Matchup Bonuses can help you predict if a fantasy player will score more or less than usual. We first model the team "Baseline", which represents the fantasy points expected from all team players at the given position. The rest of the table indicates the weekly deviations from this baseline-- i.e. the "matchup bonus". The AVG column therefore represents the rest-of-season strength of schedule.
| Player/Team |
Baseline
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Next 4
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7
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8
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9
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10
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11
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12
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13
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14
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15
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16
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17
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AVG
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Playoffs
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chargers | 5.6 | -0.1 | Colts 1.3 | Vikings -0.2 | Titans -1.5 | Steelers -0.1 | Jaguars -1.7 | BYE - | Raiders -1.3 | Eagles -1.6 | Chiefs -2.9 | Cowboys -0.3 | Texans -2.7 | -1.1 | -2.0 |
| Lions | 10.0 | 0.9 | Buccaneers 1.2 | BYE - | Vikings 1.4 | Commanders 0.1 | Eagles -0.6 | Giants 2.0 | Packers 1.2 | Cowboys 0.9 | Rams -1.1 | Steelers 1.5 | Vikings 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| Packers | 9.2 | 0.4 | Cardinals 1.1 | Steelers -0.1 | Panthers 1.1 | Eagles -0.4 | Giants 1.0 | Vikings -0.4 | Lions -1.0 | Bears -0.9 | Broncos -3.1 | Bears -2.0 | Ravens -2.3 | -0.7 | -2.5 |
| Steelers | 10.4 | 1.2 | Bengals 1.1 | Packers 0.7 | Colts 1.2 | Chargers 1.7 | Bengals 2.0 | Bears -0.2 | Bills -2.2 | Ravens -0.3 | Dolphins 0.8 | Lions -0.2 | Browns 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.7 |
| Cowboys | 10.7 | 0.7 | Commanders 0.8 | Broncos -1.3 | Cardinals 2.5 | BYE - | Raiders 1.2 | Eagles 1.3 | Chiefs 1.1 | Lions 2.0 | Vikings 1.8 | Chargers 2.6 | Commanders 1.0 | 1.3 | 1.8 |
| Eagles | 11.0 | 0.1 | Vikings 0.7 | Giants -0.1 | BYE - | Packers -0.4 | Lions -0.4 | Cowboys 1.0 | Bears 0.1 | Chargers 1.2 | Raiders -0.1 | Commanders -0.6 | Bills -1.9 | 0.0 | -0.9 |
| Bengals | 7.1 | 0.6 | Steelers 0.4 | Jets 1.6 | Bears -0.2 | BYE - | Steelers 0.9 | Patriots 0.1 | Ravens 0.5 | Bills -1.7 | Ravens 0.6 | Dolphins 0.7 | Cardinals 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.9 |
| Broncos | 8.6 | 0.2 | Giants 0.4 | Cowboys 1.1 | Texans -1.0 | Raiders 0.4 | Chiefs -0.5 | BYE - | Commanders 0.2 | Raiders 1.1 | Packers 1.6 | Jaguars 0.7 | Chiefs -0.2 | 0.4 | 0.7 |
| Commanders | 7.5 | -1.0 | Cowboys 0.1 | Chiefs -1.7 | Seahawks -1.4 | Lions -0.9 | Dolphins -0.3 | BYE - | Broncos -2.3 | Vikings -0.2 | Giants 1.0 | Eagles -0.5 | Cowboys -0.3 | -0.6 | 0.1 |
| Panthers | 8.5 | 0.0 | Jets 0.1 | Bills -1.3 | Packers 0.1 | Saints 1.1 | Falcons -0.2 | 49ers -0.1 | Rams -0.8 | BYE - | Saints 1.4 | Buccaneers 1.1 | Seahawks -1.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 |
| Jets | 7.6 | 0.6 | Panthers 0.1 | Bengals 0.6 | BYE - | Browns 1.0 | Patriots -0.9 | Ravens 0.2 | Falcons -0.3 | Dolphins 1.9 | Jaguars 0.1 | Saints 1.6 | Patriots 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.7 |
| Cardinals | 10.8 | 0.1 | Packers 0.1 | BYE - | Cowboys 1.3 | Seahawks -1.0 | 49ers 0.6 | Jaguars 0.1 | Buccaneers 0.1 | Rams -0.5 | Texans -1.6 | Falcons -0.7 | Bengals -0.2 | -0.2 | -0.8 |
| Jaguars | 6.8 | 0.0 | Rams 0.0 | BYE - | Raiders 0.7 | Texans -0.9 | Chargers 1.4 | Cardinals 2.0 | Titans 0.0 | Colts 0.3 | Jets 0.4 | Broncos -2.2 | Colts 0.2 | 0.2 | -0.5 |
| Falcons | 7.2 | 0.4 | 49ers -0.1 | Dolphins 1.6 | Patriots -0.6 | Colts 0.6 | Panthers 0.3 | Saints -0.2 | Jets -1.2 | Seahawks -2.4 | Buccaneers -1.9 | Cardinals -0.8 | Rams -2.4 | -0.6 | -1.7 |
| Chiefs | 9.8 | -0.2 | Raiders -0.1 | Commanders 0.5 | Bills -1.1 | BYE - | Broncos -0.7 | Colts 0.7 | Cowboys 1.1 | Texans -0.9 | Chargers 0.9 | Titans -0.6 | Broncos -3.2 | -0.3 | -1.0 |
| Buccaneers | 6.4 | -0.6 | Lions -0.4 | Saints 0.0 | BYE - | Patriots -1.3 | Bills -3.1 | Rams -1.6 | Cardinals 0.4 | Saints -0.3 | Falcons -1.8 | Panthers 0.2 | Dolphins 0.5 | -0.8 | -0.4 |
| Bears | 6.0 | 0.5 | Saints -0.8 | Ravens 0.3 | Bengals 1.4 | Giants 0.9 | Vikings 0.0 | Steelers 0.2 | Eagles -1.4 | Packers -0.5 | Browns 1.5 | Packers 0.0 | 49ers -1.2 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
| Colts | 10.2 | -0.7 | Chargers -0.8 | Titans 0.1 | Steelers -0.6 | Falcons -1.7 | BYE - | Chiefs -2.7 | Texans -2.3 | Jaguars -2.7 | Seahawks -3.9 | 49ers -2.5 | Jaguars -3.4 | -2.0 | -3.3 |
| Browns | 11.2 | 0.0 | Dolphins -0.8 | Patriots -0.1 | BYE - | Jets 0.8 | Ravens 0.6 | Raiders 0.1 | 49ers 0.7 | Titans 1.0 | Bears 0.1 | Bills -0.9 | Steelers 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 49ers | 8.5 | -0.8 | Falcons -1.0 | Texans -1.3 | Giants -0.1 | Rams -0.8 | Cardinals 1.9 | Panthers 1.5 | Browns 2.0 | BYE - | Titans 1.0 | Colts 1.7 | Bears 1.3 | 0.6 | 1.3 |
| Vikings | 9.0 | 0.2 | Eagles -1.1 | Chargers 0.6 | Lions 0.0 | Ravens 1.3 | Bears 0.3 | Packers -0.7 | Seahawks -2.2 | Commanders -1.8 | Cowboys -0.5 | Giants -0.7 | Lions -1.3 | -0.5 | -0.8 |
| Rams | 6.8 | -0.1 | Jaguars -1.3 | BYE - | Saints 0.9 | 49ers 0.0 | Seahawks -0.8 | Buccaneers 1.0 | Panthers 0.9 | Cardinals 1.4 | Lions 0.8 | Seahawks -2.1 | Falcons -1.4 | -0.1 | -0.9 |
| Titans | 8.5 | -0.1 | Patriots -1.4 | Colts 0.5 | Chargers 0.6 | BYE - | Texans -1.2 | Seahawks -1.0 | Jaguars -0.6 | Browns 1.0 | 49ers -0.5 | Chiefs -1.4 | Saints 0.9 | -0.3 | -0.3 |
| Texans | 7.8 | -0.5 | Seahawks -1.5 | 49ers 1.0 | Broncos -0.9 | Jaguars -0.4 | Titans -2.5 | Bills -3.2 | Colts -1.6 | Chiefs -2.8 | Cardinals 0.5 | Raiders -0.9 | Chargers -0.2 | -1.2 | -0.2 |
| Seahawks | 9.3 | 0.1 | Texans -1.5 | BYE - | Commanders 0.0 | Cardinals 1.8 | Rams 0.7 | Titans 0.5 | Vikings 0.9 | Falcons 0.3 | Colts 1.2 | Rams 0.3 | Panthers 2.6 | 0.7 | 1.3 |
| Saints | 6.4 | -0.8 | Bears -1.6 | Buccaneers 0.6 | Rams -1.1 | Panthers -1.1 | BYE - | Falcons -2.3 | Dolphins -1.7 | Buccaneers -2.1 | Panthers -0.5 | Jets -1.2 | Titans -2.7 | -1.4 | -1.5 |
| Dolphins | 9.5 | -0.7 | Browns -1.6 | Falcons -0.6 | Ravens 0.8 | Bills -1.3 | Commanders 0.2 | BYE - | Saints 1.3 | Jets 1.0 | Steelers 0.8 | Bengals 1.5 | Buccaneers 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.9 |
| Patriots | 8.8 | -0.4 | Titans -1.8 | Browns 0.9 | Falcons -0.8 | Buccaneers 0.1 | Jets 0.8 | Bengals 0.8 | Giants 1.3 | BYE - | Bills -1.4 | Ravens -0.1 | Jets 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.4 |
| Raiders | 8.0 | -1.0 | Chiefs -2.1 | BYE - | Jaguars 0.5 | Broncos -1.5 | Cowboys 1.4 | Browns 2.3 | Chargers 1.4 | Broncos -0.9 | Eagles -1.1 | Texans -1.5 | Giants 1.1 | 0.0 | -0.5 |
| Giants | 8.5 | -0.7 | Broncos -2.3 | Eagles -0.5 | 49ers 0.7 | Bears -0.7 | Packers 0.0 | Lions 0.2 | Patriots 0.0 | BYE - | Commanders 0.1 | Vikings 0.6 | Raiders 1.0 | -0.1 | 0.6 |
| Bills | 9.7 | -0.2 | BYE - | Panthers 0.4 | Chiefs -1.5 | Dolphins 0.6 | Buccaneers 0.4 | Texans -1.5 | Steelers 0.1 | Bengals 0.4 | Patriots -0.9 | Browns 1.2 | Eagles -1.0 | -0.2 | -0.2 |
| Ravens | 9.0 | 0.1 | BYE - | Bears -0.4 | Dolphins 0.3 | Vikings 0.3 | Browns 1.9 | Jets 2.5 | Bengals 2.7 | Steelers 2.5 | Bengals 2.4 | Patriots 2.2 | Packers 2.1 | 1.7 | 2.2 |
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