Week 3
Matchup Bonuses can help you predict if a fantasy player will score more or less than usual. We first model the team "Baseline", which represents the fantasy points expected from all team players at the given position. The rest of the table indicates the weekly deviations from this baseline-- i.e. the "matchup bonus". The AVG column therefore represents the rest-of-season strength of schedule.
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Baseline
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3
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5
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6
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7
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8
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9
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10
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11
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12
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17
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AVG
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Playoffs
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chiefs | 30.8 | 1.0 | Dolphins 3.4 | Raiders -0.5 | BYE - | Chargers 0.3 | Seahawks -2.9 | Broncos 0.8 | Jets -1.0 | Falcons -0.8 | Cardinals -0.2 | Bills 0.6 | Rams -1.6 | Bengals -2.4 | Patriots -1.7 | 49ers 0.0 | Chargers 0.1 | -0.4 | -0.5 |
| Browns | 19.9 | 0.6 | Panthers 2.1 | Steelers 2.0 | Jets -1.2 | Ravens -0.4 | Titans 0.7 | Steelers 1.0 | Saints 1.0 | Texans -0.4 | BYE - | Raiders -0.4 | Bengals -0.8 | Falcons -0.4 | Giants 1.0 | Ravens -1.1 | Colts 3.0 | 0.4 | 1.0 |
| Texans | 22.7 | 0.1 | Colts 1.9 | Cowboys 0.7 | Titans -0.4 | Jaguars -2.0 | Giants 1.3 | BYE - | Chargers -1.2 | Browns -2.4 | Colts 2.7 | Ravens -0.6 | Steelers 0.2 | Commanders -2.9 | Jaguars -1.1 | Eagles -1.3 | Packers -1.6 | -0.5 | -1.3 |
| Ravens | 26.8 | 0.1 | Cowboys 1.7 | Titans 1.2 | Falcons -0.8 | Browns -1.8 | Bengals -1.8 | Bills -0.3 | Jaguars -0.9 | Chargers -0.1 | Panthers 1.7 | Texans -0.9 | BYE - | Buccaneers -0.5 | Steelers 0.6 | Browns -0.3 | Bengals -2.6 | -0.4 | -0.8 |
| Raiders | 24.9 | 1.7 | Saints 1.6 | Chiefs 1.3 | Patriots 0.2 | Bills 3.9 | Rams 1.6 | Jets -0.3 | 49ers 0.6 | Seahawks 0.4 | Broncos 2.4 | Browns 0.0 | BYE - | Chargers 3.2 | Broncos 4.6 | Titans 4.4 | Cardinals 1.7 | 1.8 | 3.5 |
| Jets | 23.3 | 0.4 | Lions 1.3 | Bears 0.4 | Browns 0.4 | Patriots -0.4 | Dolphins 4.7 | Raiders 0.6 | Chiefs -0.3 | Bills 2.1 | Chargers 1.3 | Dolphins 3.3 | BYE - | Broncos 2.3 | Cardinals 0.6 | Patriots 0.0 | Vikings -0.2 | 1.1 | 0.1 |
| Eagles | 20.6 | 0.4 | Bears 1.2 | Rams -1.4 | Jaguars -0.9 | Panthers 2.7 | Cowboys 0.4 | Commanders -1.7 | Giants 1.7 | BYE - | Steelers 1.7 | Cowboys 0.7 | Cardinals -0.6 | Colts 2.8 | Seahawks -1.4 | Texans 0.2 | 49ers -0.4 | 0.4 | -0.5 |
| Chargers | 21.7 | -0.2 | Bills 1.0 | Seahawks -2.4 | Broncos 1.7 | Chiefs -1.3 | BYE - | Rams -1.7 | Texans 0.0 | Ravens -1.7 | Jets -1.2 | Patriots -0.2 | Buccaneers -1.6 | Raiders -1.3 | 49ers 0.3 | Dolphins 2.4 | Chiefs -0.5 | -0.5 | 0.7 |
| Cardinals | 22.8 | 1.4 | 49ers 1.0 | Giants 1.1 | Lions 3.6 | Rams -0.1 | Broncos 2.8 | Cowboys 1.5 | Seahawks -1.2 | Rams 0.2 | Chiefs 0.0 | Commanders 0.8 | Eagles 2.0 | BYE - | Jets 0.1 | Saints 2.0 | Raiders 0.8 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Titans | 21.2 | 0.6 | Giants 0.8 | Ravens -0.8 | Texans -0.3 | Colts 2.8 | Browns -0.3 | Bengals -1.1 | BYE - | Jaguars -0.3 | Cowboys 1.1 | Jaguars -0.9 | Commanders -0.7 | Lions 1.9 | Colts 3.0 | Raiders 0.0 | Steelers 1.9 | 0.5 | 1.6 |
| Bengals | 23.4 | 1.4 | Steelers 0.7 | Jaguars 0.0 | Dolphins 3.6 | BYE - | Ravens -1.1 | Titans 2.0 | Falcons 0.6 | Steelers 2.1 | Commanders -1.8 | Saints 2.2 | Browns -0.4 | Chiefs -0.3 | Panthers 2.6 | Colts 2.9 | Ravens 0.3 | 1.0 | 1.9 |
| Packers | 19.5 | 0.4 | Falcons 0.4 | Buccaneers -1.0 | Bears 0.8 | Cowboys 1.4 | Lions 2.1 | Panthers 3.4 | Patriots -0.8 | Vikings -1.3 | BYE - | Rams -1.2 | Saints 1.2 | Bills 1.2 | Dolphins 4.5 | Bears 0.3 | Texans -0.8 | 0.7 | 1.3 |
| Vikings | 22.2 | 2.4 | Buccaneers 0.4 | Dolphins 5.2 | Saints 1.5 | BYE - | Colts 4.3 | Lions 2.3 | Bills 1.5 | Packers 0.5 | 49ers 0.3 | Falcons 0.3 | Panthers 4.1 | Patriots -0.6 | Lions 3.6 | Commanders 1.0 | Jets -1.2 | 1.7 | 1.1 |
| Lions | 26.9 | 1.1 | Jets 0.4 | Panthers 2.6 | Cardinals 0.2 | BYE - | Packers 2.3 | Vikings 0.1 | Dolphins 3.9 | Patriots -1.0 | Buccaneers 0.7 | Bears 2.0 | Falcons 0.1 | Titans 2.7 | Vikings -1.2 | Giants 2.2 | Bears 0.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| Saints | 21.4 | 0.1 | Raiders 0.2 | Falcons -0.5 | Vikings -0.2 | Giants 0.8 | Steelers 1.1 | BYE - | Browns 0.6 | Panthers 3.9 | Bears -0.2 | Bengals -2.4 | Packers 1.7 | Panthers 1.8 | Buccaneers -1.8 | Cardinals 0.9 | Falcons -0.9 | 0.4 | -0.6 |
| Giants | 22.8 | -0.3 | Titans 0.1 | Cardinals -0.1 | Commanders -2.1 | Saints 0.8 | Texans -0.9 | BYE - | Eagles -1.3 | Commanders -1.3 | Jaguars -0.8 | Colts 2.1 | 49ers -0.4 | Seahawks -2.3 | Browns -0.9 | Lions 0.6 | Cowboys -0.2 | -0.5 | -0.2 |
| Falcons | 24.4 | 1.1 | Packers 0.1 | Saints 1.1 | Ravens 0.9 | Bears 2.4 | 49ers 2.0 | Buccaneers -0.4 | Bengals -1.0 | Chiefs 0.7 | BYE - | Vikings -1.0 | Lions 3.9 | Browns -0.3 | Commanders -1.2 | Buccaneers 0.9 | Saints 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.9 |
| Bills | 24.2 | -0.6 | Chargers 0.0 | Patriots -0.2 | Rams -1.6 | Raiders -0.4 | BYE - | Ravens 0.0 | Vikings -1.9 | Jets -1.8 | Dolphins 3.8 | Chiefs -0.1 | Patriots -1.3 | Packers 0.5 | Bears 0.9 | Broncos 0.9 | Dolphins 3.0 | 0.1 | 1.6 |
| Rams | 28.1 | -0.3 | Broncos -0.3 | Eagles -1.4 | Bills 0.8 | Cardinals -0.1 | Raiders -1.0 | Chargers 0.3 | Commanders -1.8 | Cardinals -1.0 | BYE - | Packers 0.8 | Chiefs 0.0 | 49ers -1.2 | Cowboys 0.7 | Seahawks -3.3 | Buccaneers -2.0 | -0.7 | -1.5 |
| Broncos | 24.2 | -0.2 | Rams -0.6 | 49ers 0.2 | Chargers 0.6 | Seahawks -1.1 | Cardinals 0.2 | Chiefs -0.3 | Panthers 2.4 | BYE - | Raiders -0.1 | Steelers 1.5 | Dolphins 4.9 | Jets -1.2 | Raiders -0.5 | Bills 1.6 | Patriots -0.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| Dolphins | 20.5 | -1.1 | Chiefs -0.7 | Vikings -1.4 | Bengals -1.3 | BYE - | Jets -1.8 | Patriots -0.6 | Lions 1.9 | Colts 2.4 | Bills 0.1 | Jets -1.2 | Broncos 1.2 | Bears 0.4 | Packers 0.2 | Chargers -0.2 | Bills 1.1 | 0.0 | 0.4 |
| Steelers | 22.2 | -0.1 | Bengals -0.7 | Browns -0.9 | Colts 2.2 | Buccaneers -0.9 | Saints 0.8 | Browns -0.7 | BYE - | Bengals -1.8 | Eagles -0.5 | Broncos 1.5 | Texans -0.3 | Jaguars -1.2 | Ravens -0.5 | Panthers 2.8 | Titans 0.6 | 0.0 | 1.0 |
| Cowboys | 23.2 | 0.4 | Ravens -1.0 | Texans 0.4 | Buccaneers 1.2 | Packers 1.0 | Eagles -0.7 | Cardinals 1.2 | Colts 2.9 | 49ers 1.7 | Titans 2.8 | Eagles 1.9 | Seahawks -2.5 | BYE - | Rams -0.3 | Jaguars 1.0 | Giants 3.0 | 0.9 | 1.2 |
| 49ers | 31.1 | -0.9 | Cardinals -1.1 | Broncos 1.4 | Seahawks -2.7 | Commanders -1.1 | Falcons -0.7 | BYE - | Raiders -0.2 | Cowboys 0.4 | Vikings -0.9 | Seahawks -1.9 | Giants 0.5 | Rams -1.4 | Chargers 0.0 | Chiefs -1.7 | Eagles -0.2 | -0.7 | -0.6 |
| Jaguars | 24.4 | -0.3 | Patriots -1.1 | Bengals -1.4 | Eagles 0.4 | Texans 0.7 | BYE - | Colts 3.0 | Ravens -0.5 | Titans 0.8 | Giants 0.7 | Titans 1.8 | Bears 0.4 | Steelers 1.6 | Texans 0.2 | Cowboys 0.9 | Commanders -0.1 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| Patriots | 23.4 | -0.9 | Jaguars -1.5 | Bills -0.2 | Raiders -0.5 | Jets -1.2 | Bears -0.1 | Dolphins 3.1 | Packers 0.7 | Lions 2.3 | BYE - | Chargers 0.4 | Bills 1.4 | Vikings -1.0 | Chiefs -2.0 | Jets -2.5 | Broncos 1.6 | 0.0 | -1.0 |
| Colts | 28.3 | 0.2 | Texans -1.6 | Commanders -0.6 | Steelers 0.7 | Titans 2.4 | Vikings -1.5 | Jaguars -1.5 | Cowboys 1.8 | Dolphins 4.9 | Texans -0.1 | Giants 2.8 | BYE - | Eagles -0.8 | Titans 0.4 | Bengals -0.5 | Browns -1.1 | 0.4 | -0.4 |
| Panthers | 25.7 | -0.8 | Browns -2.1 | Lions 1.6 | BYE - | Eagles -1.9 | Buccaneers -0.7 | Packers -0.9 | Broncos 0.9 | Saints 0.7 | Ravens -1.2 | Buccaneers -3.0 | Vikings -2.8 | Saints 0.9 | Bengals -1.9 | Steelers 0.1 | Seahawks -3.0 | -0.9 | -1.6 |
| Seahawks | 24.7 | 0.1 | Commanders -2.3 | Chargers 0.6 | 49ers 0.7 | Broncos 1.5 | Chiefs 1.0 | Bears 1.1 | Cardinals 1.0 | Raiders 0.5 | BYE - | 49ers 0.6 | Cowboys 1.2 | Giants 2.6 | Eagles 0.6 | Rams 0.3 | Panthers 2.8 | 0.9 | 1.2 |
| Buccaneers | 22.8 | 0.7 | Vikings -2.8 | Packers 1.7 | Cowboys 1.4 | Steelers 2.6 | Panthers 2.6 | Falcons 0.1 | Bears 0.3 | BYE - | Lions 2.6 | Panthers 2.7 | Chargers 1.6 | Ravens -1.0 | Saints 2.4 | Falcons 0.0 | Rams -0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| Commanders | 23.8 | -0.2 | Seahawks -3.1 | Colts 2.7 | Giants 0.9 | 49ers -1.3 | BYE - | Eagles -0.5 | Rams -1.5 | Giants 0.2 | Bengals -2.4 | Cardinals -0.8 | Titans -0.5 | Texans -1.0 | Falcons -1.1 | Vikings -2.0 | Jaguars -2.1 | -0.9 | -1.7 |
| Bears | 27.8 | -2.4 | Eagles -3.1 | Jets -2.6 | Packers -1.7 | Falcons -2.3 | Patriots -2.6 | Seahawks -4.5 | Buccaneers -1.8 | BYE - | Saints 0.4 | Lions 0.6 | Jaguars -1.9 | Dolphins 1.8 | Bills -1.8 | Packers -0.5 | Lions 0.8 | -1.4 | -0.5 |
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