Matchup Bonuses can help you predict if a fantasy player will score more or less than usual. We first model the team "Baseline", which represents the fantasy points expected from all team players at the given position. The rest of the table indicates the weekly deviations from this baseline-- i.e. the "matchup bonus". The AVG column therefore represents the rest-of-season strength of schedule.
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Baseline
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Next 4
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11
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12
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13
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14
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15
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16
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17
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AVG
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Playoffs
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bears | 8.3 | 1.1 | Vikings 0.4 | Steelers 1.0 | Eagles -1.2 | Packers -0.2 | Browns 0.4 | Packers 0.2 | 49ers 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| Cowboys | 12.9 | 1.0 | Raiders -0.1 | Eagles 1.7 | Chiefs 0.2 | Lions 0.5 | Vikings 1.3 | Chargers 0.7 | Commanders 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Bengals | 10.0 | 0.4 | Steelers -0.2 | Patriots 0.3 | Ravens -0.2 | Bills -1.3 | Ravens 0.1 | Dolphins 0.1 | Cardinals 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.2 |
| Steelers | 14.4 | 0.9 | Bengals 2.1 | Bears 0.3 | Bills -1.2 | Ravens -0.3 | Dolphins 0.6 | Lions 1.4 | Browns 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.7 |
| Colts | 12.1 | -0.4 | BYE - | Chiefs -1.6 | Texans 0.3 | Jaguars 0.6 | Seahawks -0.1 | 49ers 0.9 | Jaguars 2.6 | 0.4 | 1.1 |
| 49ers | 11.9 | 0.1 | Cardinals 0.2 | Panthers 0.0 | Browns 0.7 | BYE - | Titans -0.7 | Colts 0.6 | Bears 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| Commanders | 11.3 | 0.4 | Dolphins 0.3 | BYE - | Broncos -1.1 | Vikings 0.7 | Giants 0.2 | Eagles -0.4 | Cowboys 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Ravens | 13.2 | 0.6 | Browns 0.1 | Jets 0.6 | Bengals 2.2 | Steelers 1.5 | Bengals 1.8 | Patriots 0.6 | Packers -0.1 | 0.9 | 0.8 |
| Rams | 9.5 | 0.3 | Seahawks 0.4 | Buccaneers 0.7 | Panthers 0.1 | Cardinals 0.8 | Lions 0.4 | Seahawks -0.5 | Falcons -0.7 | 0.1 | -0.3 |
| Chargers | 9.6 | 0.9 | Jaguars 0.5 | BYE - | Raiders -0.1 | Eagles 0.1 | Chiefs -0.1 | Cowboys 0.6 | Texans 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| Packers | 13.8 | 0.4 | Giants 1.4 | Vikings 0.3 | Lions 0.2 | Bears 0.5 | Broncos -0.6 | Bears 0.3 | Ravens 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| Chiefs | 13.9 | -0.1 | Broncos -1.5 | Colts 0.8 | Cowboys 0.9 | Texans -0.3 | Chargers -0.2 | Titans 0.2 | Broncos -0.3 | 0.0 | -0.1 |
| Raiders | 12.4 | 0.6 | Cowboys 0.9 | Browns 2.0 | Chargers -0.1 | Broncos -0.1 | Eagles -1.0 | Texans -0.2 | Giants 0.8 | 0.2 | -0.2 |
| Falcons | 10.1 | 0.7 | Panthers 0.9 | Saints 0.7 | Jets -0.4 | Seahawks 0.3 | Buccaneers -0.4 | Cardinals 0.5 | Rams 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| Dolphins | 10.5 | -0.3 | Commanders 0.3 | BYE - | Saints -0.2 | Jets -0.2 | Steelers 0.5 | Bengals 3.1 | Buccaneers 0.0 | 0.3 | 1.2 |
| Giants | 11.1 | 0.2 | Packers 0.2 | Lions 0.3 | Patriots -0.1 | BYE - | Commanders -0.2 | Vikings 0.5 | Raiders 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.3 |
| Lions | 12.1 | 0.3 | Eagles -0.6 | Giants 1.3 | Packers 1.2 | Cowboys 1.3 | Rams 0.3 | Steelers 2.0 | Vikings 0.7 | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| Buccaneers | 7.8 | -0.3 | Bills -1.1 | Rams 0.4 | Cardinals 1.1 | Saints 1.1 | Falcons -0.4 | Panthers 0.6 | Dolphins 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Jets | 9.4 | 0.0 | Patriots 0.3 | Ravens 0.1 | Falcons -0.5 | Dolphins 0.9 | Jaguars 0.6 | Saints 1.2 | Patriots 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Texans | 9.8 | 0.1 | Titans 0.1 | Bills -0.8 | Colts 0.9 | Chiefs -1.3 | Cardinals 0.9 | Raiders 0.8 | Chargers -0.3 | 0.2 | 0.5 |
| Eagles | 10.1 | 1.0 | Lions 1.9 | Cowboys 1.5 | Bears 1.4 | Chargers 0.5 | Raiders 2.2 | Commanders 0.9 | Bills -0.8 | 0.9 | 0.8 |
| Cardinals | 15.2 | 0.8 | 49ers 1.0 | Jaguars 1.4 | Buccaneers -0.4 | Rams 0.3 | Texans -0.1 | Falcons -0.3 | Bengals 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.4 |
| Vikings | 10.6 | 0.3 | Bears 1.2 | Packers -0.3 | Seahawks -0.5 | Commanders 1.1 | Cowboys 0.6 | Giants -0.2 | Lions 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| Titans | 10.6 | -0.6 | Texans -1.4 | Seahawks -0.1 | Jaguars 0.5 | Browns -0.3 | 49ers -0.2 | Chiefs -0.9 | Saints 0.4 | -0.3 | -0.2 |
| Seahawks | 11.3 | 0.3 | Rams 0.3 | Titans 0.5 | Vikings 0.5 | Falcons -0.5 | Colts 1.0 | Rams 0.0 | Panthers 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.4 |
| Jaguars | 10.1 | -0.2 | Chargers -0.4 | Cardinals 0.7 | Titans 0.3 | Colts 0.7 | Jets 0.6 | Broncos -1.0 | Colts 0.9 | 0.1 | 0.2 |
| Saints | 10.9 | -0.9 | BYE - | Falcons -1.6 | Dolphins -0.2 | Buccaneers -0.4 | Panthers 0.6 | Jets 0.5 | Titans 0.1 | -0.3 | 0.4 |
| Bills | 12.8 | -0.2 | Buccaneers 0.2 | Texans -0.1 | Steelers 0.9 | Bengals 1.9 | Patriots 0.1 | Browns -0.1 | Eagles -0.6 | 0.2 | -0.2 |
| Broncos | 10.3 | -0.5 | Chiefs -0.8 | BYE - | Commanders -0.7 | Raiders 0.6 | Packers 0.2 | Jaguars 0.9 | Chiefs -1.2 | -0.2 | 0.0 |
| Panthers | 9.8 | -0.4 | Falcons -1.0 | 49ers -0.2 | Rams 0.9 | BYE - | Saints 0.0 | Buccaneers 0.0 | Seahawks 0.0 | -0.1 | 0.0 |
| Patriots | 12.7 | 0.1 | Jets 0.4 | Bengals 1.6 | Giants 0.4 | BYE - | Bills -2.1 | Ravens -0.5 | Jets 0.1 | -0.2 | -0.8 |
| Browns | 14.2 | -0.4 | Ravens -0.2 | Raiders 0.1 | 49ers 0.0 | Titans 0.4 | Bears -0.1 | Bills -1.4 | Steelers 0.7 | -0.2 | -0.3 |
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