Week 3

Matchup Bonuses can help you predict if a fantasy player will score more or less than usual. We first model the team "Baseline", which represents the fantasy points expected from all team players at the given position. The rest of the table indicates the weekly deviations from this baseline-- i.e. the "matchup bonus". The AVG column therefore represents the rest-of-season strength of schedule.

Player/Team
Baseline
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AVG
Playoffs
Chiefs 30.8 1.0 3.4 -0.5 - 0.3 -2.9 0.8 -1.0 -0.8 -0.2 0.6 -1.6 -2.4 -1.7 0.0 0.1 -0.4 -0.5
Browns 19.9 0.6 2.1 2.0 -1.2 -0.4 0.7 1.0 1.0 -0.4 - -0.4 -0.8 -0.4 1.0 -1.1 3.0 0.4 1.0
Texans 22.7 0.1 1.9 0.7 -0.4 -2.0 1.3 - -1.2 -2.4 2.7 -0.6 0.2 -2.9 -1.1 -1.3 -1.6 -0.5 -1.3
Ravens 26.8 0.1 1.7 1.2 -0.8 -1.8 -1.8 -0.3 -0.9 -0.1 1.7 -0.9 - -0.5 0.6 -0.3 -2.6 -0.4 -0.8
Raiders 24.9 1.7 1.6 1.3 0.2 3.9 1.6 -0.3 0.6 0.4 2.4 0.0 - 3.2 4.6 4.4 1.7 1.8 3.5
Jets 23.3 0.4 1.3 0.4 0.4 -0.4 4.7 0.6 -0.3 2.1 1.3 3.3 - 2.3 0.6 0.0 -0.2 1.1 0.1
Eagles 20.6 0.4 1.2 -1.4 -0.9 2.7 0.4 -1.7 1.7 - 1.7 0.7 -0.6 2.8 -1.4 0.2 -0.4 0.4 -0.5
Chargers 21.7 -0.2 1.0 -2.4 1.7 -1.3 - -1.7 0.0 -1.7 -1.2 -0.2 -1.6 -1.3 0.3 2.4 -0.5 -0.5 0.7
Cardinals 22.8 1.4 1.0 1.1 3.6 -0.1 2.8 1.5 -1.2 0.2 0.0 0.8 2.0 - 0.1 2.0 0.8 1.0 1.0
Titans 21.2 0.6 0.8 -0.8 -0.3 2.8 -0.3 -1.1 - -0.3 1.1 -0.9 -0.7 1.9 3.0 0.0 1.9 0.5 1.6
Bengals 23.4 1.4 0.7 0.0 3.6 - -1.1 2.0 0.6 2.1 -1.8 2.2 -0.4 -0.3 2.6 2.9 0.3 1.0 1.9
Packers 19.5 0.4 0.4 -1.0 0.8 1.4 2.1 3.4 -0.8 -1.3 - -1.2 1.2 1.2 4.5 0.3 -0.8 0.7 1.3
Vikings 22.2 2.4 0.4 5.2 1.5 - 4.3 2.3 1.5 0.5 0.3 0.3 4.1 -0.6 3.6 1.0 -1.2 1.7 1.1
Lions 26.9 1.1 0.4 2.6 0.2 - 2.3 0.1 3.9 -1.0 0.7 2.0 0.1 2.7 -1.2 2.2 0.6 1.1 0.5
Saints 21.4 0.1 0.2 -0.5 -0.2 0.8 1.1 - 0.6 3.9 -0.2 -2.4 1.7 1.8 -1.8 0.9 -0.9 0.4 -0.6
Giants 22.8 -0.3 0.1 -0.1 -2.1 0.8 -0.9 - -1.3 -1.3 -0.8 2.1 -0.4 -2.3 -0.9 0.6 -0.2 -0.5 -0.2
Falcons 24.4 1.1 0.1 1.1 0.9 2.4 2.0 -0.4 -1.0 0.7 - -1.0 3.9 -0.3 -1.2 0.9 3.1 0.8 0.9
Bills 24.2 -0.6 0.0 -0.2 -1.6 -0.4 - 0.0 -1.9 -1.8 3.8 -0.1 -1.3 0.5 0.9 0.9 3.0 0.1 1.6
Rams 28.1 -0.3 -0.3 -1.4 0.8 -0.1 -1.0 0.3 -1.8 -1.0 - 0.8 0.0 -1.2 0.7 -3.3 -2.0 -0.7 -1.5
Broncos 24.2 -0.2 -0.6 0.2 0.6 -1.1 0.2 -0.3 2.4 - -0.1 1.5 4.9 -1.2 -0.5 1.6 -0.7 0.5 0.1
Dolphins 20.5 -1.1 -0.7 -1.4 -1.3 - -1.8 -0.6 1.9 2.4 0.1 -1.2 1.2 0.4 0.2 -0.2 1.1 0.0 0.4
Steelers 22.2 -0.1 -0.7 -0.9 2.2 -0.9 0.8 -0.7 - -1.8 -0.5 1.5 -0.3 -1.2 -0.5 2.8 0.6 0.0 1.0
Cowboys 23.2 0.4 -1.0 0.4 1.2 1.0 -0.7 1.2 2.9 1.7 2.8 1.9 -2.5 - -0.3 1.0 3.0 0.9 1.2
49ers 31.1 -0.9 -1.1 1.4 -2.7 -1.1 -0.7 - -0.2 0.4 -0.9 -1.9 0.5 -1.4 0.0 -1.7 -0.2 -0.7 -0.6
Jaguars 24.4 -0.3 -1.1 -1.4 0.4 0.7 - 3.0 -0.5 0.8 0.7 1.8 0.4 1.6 0.2 0.9 -0.1 0.5 0.3
Patriots 23.4 -0.9 -1.5 -0.2 -0.5 -1.2 -0.1 3.1 0.7 2.3 - 0.4 1.4 -1.0 -2.0 -2.5 1.6 0.0 -1.0
Colts 28.3 0.2 -1.6 -0.6 0.7 2.4 -1.5 -1.5 1.8 4.9 -0.1 2.8 - -0.8 0.4 -0.5 -1.1 0.4 -0.4
Panthers 25.7 -0.8 -2.1 1.6 - -1.9 -0.7 -0.9 0.9 0.7 -1.2 -3.0 -2.8 0.9 -1.9 0.1 -3.0 -0.9 -1.6
Seahawks 24.7 0.1 -2.3 0.6 0.7 1.5 1.0 1.1 1.0 0.5 - 0.6 1.2 2.6 0.6 0.3 2.8 0.9 1.2
Buccaneers 22.8 0.7 -2.8 1.7 1.4 2.6 2.6 0.1 0.3 - 2.6 2.7 1.6 -1.0 2.4 0.0 -0.9 1.0 0.5
Commanders 23.8 -0.2 -3.1 2.7 0.9 -1.3 - -0.5 -1.5 0.2 -2.4 -0.8 -0.5 -1.0 -1.1 -2.0 -2.1 -0.9 -1.7
Bears 27.8 -2.4 -3.1 -2.6 -1.7 -2.3 -2.6 -4.5 -1.8 - 0.4 0.6 -1.9 1.8 -1.8 -0.5 0.8 -1.4 -0.5

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