Week 1
Matchup Bonuses can help you predict if a fantasy player will score more or less than usual. We first model the team "Baseline", which represents the fantasy points expected from all team players at the given position. The rest of the table indicates the weekly deviations from this baseline-- i.e. the "matchup bonus". The AVG column therefore represents the rest-of-season strength of schedule.
| Player/Team |
Baseline
|
Next 4
|
11
|
12
|
13
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14
|
15
|
16
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17
|
AVG
|
Playoffs
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lions | 25.1 | 0.4 | Buccaneers 0.9 | Bears 3.0 | Falcons 1.5 | Titans 1.1 | Vikings 1.0 | Giants -2.2 | Bears -0.9 | 0.6 | -0.7 |
| Chargers | 22.7 | 2.6 | Jets 3.6 | Patriots 5.5 | Buccaneers 0.9 | Raiders 1.2 | 49ers 4.3 | Dolphins 0.5 | Chiefs 5.2 | 2.7 | 3.4 |
| Ravens | 19.2 | 2.2 | Panthers -0.1 | Texans 1.6 | BYE - | Buccaneers 0.8 | Steelers 0.3 | Browns 1.5 | Bengals 0.4 | 1.1 | 0.7 |
| Saints | 20.2 | 1.0 | Bears 0.5 | Bengals -0.3 | Packers 4.1 | Panthers -0.4 | Buccaneers -0.6 | Cardinals 3.3 | Falcons 2.6 | 1.5 | 1.8 |
| Bengals | 24.2 | 1.6 | Commanders -4.9 | Saints 1.5 | Browns -0.3 | Chiefs 1.4 | Panthers -0.4 | Colts 1.9 | Ravens 1.9 | 0.7 | 1.1 |
| Raiders | 17.0 | 1.8 | Broncos 0.7 | Browns -2.0 | BYE - | Chargers 2.0 | Broncos 3.2 | Titans 1.1 | Cardinals 0.4 | 1.2 | 1.6 |
| Buccaneers | 22.3 | 2.0 | Lions 4.1 | Panthers -2.8 | Chargers 2.7 | Ravens 0.9 | Saints 2.5 | Falcons 3.3 | Rams 2.2 | 1.8 | 2.7 |
| Eagles | 20.7 | -1.5 | Steelers -0.2 | Cowboys 0.7 | Cardinals 0.7 | Colts -0.8 | Seahawks 1.7 | Texans -0.3 | 49ers -1.3 | -0.8 | 0.0 |
| Vikings | 19.7 | 0.7 | 49ers 0.0 | Falcons 2.3 | Panthers 2.1 | Patriots 0.8 | Lions 3.9 | Commanders 2.3 | Jets -0.9 | 1.2 | 1.8 |
| Colts | 22.3 | 1.0 | Texans 1.2 | Giants 3.2 | BYE - | Eagles -1.1 | Titans -2.7 | Bengals 2.8 | Browns -1.5 | 0.7 | -0.5 |
| Steelers | 18.7 | -0.2 | Eagles -1.4 | Broncos 0.5 | Texans -0.4 | Jaguars -4.0 | Ravens 0.2 | Panthers -0.3 | Titans -2.2 | -0.8 | -0.8 |
| Packers | 22.5 | -1.0 | BYE - | Rams 0.3 | Saints 0.7 | Bills -0.8 | Dolphins -0.1 | Bears -1.1 | Texans -5.5 | -0.7 | -2.2 |
| Panthers | 20.8 | 0.5 | Ravens 0.7 | Buccaneers -4.2 | Vikings 1.3 | Saints 0.6 | Bengals 0.6 | Steelers -0.8 | Seahawks 1.8 | 0.2 | 0.5 |
| Cardinals | 18.0 | -0.5 | Chiefs -0.8 | Commanders -0.2 | Eagles 1.0 | BYE - | Jets -0.3 | Saints 0.6 | Raiders -1.2 | 0.0 | -0.3 |
| Giants | 19.8 | -0.3 | Jaguars 1.8 | Colts 1.5 | 49ers 0.0 | Seahawks 0.7 | Browns 0.1 | Lions -1.1 | Cowboys 0.4 | 0.1 | -0.2 |
| Texans | 22.1 | 2.9 | Colts 3.9 | Ravens 4.5 | Steelers 0.0 | Commanders -0.9 | Jaguars 4.7 | Eagles 0.6 | Packers -3.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| Seahawks | 25.3 | 0.3 | BYE - | 49ers -1.1 | Cowboys -4.1 | Giants 1.0 | Eagles 0.2 | Rams 1.9 | Panthers -0.9 | 0.0 | 0.4 |
| Titans | 18.5 | 0.0 | Cowboys 1.6 | Jaguars -0.5 | Commanders -0.8 | Lions 2.8 | Colts -0.3 | Raiders 0.4 | Steelers -0.3 | 0.3 | -0.1 |
| Bears | 21.2 | -1.2 | Saints -0.3 | Lions 2.0 | Jaguars 0.2 | Dolphins -2.1 | Bills -2.2 | Packers -0.2 | Lions 0.9 | -0.8 | -0.5 |
| Commanders | 20.2 | 1.4 | Bengals -3.5 | Cardinals 1.8 | Titans -2.4 | Texans -0.3 | Falcons 1.5 | Vikings 2.6 | Jaguars -0.3 | 0.3 | 1.3 |
| 49ers | 21.6 | 1.0 | Vikings 2.9 | Seahawks 1.8 | Giants -0.6 | Rams 1.1 | Chargers 2.6 | Chiefs -0.1 | Eagles 0.5 | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| Cowboys | 26.3 | 0.1 | Titans 0.7 | Eagles 2.2 | Seahawks -4.8 | BYE - | Rams 0.3 | Jaguars 2.2 | Giants 1.7 | -0.1 | 1.4 |
| Bills | 20.3 | 1.5 | Dolphins 0.2 | Chiefs 1.6 | Patriots 0.7 | Packers -0.4 | Bears 1.1 | Broncos 0.1 | Dolphins -1.3 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| Rams | 26.3 | -0.6 | BYE - | Packers 1.8 | Chiefs 3.4 | 49ers -0.8 | Cowboys 1.4 | Seahawks 1.1 | Buccaneers -1.8 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Jaguars | 22.4 | 0.0 | Giants -1.9 | Titans -1.7 | Bears -0.8 | Steelers -4.5 | Texans 0.7 | Cowboys -0.2 | Commanders -1.3 | -0.9 | -0.3 |
| Browns | 16.1 | -0.5 | BYE - | Raiders -1.4 | Bengals 1.0 | Falcons 0.9 | Giants 0.0 | Ravens 0.2 | Colts 0.0 | -0.1 | 0.1 |
| Dolphins | 18.2 | -0.5 | Bills -1.4 | Jets -1.7 | Broncos 0.1 | Bears -0.7 | Packers -0.8 | Chargers -0.4 | Bills -0.3 | -0.6 | -0.5 |
| Patriots | 23.4 | 0.1 | BYE - | Chargers 2.4 | Bills 1.2 | Vikings 1.6 | Chiefs -3.4 | Jets -1.1 | Broncos 2.3 | 0.5 | -0.7 |
| Falcons | 19.4 | -1.1 | BYE - | Vikings 0.5 | Lions 3.8 | Browns -1.9 | Commanders -2.3 | Buccaneers 1.1 | Saints 2.7 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Jets | 18.0 | 0.6 | Chargers 2.9 | Dolphins -1.0 | BYE - | Broncos 1.7 | Cardinals 1.8 | Patriots 2.1 | Vikings 2.1 | 1.0 | 2.0 |
| Chiefs | 23.1 | 0.1 | Cardinals 0.7 | Bills 0.4 | Rams 2.5 | Bengals -0.7 | Patriots -1.8 | 49ers 0.7 | Chargers 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.6 |
| Broncos | 24.6 | 0.2 | Raiders 0.1 | Steelers -0.1 | Dolphins 1.2 | Jets -1.0 | Raiders 0.4 | Bills 1.3 | Patriots 1.3 | 0.8 | 1.0 |
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