Week 1
Matchup Bonuses can help you predict if a fantasy player will score more or less than usual. We first model the team "Baseline", which represents the fantasy points expected from all team players at the given position. The rest of the table indicates the weekly deviations from this baseline-- i.e. the "matchup bonus". The AVG column therefore represents the rest-of-season strength of schedule.
| Player/Team |
Baseline
|
Next 4
|
11
|
12
|
13
|
14
|
15
|
16
|
17
|
AVG
|
Playoffs
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chargers | 11.1 | 0.9 | Jets 1.3 | Patriots 1.8 | Buccaneers -0.3 | Raiders 0.9 | 49ers 1.6 | Dolphins 0.5 | Chiefs 1.6 | 0.9 | 1.2 |
| Lions | 11.0 | -0.2 | Buccaneers -0.1 | Bears 1.1 | Falcons 0.6 | Titans 0.7 | Vikings 0.3 | Giants 0.1 | Bears -0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| Ravens | 13.8 | 0.7 | Panthers -0.3 | Texans 0.2 | BYE - | Buccaneers -0.2 | Steelers 0.0 | Browns 0.7 | Bengals -0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| Raiders | 13.9 | 0.4 | Broncos -0.4 | Browns -0.4 | BYE - | Chargers 0.4 | Broncos 0.5 | Titans 0.7 | Cardinals 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.7 |
| Eagles | 12.0 | -0.5 | Steelers -0.1 | Cowboys -0.1 | Cardinals 0.6 | Colts -0.4 | Seahawks 0.1 | Texans -0.4 | 49ers -0.6 | -0.3 | -0.3 |
| Steelers | 14.0 | -0.3 | Eagles -0.9 | Broncos -0.4 | Texans -0.4 | Jaguars -0.8 | Ravens -0.1 | Panthers -0.3 | Titans -0.6 | -0.5 | -0.3 |
| Bengals | 13.3 | 0.2 | Commanders -0.9 | Saints 0.5 | Browns 0.1 | Chiefs 0.2 | Panthers -0.4 | Colts 0.5 | Ravens 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Vikings | 10.9 | -0.1 | 49ers -0.3 | Falcons 1.1 | Panthers 0.7 | Patriots -0.2 | Lions 1.1 | Commanders 0.8 | Jets -0.7 | 0.2 | 0.4 |
| Saints | 13.3 | 0.5 | Bears 0.1 | Bengals -0.4 | Packers 1.5 | Panthers -0.4 | Buccaneers -0.8 | Cardinals 1.9 | Falcons 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.7 |
| Buccaneers | 10.5 | 0.6 | Lions 1.0 | Panthers -0.2 | Chargers 0.4 | Ravens 0.1 | Saints 0.9 | Falcons 1.4 | Rams 0.7 | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| Packers | 11.7 | -0.7 | BYE - | Rams -0.3 | Saints -0.2 | Bills -0.3 | Dolphins 0.2 | Bears -0.5 | Texans -1.3 | -0.4 | -0.5 |
| Colts | 12.9 | -0.1 | Texans 0.1 | Giants 1.2 | BYE - | Eagles -0.7 | Titans -1.0 | Bengals 0.9 | Browns -0.3 | 0.1 | -0.1 |
| Texans | 13.0 | 0.9 | Colts 1.4 | Ravens 1.7 | Steelers 0.1 | Commanders -0.4 | Jaguars 1.6 | Eagles 0.1 | Packers -0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| Jaguars | 11.6 | -0.4 | Giants -1.0 | Titans -0.4 | Bears -0.4 | Steelers -0.5 | Texans -0.1 | Cowboys -0.4 | Commanders -0.5 | -0.5 | -0.3 |
| Titans | 13.1 | -0.2 | Cowboys 0.0 | Jaguars -0.7 | Commanders -0.3 | Lions 0.6 | Colts -0.2 | Raiders 0.5 | Steelers 0.1 | -0.1 | 0.1 |
| Panthers | 10.7 | 0.0 | Ravens 0.1 | Buccaneers -1.1 | Vikings 0.5 | Saints 0.1 | Bengals 0.0 | Steelers -0.2 | Seahawks 0.2 | -0.1 | 0.0 |
| Seahawks | 12.4 | -0.1 | BYE - | 49ers -0.8 | Cowboys -0.7 | Giants 0.0 | Eagles -0.1 | Rams 0.5 | Panthers -0.6 | -0.1 | -0.1 |
| Cowboys | 12.8 | -0.3 | Titans 0.6 | Eagles 0.9 | Seahawks -1.3 | BYE - | Rams -0.2 | Jaguars 0.8 | Giants 0.5 | -0.1 | 0.3 |
| Bears | 13.1 | -0.4 | Saints -0.5 | Lions 0.3 | Jaguars -0.4 | Dolphins -0.5 | Bills -1.0 | Packers -0.2 | Lions -0.1 | -0.4 | -0.4 |
| Chiefs | 13.8 | 0.2 | Cardinals 0.8 | Bills 0.0 | Rams 0.7 | Bengals -0.5 | Patriots 0.1 | 49ers 0.3 | Chargers 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.3 |
| 49ers | 14.3 | 0.3 | Vikings 1.0 | Seahawks 0.3 | Giants -0.4 | Rams 0.2 | Chargers 0.5 | Chiefs -0.5 | Eagles 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| Rams | 15.4 | -0.3 | BYE - | Packers 0.7 | Chiefs 0.7 | 49ers -0.4 | Cowboys 0.4 | Seahawks -0.2 | Buccaneers -1.3 | 0.1 | -0.4 |
| Dolphins | 11.7 | -0.4 | Bills -0.7 | Jets -0.8 | Broncos -0.7 | Bears -0.3 | Packers -0.6 | Chargers -0.7 | Bills -0.1 | -0.5 | -0.5 |
| Giants | 12.2 | 0.1 | Jaguars 0.3 | Colts 0.4 | 49ers 0.0 | Seahawks -0.4 | Browns 0.3 | Lions 0.2 | Cowboys -0.2 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
| Commanders | 12.3 | 0.2 | Bengals -0.4 | Cardinals 1.3 | Titans -0.6 | Texans -0.3 | Falcons 0.8 | Vikings 1.0 | Jaguars -0.3 | 0.1 | 0.5 |
| Bills | 13.8 | 0.1 | Dolphins 0.4 | Chiefs 0.2 | Patriots -0.1 | Packers -0.3 | Bears 0.4 | Broncos -0.6 | Dolphins -0.3 | 0.0 | -0.2 |
| Cardinals | 16.5 | -0.7 | Chiefs -0.8 | Commanders -0.1 | Eagles 0.4 | BYE - | Jets -0.2 | Saints 0.0 | Raiders -0.3 | -0.3 | -0.2 |
| Jets | 11.7 | 0.0 | Chargers 0.6 | Dolphins -0.1 | BYE - | Broncos 0.1 | Cardinals 1.1 | Patriots 0.3 | Vikings 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.7 |
| Falcons | 13.8 | -0.4 | BYE - | Vikings 0.0 | Lions 0.8 | Browns -0.7 | Commanders -1.1 | Buccaneers -0.1 | Saints 0.9 | 0.0 | -0.1 |
| Browns | 14.5 | -0.5 | BYE - | Raiders -0.4 | Bengals 0.1 | Falcons 0.4 | Giants -0.2 | Ravens -0.3 | Colts -0.1 | -0.2 | -0.2 |
| Broncos | 11.8 | -0.1 | Raiders 0.1 | Steelers -0.2 | Dolphins 0.5 | Jets -0.6 | Raiders 0.5 | Bills 0.5 | Patriots 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.4 |
| Patriots | 12.9 | -0.4 | BYE - | Chargers 0.2 | Bills 0.4 | Vikings 0.4 | Chiefs -0.7 | Jets -0.7 | Broncos 0.3 | 0.0 | -0.4 |
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