Week 1
Matchup Bonuses can help you predict if a fantasy player will score more or less than usual. We first model the team "Baseline", which represents the fantasy points expected from all team players at the given position. The rest of the table indicates the weekly deviations from this baseline-- i.e. the "matchup bonus". The AVG column therefore represents the rest-of-season strength of schedule.
| Player/Team |
Baseline
|
Next 4
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11
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12
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13
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14
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15
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16
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17
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AVG
|
Playoffs
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chargers | 17.2 | 1.5 | Jets 1.5 | Patriots 2.2 | Buccaneers -0.6 | Raiders 0.7 | 49ers 1.2 | Dolphins 1.6 | Chiefs 1.4 | 1.1 | 1.4 |
| Lions | 19.4 | -0.1 | Buccaneers -1.0 | Bears 1.4 | Falcons 0.4 | Titans 0.4 | Vikings 0.5 | Giants -0.4 | Bears -0.3 | 0.3 | -0.1 |
| Ravens | 18.5 | 1.0 | Panthers -0.2 | Texans -1.0 | BYE - | Buccaneers -0.3 | Steelers 0.6 | Browns 1.5 | Bengals -0.6 | 0.4 | 0.5 |
| Raiders | 18.0 | -0.5 | Broncos -1.2 | Browns -1.2 | BYE - | Chargers -1.0 | Broncos 0.0 | Titans -0.4 | Cardinals 0.2 | -0.7 | -0.1 |
| Steelers | 19.6 | -0.4 | Eagles -1.1 | Broncos -0.7 | Texans -1.3 | Jaguars -0.8 | Ravens -0.4 | Panthers -0.4 | Titans -1.3 | -0.8 | -0.7 |
| Bengals | 18.2 | 0.6 | Commanders -1.1 | Saints 1.1 | Browns 0.5 | Chiefs 0.4 | Panthers -0.2 | Colts 0.3 | Ravens 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| Eagles | 17.6 | -0.6 | Steelers 0.6 | Cowboys -1.1 | Cardinals 0.8 | Colts -0.4 | Seahawks 0.4 | Texans -1.1 | 49ers -1.6 | -0.5 | -0.7 |
| Seahawks | 18.4 | 0.3 | BYE - | 49ers -1.1 | Cowboys -0.5 | Giants 0.8 | Eagles 0.4 | Rams 0.8 | Panthers -0.4 | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| Jaguars | 18.1 | -0.3 | Giants -1.6 | Titans -0.5 | Bears -0.3 | Steelers -0.3 | Texans -1.5 | Cowboys -1.4 | Commanders -0.7 | -0.7 | -1.2 |
| Packers | 18.3 | -0.6 | BYE - | Rams -1.2 | Saints -0.8 | Bills -0.5 | Dolphins 1.2 | Bears -0.5 | Texans -2.1 | -0.4 | -0.5 |
| Chiefs | 17.4 | 0.8 | Cardinals 1.9 | Bills 0.0 | Rams 0.0 | Bengals -1.0 | Patriots 0.6 | 49ers 0.1 | Chargers -0.1 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| Vikings | 17.7 | -0.2 | 49ers -1.5 | Falcons 0.8 | Panthers 0.1 | Patriots -0.6 | Lions 1.3 | Commanders -0.1 | Jets -1.2 | -0.2 | 0.0 |
| Titans | 17.9 | -0.4 | Cowboys -0.9 | Jaguars -0.6 | Commanders -0.8 | Lions 0.3 | Colts -0.4 | Raiders -0.5 | Steelers 0.0 | -0.5 | -0.3 |
| Saints | 16.5 | 0.2 | Bears 0.0 | Bengals -1.4 | Packers 1.9 | Panthers -0.8 | Buccaneers -1.9 | Cardinals 2.1 | Falcons 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| Cowboys | 17.9 | -0.3 | Titans 0.5 | Eagles 1.4 | Seahawks -1.1 | BYE - | Rams -0.7 | Jaguars 1.5 | Giants 0.8 | 0.0 | 0.6 |
| Buccaneers | 18.5 | 1.5 | Lions 1.9 | Panthers 0.1 | Chargers 0.7 | Ravens 0.2 | Saints 1.5 | Falcons 1.7 | Rams 0.9 | 1.1 | 1.4 |
| Bears | 18.3 | 0.1 | Saints -0.3 | Lions 0.2 | Jaguars 0.4 | Dolphins 0.0 | Bills -1.6 | Packers 0.5 | Lions 0.8 | -0.2 | -0.1 |
| Panthers | 18.4 | 0.1 | Ravens 0.0 | Buccaneers -1.9 | Vikings 0.4 | Saints 0.0 | Bengals -0.4 | Steelers -0.3 | Seahawks 0.4 | -0.2 | -0.1 |
| Rams | 19.1 | 0.3 | BYE - | Packers 1.8 | Chiefs 1.1 | 49ers -0.5 | Cowboys 0.6 | Seahawks 0.6 | Buccaneers -1.4 | 0.5 | -0.1 |
| Colts | 18.8 | -0.5 | Texans -1.2 | Giants 1.0 | BYE - | Eagles -0.4 | Titans -1.2 | Bengals 0.4 | Browns -0.3 | -0.1 | -0.4 |
| Texans | 17.6 | 0.8 | Colts 1.5 | Ravens 1.8 | Steelers 0.4 | Commanders -0.7 | Jaguars 2.3 | Eagles 0.4 | Packers 0.0 | 0.7 | 0.9 |
| Commanders | 17.3 | 0.0 | Bengals -0.8 | Cardinals 1.5 | Titans -1.2 | Texans -0.9 | Falcons 1.5 | Vikings 1.2 | Jaguars -0.1 | 0.1 | 0.9 |
| Giants | 18.4 | 0.1 | Jaguars 1.4 | Colts -0.3 | 49ers -0.6 | Seahawks -0.4 | Browns 0.6 | Lions 0.3 | Cowboys -1.2 | -0.2 | -0.1 |
| 49ers | 20.0 | 1.2 | Vikings 2.3 | Seahawks 1.2 | Giants -0.2 | Rams 0.5 | Chargers 0.0 | Chiefs -0.7 | Eagles 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| Patriots | 17.6 | 0.2 | BYE - | Chargers -0.3 | Bills 0.9 | Vikings 2.0 | Chiefs -1.1 | Jets -0.4 | Broncos 1.0 | 0.6 | -0.2 |
| Bills | 19.2 | 0.7 | Dolphins 1.8 | Chiefs 0.3 | Patriots 0.2 | Packers 0.5 | Bears 1.5 | Broncos -0.5 | Dolphins 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Falcons | 20.1 | -0.7 | BYE - | Vikings 0.0 | Lions 1.4 | Browns -0.9 | Commanders -2.0 | Buccaneers -1.2 | Saints 0.4 | -0.5 | -0.9 |
| Browns | 17.8 | -1.1 | BYE - | Raiders -0.7 | Bengals -0.7 | Falcons 0.4 | Giants -1.1 | Ravens -1.2 | Colts -0.7 | -0.9 | -1.0 |
| Dolphins | 19.9 | -1.5 | Bills -1.7 | Jets -1.3 | Broncos -1.5 | Bears -0.6 | Packers -0.8 | Chargers -1.8 | Bills -0.7 | -1.2 | -1.1 |
| Broncos | 17.9 | 0.2 | Raiders 1.0 | Steelers 0.7 | Dolphins 2.2 | Jets -0.3 | Raiders 0.2 | Bills 1.0 | Patriots 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Jets | 17.2 | -0.1 | Chargers -0.7 | Dolphins 0.1 | BYE - | Broncos -0.1 | Cardinals 1.0 | Patriots 0.5 | Vikings 1.5 | 0.2 | 1.0 |
| Cardinals | 17.8 | -1.9 | Chiefs -2.1 | Commanders -1.6 | Eagles -0.5 | BYE - | Jets -1.3 | Saints -1.5 | Raiders -1.2 | -1.5 | -1.3 |
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