Raiders | 16.9 | 3.6 | Cowboys -5.5 | Browns 0.0 | Chargers 1.9 | Broncos -0.3 | Eagles -3.9 | Texans 1.1 | Giants 3.6 | 3.6 | 0.3 |
| Vikings | 25.0 | 3.5 | Bears 0.3 | Packers 1.0 | Seahawks 3.2 | Commanders -1.5 | Cowboys 1.3 | Giants -3.1 | Lions 3.5 | 3.5 | 0.6 |
| Panthers | 26.0 | 2.9 | Falcons -1.1 | 49ers -5.4 | Rams 2.5 | BYE - | Saints 0.1 | Buccaneers 1.7 | Seahawks 2.9 | 2.9 | 1.6 |
| Commanders | 26.0 | 2.8 | Dolphins -5.1 | BYE - | Broncos -1.0 | Vikings 1.0 | Giants -3.4 | Eagles 0.9 | Cowboys 2.8 | 2.8 | 0.1 |
| 49ers | 23.7 | 2.7 | Cardinals 0.0 | Panthers -4.5 | Browns -3.8 | BYE - | Titans -3.0 | Colts 0.9 | Bears 2.7 | 2.7 | 0.2 |
| Dolphins | 22.0 | 2.3 | Commanders -2.2 | BYE - | Saints -3.4 | Jets -2.1 | Steelers -0.6 | Bengals -2.4 | Buccaneers 2.3 | 2.3 | -0.2 |
| Packers | 29.7 | 2.2 | Giants -3.7 | Vikings -4.8 | Lions 0.5 | Bears 0.5 | Broncos -2.8 | Bears -0.7 | Ravens 2.2 | 2.2 | -0.4 |
| Titans | 20.6 | 1.9 | Texans -3.1 | Seahawks 3.8 | Jaguars -1.9 | Browns -2.3 | 49ers -1.9 | Chiefs -4.0 | Saints 1.9 | 1.9 | -1.3 |
| Browns | 15.9 | 0.5 | Ravens -2.3 | Raiders 0.7 | 49ers -2.9 | Titans 0.8 | Bears 0.2 | Bills -1.1 | Steelers 0.5 | 0.5 | -0.1 |
| Cowboys | 37.0 | 0.0 | Raiders -5.2 | Eagles 3.3 | Chiefs -0.8 | Lions 3.6 | Vikings -2.8 | Chargers 2.1 | Commanders 0.0 | 0.0 | -0.2 |
| Saints | 25.7 | -0.1 | BYE - | Falcons 0.5 | Dolphins -4.2 | Buccaneers 2.1 | Panthers -0.6 | Jets -1.8 | Titans -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.8 |
| Cardinals | 21.2 | -0.2 | 49ers 0.4 | Jaguars 0.2 | Buccaneers 2.7 | Rams 4.8 | Texans -0.8 | Falcons 3.9 | Bengals -0.2 | -0.2 | 0.9 |
| Giants | 23.9 | -0.2 | Packers -0.4 | Lions 2.7 | Patriots -3.2 | BYE - | Commanders -2.5 | Vikings -2.7 | Raiders -0.2 | -0.2 | -1.8 |
| Bears | 28.3 | -0.4 | Vikings 1.7 | Steelers 0.7 | Eagles -0.3 | Packers 1.9 | Browns -2.5 | Packers -0.6 | 49ers -0.4 | -0.4 | -1.2 |
| Colts | 31.4 | -0.7 | BYE - | Chiefs -0.9 | Texans -1.0 | Jaguars 0.2 | Seahawks 3.9 | 49ers -1.4 | Jaguars -0.7 | -0.7 | 0.6 |
| Rams | 36.9 | -0.9 | Seahawks 3.9 | Buccaneers 3.8 | Panthers -0.7 | Cardinals 0.5 | Lions 2.4 | Seahawks 3.7 | Falcons -0.9 | -0.9 | 1.7 |
| Texans | 28.8 | -1.0 | Titans -2.9 | Bills -0.1 | Colts 1.0 | Chiefs 0.4 | Cardinals -2.8 | Raiders 1.0 | Chargers -1.0 | -1.0 | -0.9 |
| Ravens | 21.9 | -1.8 | Browns -6.6 | Jets -3.3 | Bengals -0.5 | Steelers 2.0 | Bengals -4.5 | Patriots -0.5 | Packers -1.8 | -1.8 | -2.3 |
| Patriots | 30.1 | -1.8 | Jets -4.3 | Bengals -4.0 | Giants -2.2 | BYE - | Bills -1.3 | Ravens 4.3 | Jets -1.8 | -1.8 | 0.4 |
| Chargers | 30.8 | -1.8 | Jaguars -1.0 | BYE - | Raiders -0.2 | Eagles 1.0 | Chiefs -1.8 | Cowboys 3.2 | Texans -1.8 | -1.8 | -0.1 |
| Broncos | 31.2 | -1.9 | Chiefs -5.2 | BYE - | Commanders -1.3 | Raiders -0.1 | Packers 0.1 | Jaguars 0.7 | Chiefs -1.9 | -1.9 | -0.4 |
| Lions | 34.4 | -2.2 | Eagles -1.6 | Giants 0.1 | Packers 1.6 | Cowboys 2.2 | Rams 3.8 | Steelers 4.6 | Vikings -2.2 | -2.2 | 2.1 |
| Jets | 22.1 | -2.4 | Patriots -0.6 | Ravens 4.4 | Falcons 1.4 | Dolphins 2.0 | Jaguars -2.0 | Saints 2.8 | Patriots -2.4 | -2.4 | -0.5 |
| Seahawks | 34.0 | -2.7 | Rams 4.9 | Titans 0.7 | Vikings -0.6 | Falcons 3.5 | Colts 0.2 | Rams 6.0 | Panthers -2.7 | -2.7 | 1.2 |
| Eagles | 26.3 | -3.5 | Lions -1.3 | Cowboys 1.2 | Bears -1.9 | Chargers -3.0 | Raiders -5.7 | Commanders -1.0 | Bills -3.5 | -3.5 | -3.4 |
| Bills | 24.6 | -4.3 | Buccaneers -0.4 | Texans -2.4 | Steelers -2.1 | Bengals -4.0 | Patriots -0.7 | Browns -0.6 | Eagles -4.3 | -4.3 | -1.9 |
| Steelers | 20.5 | -5.3 | Bengals -3.8 | Bears -2.2 | Bills -4.1 | Ravens 3.4 | Dolphins -4.6 | Lions 5.4 | Browns -5.3 | -5.3 | -1.5 |
| Chiefs | 27.4 | -7.6 | Broncos -3.6 | Colts -1.0 | Cowboys 0.8 | Texans -1.4 | Chargers -0.7 | Titans -1.0 | Broncos -7.6 | -7.6 | -3.1 |
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